Posted on 08/08/2014 4:40:40 AM PDT by Kaslin
The standard thing to say about the various Republican primaries this year is that the tea party movement has lost one race after another. That's a defensible conclusion but also an oversimplification.
I see more turbulence and undercurrents among Republican primary voters than usual. The evidence is that incumbents -- both those the mainstream media call tea partyers and those they call the party establishment -- have been prevailing by tenuous margins in primaries that in the pre-tea party years would almost certainly not have been seriously contested.
Take Kansas. There Sen. Pat Roberts was renominated over challenger Dr. Milton Wolf by just a 48 percent to 40 percent margin -- a victory, but an embarrassingly low margin for someone who has been in Congress for 34 years.
Wolf, a second cousin of President Obama, made much of the fact that Roberts maintains only a nominal residence in the state. But the doctor was hurt when it was revealed that he circulated X-rays of wounded patients with macabre comments.
Roberts, perhaps awakened by the near-defeat of fellow septuagenarian and longtime incumbent Thad Cochran in Mississippi, worked hard in affluent Johnson County, just outside Kansas City, which casts one-fifth of the primary vote. He held Wolf to a 107-vote margin there and carried 92 of the other 104 counties.
Also renominated was Gov. Sam Brownback, by 63 percent to 37 percent. Brownback's push for tax cuts has been controversial; critics charge it hasn't stimulated growth and has forced the state to cut needed spending. Some 100 current and past Republicans officials signed a letter supporting his Democratic opponent.
This is the latest chapter in a long-simmering intra-party fight between conservatives and moderates. Brownback prevailed, but by a margin that suggests problems in November.
Kansas also saw serious challenges of incumbents in two of its four congressional districts. In the 1st District, Tim Huelskamp, a frequent rebel against the House Republican leadership, won, but by only 54 percent to 46 percent.
There was a clearer verdict in the Wichita-centered 4th District, where incumbent Mike Pompeo led his predecessor, Tom Tiahrt, by 63 percent to 37 percent.
Tiahrt ran as a champion of earmarks, arguing they were necessary to help Wichita's troubled private plane industry. Pompeo pledged no earmarks, and various conservative groups supported each candidate.
The lesson from these results: Many Republicans are skittish about backbench rebellions that produced the government shutdown and hurt the party in the polls; many more are pleased to see earmarks go, even when they arguably help the local community.
Michigan had significant Republican primaries in six congressional districts. House Energy and Commerce Chairman Fred Upton, who has faced conservative challenges before, won with 71 percent in the 6th District.
In the 4th District, John Molenaar, endorsed by incumbent retiring Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp, beat self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell by 52 percent to 36 percent. In the 8th District vacated by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, moderate Mike Bishop beat tea-party-identified Tom McMillin, 60 percent to 40 percent.
You could chalk these up as establishment victories. But don't count business-supported Dave Trott's 66 percent to 34 percent pounding of incumbent reindeer farmer and Santa Claus impersonator Kerry Bentivolio in the 11th District. He was a fluke winner two years ago and didn't put up much of a fight this time. And conservative incumbents in the 1st and 7th districts won with 70 percent of the vote or more.
In the Grand Rapids 3rd District, local and national business groups spent big money on challenger Brian Ellis. But he failed to oust incumbent Justin Amash, who makes a practice of tweeting his reasons for his votes, often against the party leadership, on every roll call.
On foreign policy, Amash takes a stand much like Sen. Rand Paul's, and he recently voted against funding Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. He won by 57 percent to 43 percent, a decisive margin but no landslide for an incumbent in a primary -- and he characteristically refused to take his opponent's congratulatory phone call.
Republican primary turnout continues to be more robust than Democratic turnout, a good omen for the party in November. And Republican primary voters seem reluctant to vote for firebrands who lose general elections or provoke government shutdowns.
But they are also more open to questioning incumbents. It's as if they are seeking a way forward to policies with voter appeal, with no clear idea of how to get there.
“Tea Party candidates are percieved as radicals”.....
Guess they have that wrong, The Tea Party candidates are those who are sick and tired of RHINO’s that have become demodummies, thus no longer representing the conservatives. The RHINO’s are deathly afraid they will loose their long term hold on their cushy jobs, high and underhanded living.
It’s well past time for TERM LIMITS for all!
I voted for Carr and so did my husband, but I have a question. Does Alexander have to face the rat challenger in November? If so then I will have to hold my nose and vote for him. No way will I let a rat win
My point is that there are a lot of basically conservative people who would seem to be potential Tea Party supporters, but somehow they have gotten such a wrong impression of what it stands for because they are not political junkies and basically get all their news from the MSM.
