Posted on 06/25/2014 5:47:58 AM PDT by kristinn
The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy's worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.
While the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government's first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.
The difference between the second and third estimates was the largest on records going back to 1976, the Commerce Department said.
Economists had expected growth to be revised to show it contracting at a 1.7 percent rate. Sharp revisions to GDP numbers are not unusual as the government does not have complete data when it makes its initial and preliminary estimates.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
You've been doing that for about as long as Obama has been doing that. But the economy just shrank 2.9%, gas prices are high, inflation is hitting everything I buy, I haven't had a raise in years, and the percentage of people out of the workforce is the highest it's been in decades.
But you have graphs. You have figures. You have hard data.
Who should I believe? The official data? Or my lyin' eyes?
LOL! Indeed :-)
I’ve made a ton of money in equities and fixed income by looking at the data I cite so you can decided for yourself. Frankly I don’t really care if you choose to be ignorant. I’m trying to educate you. Your choice if you want to listen.
And spare me the Obama shill crap. That’s intellectually lazy. Unfortunately par for the course around here.
they get it both ways....whatever needs to be explained, they'll twist every little fact to suit it...
Yeah, but there was no tea party then. In think we are in truly new territory now. The mindset on the right has changed. Even here on FR we grumbled during the Bush years but weren’t as serious as we could or should have been about holding the Republicans accountable. It think that has changed.
“you print paper money....and it loses value.
taxation by inflation.”
only a fruitcake, nutjob, conspiracy theorist would question the integrity and validity of the federal reserve.
at least, that’s what I’ve read.
“...but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.”
I’d fly my ROFLCopter in response, but I can’t afford the gas for it anymore.
Thanks, Obama!
Man, I don’t know. If on average every employee spent 10 minutes a work day diverted by that story...
There are a few really good TV shows now, but for the most part, I’m “more than dubious”!!!
Actually a lot of us expected this as ObozoCare became a reality.
Disposable family income after paying for ObozoCare becomes slim or none.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3172538/posts
Obamacare Will Suck the Life Out of the Economy
CNBC ^ | 6/26/14 | Edward Morrissey
Posted on 6/26/2014 5:33:37 AM by SoFloFreeper
The word “unexpectedly” for negative economic reports has become a much-mocked cliché in the media over the past five-plus years of recovery, but this week’s final look at first-quarter economic growth deserves an exception. First estimated at a meager 0.1 percent annualized rate, and then downwardly revised to -1.0 percent in May, most economists expected a smaller revision to the downside – in the -1.5 percent-1.8 percent range.
Heh, I remember W.T. arguing some time back that Census Bureau data is the next thing to the Word of God (my description of W.T.’s view), because it comes from career public service employees. Then the Census Bureau data scandal came along...
More to the point here, seriously, I have come to believe both “economic data sets” (W.T.’s data, and what the rest of us experience and / or see as we simply look around), are generally valid, each for it’s own part of a sort of parallel reality.
There are a couple ways of looking at it. One breaks the world down into what I’ll call “Economic Reality 1”, which is where most productive families, small businesses, etc., exist, and which (to most Freepers anyway) needs no explanation. “Economic Reality 2” is a much more complex, and sometimes even bizarre world where non-productive activities somehow become a big part of GDP, economic statistics are “managed” for political and other purposes (thanks, kabar, for your explanation regarding health care spending!), huge deficits can be kicked down the road “indefinitely”, and much money exists on computers... somewhere...
Another way to look at it has already been suggested by several posters: Essentially, “Economic Reality One” is the same as described above, and “Economic Reality Two” is the “Upper Class” economy, say, those in the top 5% income bracket (to which I assume W.T. belongs.) “#1” can pretty much stink, while “#2” is doing fine — well enough to make the overall numbers appear ok.
A key here is that I am not attempting to refute the idea of a “trickle down” economy where upper income earners do well, and thereby pick up the middle and lower classes. However, what is rarely discussed is that while “trickle down” can work well in certain economies (Reagan, 1980’s), it doesn’t work in MOST systems. This is a complex subject — here I’ll just give the above as my opinion, which one may or may not agree with. And, I’ll add that present circumstances and gov’t policies are not conducive to a successful trickle down economy.
