Brutally Cold 2014-15 Winter Shaping Up For The United States

Firsthand Weather ^ | 11SEP2014 | Matthew Holliday

[Jack Hydrazine]

The 2013-14 winter was a season that I will never be able to forget simply because of the kind of cold Arctic outbreaks that occurred throughout that year. What’s even more remarkable is that the 2013-14 winter became known as that winter that simply would not end, and even this summer, we have seen times when the mid and upper level pattern strongly resembled what would be typical of a winter pattern. We had pretty severe Arctic outbreaks in both 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters but for entirely different reasons than last winter. The main driver of last winter was the warm pool of above average waters over the northeastern Pacific, and this warm pool is still there! It is to blame for a lot of the volatility that we have seen this year in our temperatures across the United States.

You hear a lot about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) particularly during the winter months as those indices are very important to monitor each winter and can be the difference between a cold winter in the central and eastern United States and a very warm winter. Last year, it didn’t matter whether we had a positive or negative NAO/AO, and for those of you that followed my forecasts last winter, you may remember me telling you to ignore all the forecasts being put out that were predicting a big warmup simply because the AO/NAO wasn’t negative. It’s rare that you would hear me say something like that, but the reason that it didn’t matter was because of the warm pool in the northeastern Pacific. It led to a more volatile pattern, and even the regions further south and southeast that didn’t necessarily lock into a cold pattern experienced below average temperatures for a good portion of the winter because of the frequent Arctic blasts.

The 2014-15 winter could also be strongly influenced by the warm pool in the northeast Pacific if it persists going into the winter months, and based on some of the things that I have been looking at, chances are good that it will. This would likely lead to another brutally cold winter in the central and eastern United States while the western U.S. would have above average temperatures, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The good news is that I think central and southern California will receive above average precipitation, and that is due to a developing weak El Nino that will not necessarily be the main driver of this winter but will have some influence. This also means more precipitation across the southern states including the Southwest through the Southern Plains to parts of the Southeast. The regions where the cold air will be in place will have an increased chance at seeing more wintry weather this season, even in locations that typically don’t get any snow/ice.



When there is a warm pool of above average sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, you get ridging to develop up over Alaska and the western U.S. and troughing over the central and eastern United States. This can persist throughout the entire winter (just like last winter) if this warm pool remains in this same place throughout the season. This is what is considered a negative EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) pattern and typically brings cold air over a large portion of the United States. Due to some other factors that I will explain in a future article, I have reason to believe that the cold air could be more focused in the eastern third of the nation this winter.

There are still a lot of unknowns about this winter, and I am going to monitor everything closely through September and October before I put out a final 2014-15 winter forecast in late October or early November. There have been a lot of bogus forecasts being put out on this upcoming winter, and you just have to ignore them. I strongly believe that this could be another brutally cold winter, and if anything changes my mind, you’ll be the first to know. Remember, there are sites that call for brutally cold winters EVERY SINGLE YEAR just to get high views, but as most of you know, if I think something is going to happen, I tell you WHY.

Here are two links for you to check out: this one here will take you to my region-by-region breakdown on this upcoming winter, and this one here will take you to my detailed winter forecast that gets more into the meteorology behind the forecast. Also, be sure to like Firsthand Weather on Facebook, where I will be putting out updates on this upcoming winter and other weather events.

[factoryrat]

It's always hot in the summer, and it's always cold in the winter, no matter where you live on earth. To what degree the temperature swings is dictated by solar output.

[Pox]

Whenever I see forecasts such as this I tend to be of the opinion the opposite will occur, although I usually only believe such when I see such forecasts from government entities.

I am of the opinion this will be a mild winter after having such a brutal winter last year, but that’s just a personal opinion.

[Bernard Marx]

Yep, gonna be the coldest winter ever, unless it isn’t.

I remember the Indian Chief who warned his people the coming winter was going to be very, very cold.

"The Palefaces are cutting and stacking a lot more fire wood than usual," he told them.

