Posted on 09/12/2014 5:01:50 AM PDT by Qiviut
A top Ebola researcher tells Newsmax Health there is a 20 percent chance that the deadly virus will begin spreading within the U.S. in the next two weeks.
Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, was part of a team of researchers that used a mathematical model to generate projections of the epidemic spread of Ebola worldwide. The scientists took into consideration daily airline passenger travel worldwide, information about the disease’s spread rate, and other factors.
“As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues to spread, isolated cases will likely make their way to the United States,” Longini told Newsmax Health. “Our latest estimates show there is a nearly 20 percent chance that this will occur within two weeks.”
In the long run, the probability the fatal disease will spread here is “almost inevitable,” added Longini, who collaborated in a new Ebola analysis published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks.
The tipping point may be disease levels in Nigeria, he says.
“There is not a high level of international travel from some of the affected countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone to the U.S. But Nigeria, where the outbreak has also spread, is linked to many countries across the globe,” said Longini.
As many as 6,000 passengers travel from Nigeria to the U.S. each week, according to the study.
Although cutting off air travel from Nigeria would seem logical, Longini said it would likely only delay the inevitable. “It might slow the transmission of the virus, but it doesn’t change the probability that someone would make it through to the U.S. You can’t quarantine an entire county, so infected people will get out and eventually make their way to the U.S.,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmaxhealth.com ...
Truth be told, I expect the pale horse to be riding in the next two to ten years anyway. This may become an issue, but so far it’s like the solar flare.
Sure, I think the collapse of mankind is just around the corner, and this may be a part of it, but it’s too early to tell. If it is the pale horse, I’m not fighting it.
If it is the pale horse, I’m not fighting it.
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Me neither.
“I’ll concern mysefl with it when the number reaches 100,000 and more than 5% of those are in the US. In the meantime, drunk driving and home accidents are a much bigger killer.”
You’ll never know until it’s too late. Do you play
the violin? /s.
I had thought that had been the case, but it seems to be gaining momentum.
I believe the article is completely, 100% valid.
Small towns are the least likely areas to be affected as people are already isolated....Not as much as you assume. Interstates, the motor vehicle, small planes make us ALL vulnerable to this spread. The mail, UPS, FEDEX can also spread this scourge.
Delivery drivers. The elderly couple who take the trip of a lifetime to England to see where his Dad was stationed during the war and where the family comes from. They fly back with a small cold, and before you know it, the whole town is infected.
Oh noes!
Last week it was RELIABLY reported that there was and EXACTLY 18% chance of ebola coming to America.
Wow! What happened?
These predictions are so accurate, that the increase from 18% to 20% must put us all in a permanent tizzy!!!!
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
I’ll tell you what.
Today is September 12th. Two weeks from now, the weekend will be the 27th. That gives me one extra day.
Let’s see whether this has hit America by then.
I believe it’s likely. We shall see.
You’ll never know until it’s too late. Do you play
the violin? /s.
The signs are beyond clear. And this is not just about the US.
It is, quite literlly, our only hope in the mess we’ve spent thousands of years creating that is just now reaching it’s apex.
And it’s a long way down.
I know it’s inconceivable that the media would allow such a thing, but we are being set up. Count on it arriving just prior to the election.
I had thought that had been the case, but it seems to be gaining momentum.
Let’s see whether this has hit America by then.
My comments are not about the specific issue, but the Ebola “thing” holistically. For me it’s just another swine flu and bird flu thing. I found out we were at risk in those cases AFTER the risk went away. I was living my life in “ingnorant bliss” while everyone else was feeling stress to one degree or another because they were inundated with the information on the MSM every single day.
I wasn’t. I was going to work, practicing my bass and gigging, cutting down trees, building a deck and enjoying spectacular Kentucky Evenings at the fire pit. Getting rid of the MSM back in 1997 changed my life. I’m much happier now. And thanks to the Lord, MUCH more full of JOY regardless of what happens in this brief “video game”.
It is a distant side story because the powers have decided not to panic the public. Fine, but do a little study and you find out how much complete bs is being reported to downplay this story. If the powers were planning on this disease having no impact on 6 billion people then this disease would have followed medical protocol and people then areas, then countries would have been quarantined....at some point you have to question why.
I'll concern myself with it when the number reaches 100,000 and more than 5% of those are in the US. In the meantime, drunk driving and home accidents are a much bigger killer.
Cool, several computer models are showing that to happen in 2 weeks.
The larger cities cannot deal with this. On any given day in the cold and flu season, all hospital beds in a city may be full with no extra capacity as it is. Obama care is going to make this worse as it forces some hospitals to close their doors. An epidemic of any sort would swamp the system in days. An epidemic requiring the isolation that ebola does (cant put people in hallways, etc) will swamp it in hours.
Well, Obala’s speech was to declare war on his bad poll numbers .... since all is fair in love, war & politics, if the numbers don’t start coming up, he’ll move on from ISIS to using Ebola. It’s all politics all the time ... politics trumps American lives and he’s proved that by his actions (or lack thereof) repeatedly.
So basically an 80% chance it won’t.
So basically an 80% chance it won’t.
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‘Glass half full’ approach - sounds good to me. :-)
Cuban Leaf,
This spreadsheet will help you establish a timeline for the timing of things to come.
http://unsealedprophecy.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/prophecy_v4-8-5.xls
I am not a prophet. However, this spreadsheet is the culmination of the end times prophecy studies I have been doing since I became a believer in 1993. Start by reading the comments for the Summary Note in cell C2. Also read the comments for cells J11 and AG22. Other cells contain comments as well.
Feel free to follow up with me through email messages.
Blessings to you in your studies.
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