Fortunately, there are ways to put the screws to Russia without going to war.
For example, Russia is totally dependent on oil revenues (90%), so simply by ramping up North American production, or just talking about it, we can depress the price of oil for years to come, which jacks Russia around like you wouldn’t believe. (The Athabasca Oil Sands are expected to double their output in the next 5 years to over 5 million barrels/day).
Similarly, Russian can be banned from all major sporting events. The World Cup will be revoked, and if you really want to drive them bonkers, kick all Russian athletes out of the Olympics. That will get their attention.
Bit by bit, Russia will be isolated in ways that it doesn’t want or like. And that’s how it should be - if Russia doesn’t want to behave like a civilized country, it won’t be allowed to be part of the civilized world.
all this talk of territory and war and sanctions begs the question...... how is a declining Mother Russia going to survive the apathy that is destroying the will to be within?
Putin’s problem is existential. The current activity is to deflect attention from the problem
And thats how it should be - if Russia doesnt want to behave like a civilized country, it wont be allowed to be part of the civilized world.
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Putin could care less. His grand strategy is to restore Russian power, influence, and hegemony. If you’re Putin, you’ve got to be saying to yourself “the time is now”. The U.S. has a weak leader who wishes to dimish its power and see the country recede from an active role in the world. That is just an indisputable fact. So right now, at the present time at least, Russia has a relatively good hand and a weak opponent.
I’m not defending Putin, just being realistic about the strength of his position and acknowledging the reality of his true objectives. The Russians are not fools; unlike the hapless Obama, they’re good chess players who have thought through multiple scenarios. They’re ready for the game and they’re not the JV team.
Additionally, I am sure sanctions and international distancing have done much to make the likes of Iran and North Korea behave, right? Worked wonders for those countries, thus I am sure the same magic will work for Russia. /sarc
Or threatening to put local hoodlums in jail (a sanction on their freedom). Quite successful in stopping crime, right?
So far all that these sanctions have done is bump up Putin's approval ratings in Russia, and done nothing to stop his nefarious intent for Ukraine. If the Russians are going to lose anyway, why not get a chunk of land in the process?
Well, what is needed is for strong leadership by the US and Europe. With that, even sanctions can work when there's veritable leadership. Unfortunately the US falls short on that, and Europe is dithering (with the Germans appearing to be under Russia's thumb). This enables Putin to continue his monstrous acts, and the only response from the West are sanctions that will either not have enough effect, or may have such an effect that it will make no sense.for Russia not to finish their ugly play.
What will Putin do with all of the Russian NHL players?