Researcher: 20 Percent Chance Ebola Will Spread to US Within 2 Weeks

Newsmax Health ^ | September 11, 2014 | Charlotte Libov

[Qiviut]

A top Ebola researcher tells Newsmax Health there is a 20 percent chance that the deadly virus will begin spreading within the U.S. in the next two weeks.

Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, was part of a team of researchers that used a mathematical model to generate projections of the epidemic spread of Ebola worldwide. The scientists took into consideration daily airline passenger travel worldwide, information about the disease’s spread rate, and other factors.

“As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues to spread, isolated cases will likely make their way to the United States,” Longini told Newsmax Health. “Our latest estimates show there is a nearly 20 percent chance that this will occur within two weeks.”

In the long run, the probability the fatal disease will spread here is “almost inevitable,” added Longini, who collaborated in a new Ebola analysis published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks.

The tipping point may be disease levels in Nigeria, he says.

“There is not a high level of international travel from some of the affected countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone to the U.S. But Nigeria, where the outbreak has also spread, is linked to many countries across the globe,” said Longini.

As many as 6,000 passengers travel from Nigeria to the U.S. each week, according to the study.

Although cutting off air travel from Nigeria would seem logical, Longini said it would likely only delay the inevitable. “It might slow the transmission of the virus, but it doesn’t change the probability that someone would make it through to the U.S. You can’t quarantine an entire county, so infected people will get out and eventually make their way to the U.S.,” he said.

[Qiviut]

*ping*

[PGalt]

Thanks for posting. Health/life BUMP!

[donozark]

Billy Ayers is ecstatic...

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Bump.

America is apparently sleeping about this.

I believe.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Baloney.

It's already here.

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Nip]

I am sorry, but.

You can and, unfortunately, we must consider the probably of actually quarantining ourselves.

Next to impossible - yes. But take a realistic look at the alternative. While Ira Longini put the best possible spin in the article there was also a clear warning - the Ebola virus, like all viruses, can mutate. It is this mutation that could make a national quarantine necessary.

As for the US medical system being able to cope with Ebola; IMHO the doctor is too optimistic. The larger cities probably could; but, what about the “one horse” towns that still make up a large percentage of America? Those medical systems are, unfortunately, very small and hence very fragile. A force of a half dozen doctors and twenty nurses are going to provide 24/7 life support for 45 plus days while also providing “normal” care and preventing the spread of Ebola?

Fear mongering?

I hope that is what I am doing. But, if you take a hard look at the last worldwide pandemic, the Spanish Flu 1918-1920, the few areas that escaped that pandemic and its associated deaths were island nations/states that enforced a very strict quarantine.

My bottom line - it is better to discuss and plan for a crises over coffee and snacks than trying to do it a midnight when the crises is upon you.

[moovova]

100% chance it’s already here.

Obama made sure of that.

[unread]

You get an African Present...you get African diseases...

Why, it makes perfect sense to me.... I wonder what else we're going get... :(

[cuban leaf]

I thought I’d just touch this thread to say that Ebola is a distant side story to me. I don’t have TV so the only time I am even made aware of it is the headlines on FR. And its impact on 6+ billion people is statistically zero. And it is very localized. And there are rumblings of multiple cures - several americans, 35 monkeys, etc.

I’ll concern mysefl with it when the number reaches 100,000 and more than 5% of those are in the US. In the meantime, drunk driving and home accidents are a much bigger killer.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

I disagree.

America is completely sleeping about this, I believe.

[lilypad]

Yep just keep bringing over here in the name of “humanity”.

[Qiviut]

My ‘concern’ is for the low-info population and the illegals. There will be African-like behavior in those populations despite our “wonderful” healthcare here (not believing in Ebola, hiding sickness & death from authorities, etc.). I’m also concerned about our wonderful government who will take the opportunity to use Ebola to further demolish our freedoms and take advantage of the situation .... perhaps the occupant of the WH will also act like an African leader of the worst sort. He doesn’t listen to his military leaders (just ignored their advice again) so why would he, President Obola, listen to the medical authorities either? Just sayin’ .... if it is reported here outside of the containment sites (Emory, etc.) and among the general population .... I don’t care how localized .... the fear factor will kick in and all bets are off. Just think of Ferguson on Ebola ....

[BigpapaBo]

Ping

[IMR 4350]

Small towns are the least likely areas to be affected as people are already isolated.

One infected person in a large city getting on a crowded subway/public transportation could lead to it spreading to hundreds or even thousands in just a short time.

Small towns would have to worry about the infected fleeing from the cities.

The smaller the town the less likely the infected fleeing the cities would come there because there isn’t any place for them to stay once they get there as a lot of small towns don’t have motels or very few motel rooms.

[Slambat]

“there is a 20 percent chance that the deadly virus will begin spreading within the U.S. in the next two weeks.”

It’s intentional, it’s the Obamas ultimate get back at
whitey.

[cuban leaf]

America is completely sleeping about this, I believe.

---

They should be. I think it’s a manufactured issue.

[Qiviut]

It’s intentional, it’s the Obamas ultimate get back at whitey.

********************************

And I’m betting it’s the black population that will suffer the most.

[Slambat]

“I’m also concerned about our wonderful government who will take the opportunity to use Ebola to further demolish our freedoms and take advantage of the situation”

That’s the plan. You don’t really think this was
unintentional do you? The Obama brought it here just
for that purpose. He’s quadrupling down. Open borders,
destruction of the dollar, total control of the medical
industry, and now pestilence.