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An overall very good posting. I agree. Thanks.
Look at the big picture! See the percentage voting against these RINOs! It is rising each election! We will prevail.....just wait and see!
He does have to face another Democrat in the general.
Lamar! is now claiming a 60 percent approval rating on Fox after just getting 49 percent in an election.
Good luck with that loser. My condolences.
Blame the state Republican Parties who refuse to fix the problem of “open” primaries, where Democrats are authorized to join in with the Repubs (and they do) to vote for the most “liberal” Republican on the ballot.
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That’s a major problem in Texas. Now that Dewhurst has lost his primary race, I’m ‘hoping’ new leadership will address this major flaw in elections and change to closed elections.
too many delusional opportunists disguised as “tea party”.
There are good candidates but they are few and far between.
The success of the tea party can be measured in the shift in the debates. Candidates know it is not safe to more to the left. Those that are threated with loss simply do not run.
Having met some tea party candidates running in local elections, (some) give the direct impression of being just plain nuts.
I just don’t think trying to work within the Republican Party is going to work anymore.
There needs to be a new party, with dynamic leadership. There never has been a time when so many Americans have been disgusted with both parties.
Without the Tea Party, 15 million illegals would have amnesty today.
That story was a very polite was of saying most Republicans are willfully uninformed dipsticks. They argue with folks like us who study politics, and get angry and stomp away when presented with facts.
They are essentially hairless monkeys trained to avoid pooping in the living room.
I understand your sentiment. I’m merely reporting the results of my observations among what I see as the local GOPc
The TEA Party and Senate Conservatives made a huge mistake in pushing forward too many candidates and not vetting them sufficiently, again. We do better winning with great individuals (Lee, Cruz, Scott) who then make it easier for those who follow. Let’s keep our focus on taking over the House from which more qualified Senatorial candidates arise.
You miss the point of my story entirely, and your mean-spirited response is a good indication of why more Republicans aren't on board.
I like this lady, which is why I am dating her. (So what does that make ME? You've managed to insult two people with one assertion.)
This lady has not been at all resistant to my political ideas. In fact, she is coming around. In terms of her politics, I saw her as someone who could be won over (which she is proving to be), whereas you would have seen her as someone worth convincing that Tea Party supporters are the crazy extremist a-holes that RINOs make them out to be.
The point is that I am the first actual Tea Party supporter she has met. So your very impolite description of her as a hairless monkey and willfully uninformed dipstick -- who argues with folks like us who study politics, and then gets angry and stomps away when presented with facts -- is wrong, way out of line, and very unproductive.
I'll bet you're real successful turning less informed Republicans into potential Tea Party supporters with your (not) winning attitude and approach to (not) winning friends and influencing people.
Do me (and the conservative movement) a favor. Next time you meet a Republican who has a problem with the Tea Party, just keep your mouth shut and try to refer them to someone who knows how to recognize a recruiting opportunity when they see one.
Some suggested summer reading:
And we won in Mississippi too with mcDaniel. But they cheated us out of that one and probably some of the others as well.
The establishment can only pull those stunts as a one off or up to a point.
They can only “Thad” so much before it fails as the electorate establishes an immunity.
I agree with the prior comment about the improper vetting. Vote splitters are the same as having an all democrat party race.
The Democrat is not that bad: "While serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, Travis received the endorsements of the National Rifle Association (NRA), earning an “A-plus” pro-gun voting record, and the National Right to Life for his “exemplary pro-life record.” He also received the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Spirit of Enterprise Award in recognition of his pro-business record."
He's also endorsed by Democrats for Life.
It might cost us the Senate, but if you're inclined to vote on princple rather than party, Travis Childers is an entirely palatable option.
the way it is now, having a GOPe candidate is the same as having an all RAT race.
You can add their so-called own “fellow Republicans” to that list who have trashed the tea party as well. Bunch of low information, kool-aid drinking statist.
It’s really not that much different than a 100 yrs. ago. aside from a few cases. Oh, you don’t have the smoke filled rooms where deals are cut, money is exchanged, promises of contracts and positions and candidates then picked by Party bosses. Now you have the RNC and the senate and house republican election mechanisms which are supposed to “remain neutral” in primaries out and out campaigning for the GOPE selection.
Once that selection is made money, resources, national and state parties are directed to support said selection to ensure that the people really have little to no say. As I said sure you knock one of these slime bags out every now and then but it’s not often. Primaries are a joke at this point and open primaries even more so.
We have no say but like to think we do and they want us to keep thinking that way, it’s worked so far.
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