Neither are current policies conducive to individuals from the lower classes succeeding and making it into the top 5%. Crony capitalism and other policies exist to strengthen the position of the upper class, at the expense of the middle. (”Bootstrap” success still occurs in the US, it is just much harder for most, than in the recent past. Of several quite successful entrepeneurs I know, even with all the experience they gained along the way, none of them thinks they could today pull off the sort of “up from virtually nothing” endeavor that they succeeeded so well in.) When the middle class sees itself slipping, with little hope of upward success, there is a BIG problem, regardless of what data W.T. may post.
But, back to my main point, in either way of thinking of it, “Reality Two” can almost be it’s own world, and one can be quite successful in it for quite some time, even though the overall system may not be sustainable in the long run, or though the overall system is fundamentally flawed or weak. A sort of crude analogy is the Court of the Emporer with no clothes: So long as the Court behaves as if nothing is amiss, and no one / nothing else intrudes, the Court will most likely function just fine.
Eventually though, something or someone WILL intrude.
“Almost” is not 100%. In the long run, in our system, as ever more wealth is drained from the middle, the overall system, both economic and political, becomes more unstable. If the drainage is gradual, the system may stagger along for a long time, but, sooner or later, a “bubble” collapses, or some outside jolt will occur, breaking down the security / isolation of Reality 2. “2”, indeed, may well collapse further than Reality 1, or it may simply be destroyed by members of Reality 1. Innumerable revolutions in history, such as the French Revolution, come to mind.
Good post. I’m reading in an airport lounge so bear with me if I miss something. I might be in “reality 2” but there is a whole other reality of the top %1 and above. I deal with hedge fund investors on a daily basis as well as senior investment bankers and C level managers. They live in the world of which you speak. I make a good living but don’t reap the benefits of being able to set my own rules that are approved by complicit boards. There is a parabolic difference between top 5% and top 1%. I’ve seen shocking stuff done by those in that position. Stuff that would put them in jail if it was exposed. But they are all in on it together.
That being the case, I also deal with economic data on a daily basis. I’m in it all day long as it drives decision making at my organization. I have to piece it all together. My opinions of the economy are not driven by my personal reality. As I’ve said you guys can choose to ignore the data and constantly believe we are about to go down the tubes. Your choice. Maybe someday you’ll be right. But the data doesn’t show it and it’s why the equities markets are near all time highs.
Good discussion thanks.
We can only hope.
Well said. I’ve never doubted the data or interpretations provided by Torch, but I just don’t see the silver linings regarding long term recovery. There is nothing in my “economic reality” (or anyone I know) to suggest anything of the sort. Hopefully I am wrong.
I am not so glum. America has invented an amazingly resilient system of government. There have been many episodes in our nations history in which we could have broken up. It’s true that crony capitalism is destroying our economy.
By crony capitalism I mean the intersection between politics and business in which the American political system is manipulated to benefit the few at the expense of the many. It’s been going on for a long time.
Yet, more and more Americans recognize the system as broken. There is a core 30-35% who are true believers and will never abandon the state. The balance is made up of conservatives and Mushies. The Mushies represent those swing voters who pay enough attention to vote, but too little attention to discern.
For us the challenge is to market conservative ideas, which are natural ideas, to the Mushies. The Mushies are afraid and go to the Mommy Party for what it provides. But, when the Mommy Party is failing they run to the Daddy Party. This is a historic opportunity for us and the Establishment knows it.
Millenials could end up being a very conservative generation. While they embrace multi-culturalism despite it’s lies, denial of history, and harm, they also play online games in which trading and economic success is as critical as in-game skills. What’s making the Clintons look like such buffoons is that they’re using the 20th century playbook in the 21st century.
We have the Internet and we can instantly find their lies. They look silly and don’t know it. Millenials can see that the emperor has no clothes.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/04/24/the-glory-of-the-guardians-us-economics-coverage/
The recent -2.9 percent decline is actually -5.9? wow. It seems awhile ago they decided to redo the way the GDP is calculated........yet no one is screaming bloody murder?
JOBS PAYING WHAT
Did you hear the one about the shoe salesmen who arrive in Africa? One guy phones the office and says, “Get me the next flight out of here. These people don’t wear shoes.” The other guy calls his office and says, “Send 1000 pairs of shoes, these people don’t even wear shoes!”
Latinos don’t vote very much, but if we got the ones who want smaller government to vote for us wouldn’t that be good? Same thing with blacks. We need conservative populism. It’s an opportunity for us.
Consider this: over the last century progressives have controlled the schools, the media and most of the government, yet conservatives and conservatism still holds its own and in many cases thrives. Why is that?
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