[EinNYC]

I am sooo thrilled. We are burdened with an Alzheimer's poster girl for a school chancellor, the 70+ relic that mayor Comrade Bill DiBlahBlah trotted out of retirement. She kept the schools open last year during a blizzard where we got over a foot of snow, and then announced to the press, "It's a beautiful day." I had to take 3 buses to get to school, meaning 3 hours out in a blizzard, and 3 buses to get home. There were perhaps 3 kids in each of my classes, period. So she forced teachers, parents, and kids to endanger themselves with hazardous travel for no reason.

[Doomonyou]

I’m in yellow (Petaluma, 30 miles from the coast, 35 miles north of SF) and haven’t had any decent tomatoes in the garden for 3 years. this year in august we saw the sun come up all of TWO DAYS. It has been foggy every other day with the sun coming out around noon and the fog rolling in at six or seven. This is the middle of summer and its 65F-75F every day. I will say it got over 80F today for a change. back in the good old gore bull warming days we would have a few weeks in the nineties and several days over 100. this global cooling sucks.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

It’s going to be cold in winter? PANIC!!!!!

[Fai Mao]

“It’s always hot in the summer, and it’s always cold in the winter, no matter where you live on earth. To what degree the temperature swings is dictated by solar output.”

Unless you live 13 degrees north of the Equator and then it is just hot all the time

[Grams A]

First time ever I can remember when the temp never hit 100 in the Houston area. Heat index was well over that on many days, but not the temp.

[riri]

You must be in my neck o’ the woods. Admittedly, ready for the cool mornings and evenings to come but no where near ready to start winter. Not that I am ever really ready for winter but Early September makes for a loooong winter. Guess I can live with 100 a few more weeks.

[reefdiver]

This long term weather forecasting has very seldom produced the expected results.
I am an avid rider of snowmobiles, I belong to the same club since I was 16. Over 40 years. We have tried to depend on all sorts of weather forecasting to schedule club rides or to buy a new machine here in up state ny. It’s a hit and miss business. They just don’t know.
I’m doing the normal things I always do. Get the firewood in, check everyone’s snow tires, make sure the cars are ready and stocked with emergency kits, storm windows ready to go up. Snow shovels ready to work. But that’s about it. If it snows I’ll ride, but I didn’t buy a new Ski Doo.

[preacher]

Imagine at how much colder it would be without of all of this global warming we’re having, I guess.

[lonevoice]

This would likely lead to another brutally cold winter in the central and eastern United States while the western U.S. would have above average temperatures, particularly in the Pacific Northwest.

:-)

[skinkinthegrass]

summer is warm; sometimes hot! 😉

[Cymbaline]

It’s the Polar Vortex, which is caused by global warming, and it’s still you Americans’ fault for not driving a Prius.

[Lexinom]

Fires?

[outofsalt]

I hear New England will have to go to Canada to beg for heating oil thanks to the brilliant energy policies of obama’s EPA.
No, no, no...It's an opportunity for families to get closer, don't ya know?

[T-Bird45]

Ha ha! I live in the orange zone and I’ve got enough firewood to last for two years. Life is good.

Your IP address has been noted and a truck is en route from North Dakota to re-balance the supply chain.

:-)

[liberalh8ter]

Obama will have to increase temperatures.......can't have the voters angry in November.

[kearnyirish2]

I remember that dopiness; when public schools’ primary purpose is daycare (and education is secondary, or not even on the agenda), then there is a lot of pressure (normally from parents) to stay open.

If this will be a cold winter I hope it sets in before the mid-term, so Americans can watch their income get eaten up by heating costs.

[kearnyirish2]

Just a few short years ago (within the last five) here in the northeast we had a non-winter; the worst snow storm was literally a Halloween surprise (some towns banned trick-or-treating due to the number of wires down - there were still so many leaves in the trees that they were weighed down and took wires with them). The rest of that winter we had almost no snow, and in terms of temperatures fall just morphed into spring.

I don’t think I’ve spent so little on heating in the dozen+ years I’ve had my home...