Arkansas Poll: Pryor 51, Cotton 40

Weekly Standard ^ | May 12, 2014 | MICHAEL WARREN

[wmap]

A new poll of registered voters in Arkansas shows Democratic sentaor Mark Pryor leading his Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, by 11 points. Pryor receives 51 percent support,

[Liz]

MARK PRYOR RECEPIENT OF COVETED "OBAMA RUBBER STAMP AWARD" Pryor doesn’t waver; said he would vote for Obamacare all over again. That may be why he recently got the coveted title of Obama’s Rubber Stamp. But a few quotes and some sideline analysis never carry quite the same impact as hearing things directly from the horse’s mouth. So let’s go to the video, where Pryor is asked if, knowing what he knows now, he would still have voted for Obamacare in 2009. Take it away, Senator.VIDEO at hotair.com web site.

[deport]

Primary elections is May 20, with runoff on June 10,
if needed in any of the races.

[InterceptPoint]

Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)

That's true. Here are the numbers from the PDF:

Democrat 30
Republican 23
Independent 46

As a point of reference here is some polling data from 2/2/14 published by TheCityWire.com in this article:

Poll numbers confirm ‘Independent’ streak among Arkansas voters

The poll was conducted on Feb. 12, 2014 by Little Rock-based Impact Management Group who polled 1,202 likely Arkansas voters. Here is a summary of their findings:

How they are registered

Democrat 39
Republican 36
Independent 26

How they would vote for a generic candidate

Democrat 35
Republican 43
Don't know 22

From the article:

A poll conducted this month shows that 43% of voters would vote for an unnamed, generic Republican candidate, while 35% would vote for the Democrat and 22% still have not made up their minds.The same poll asked respondents to identify the political party they are most closely affiliated with. In response, 39% said Democrat, while only 36% said Republican and 26% said independent.

[BigEdLB]

Marist is dubious

[VOR78]

He probably isn’t. That said, Cotton needs to do a better job of connecting Pryor with Obama. If I were running Cotton’s campaign, every ad I ran would be hitting Pryor on Obamacare and the Dems gun control push last year and resulting ammo shortages, especially 22LR which everyone uses.

[kcvl]

NBC poll gives Mark Pryor 11-point lead over Tom Cotton in race for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson leads Ross

Pryor also is getting the support of 32 percent of voters who disapprove of President Obama’s job in Arkansas.

While Pryor leads the Senate general election contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson has a seven-point advantage in the state’s gubernatorial contest over Democrat Mike Ross, 49 percent to 42 percent.

The reason why both Pryor and Hutchinson are ahead in their statewide races: Both men are leading among independents – Pryor has a seven-point edge over Cotton here (48 percent to 41 percent), and Hutchinson has a 15-point advantage (52 percent to 37 percent).

“These are competitive states as far as the general is concerned”

In addition, Pryor (with a 50 percent to 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating) is viewed in a more positive light than Cotton is (38 percent to 39 percent) among voters.

The poll in Arkansas was done May 4, before President Obama’s visit to Arkansas

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2014/05/12/nbc-poll-gives-mark-pryor-11-point-lead-over-tom-cotton-in-race-for-us-senate-hutchinson-leads-ross

********

46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him. Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him. 11% are unsure how to rate him.

47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him. Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him. 15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton. 38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him. 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton. 31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton. 13% are unsure how to rate him.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/512-arkansas-pryor-leads-for-u-s-senate-hutchinson-ahead-for-governor/#sthash.Lj8kffTM.dpuf

Key points:
•Party ID. A partisan divide exists. Most Democrats — 89% — back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton. Among Republicans, most — 85% — support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor. Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
•Gender. There is a gender gap. A majority of women voters — 55% — are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton. Men divide. 46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — backs Cotton.
•Race. While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide. 46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — are for Cotton.
•White Evangelical Christians. Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
•President Obama. Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton. Among voters who disapprove of the president’s performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.

“So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cotton’s challenge,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obama’s approval rating at 33% in the state.”

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/ARPolls/AR140430/Complete%20May%202014%20Arkansas%20NBC%20News__Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf

Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course

68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction. 27% believe it is on track. An additional 5% are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions. 69% believe the nation is off track. 27% say it is on course. Four percent are unsure.

[deport]

Pryor may well win since he’s been the Senator since 2003. But AR has a
split gov. with all 4 CDs GOP, 1 of the 2 Senators a GOP, Gov & AG are Dems, LtGov
and SOS are GOP, GOP has advantage in both the state House and Senate. True they did
vote Obama and Biden in 2008.

[TWhiteBear]

‘NBC & Marist = GARBAGE’
‘Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)’

Both comments bear repeating, but not excusing lethargy on the part of Conservatives.
Read up on the issues, go to meetings, try to convince and persuade and not to harangue,
and get active.
Here are some statements on the issues by Tom Cotton.
‘Our taxes are too high and too complicated. The individual and corporate tax codes distort the financial decisions of individuals and businesses, leading them to base spending, investment, and saving on tax considerations, not economic benefits. I will work in Congress to reduce our taxes and simplify our tax code to return power from Washington to taxpayers.
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/tax-reform
‘Beware of politicians who promise to create jobs, because only businesses and entrepreneurs—not politicians—can create jobs. What government can and should do is ensure a free-market, job-friendly environment where businesses and entrepreneurs have the certainty and incentives to invest, innovate, grow, and hire.

In Congress, I will support pro-growth policies that give the private sector the confidence and certainty to start hiring again. Job creators need a tax code that is permanent, fair, and simple with low rates. They need federal bureaucrats to get off their backs and stand by their sides. And they need a federal government that doesn’t spend, borrow, and inflate its way to bankruptcy.
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/economy-and-jobs
‘I strongly oppose all forms of a “cap and trade” schemes, which are nothing more than a massive new tax on energy. Cap and trade would handcuff our economy and make America less competitive in the world, because emerging markets like China and India will never adopt such a destructive tax. Manufacturers will move to those countries, which will also cost American jobs. I will fight tirelessly against cap and trade, both in Congress and against the EPA’s abusive use of the Clean Air Act to implement cap and trade unilaterally.’
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/energy
TWB

[navysealdad]

Pryor is doing what Obama did and democrats are good doing, is negative ads early to get your opponents negative numbers up. He better wake up.

[VOR78]

McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.

[VOR78]

Agreed. Although I do think Cotton is going to win, as this state has been trending GOP, he’s been allowing Pryor to control the debate and turn this into a contest where it shouldn’t be.

[deport]

McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.

******************

Yep, my bad. I misread some data I was looking at.

Thanks for the correction..

[rwfromkansas]

As 2012 showed, crying “weighting” can mean nothing. But, due to the demographics being way off from the apparent voting population, I think this time it is legitimate.

But, we should be careful. In 2012 every poll was skewed Dem. Well, that’s because the electorate was more Dem that year...

[kcvl]

U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton weds over weekend

March 17, 2014

Republican Senate hopeful and U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton has married his girlfriend during a small ceremony over the weekend.

Cotton’s Senate campaign said the freshman lawmaker married Anna Peckham, an attorney from Virginia, at a small wedding ceremony with family and close friends on Saturday. The two are currently on a honeymoon during the congressional recess, campaign spokesman David Ray said.

Ray declined to say where the wedding was held or where the couple was honeymooning.

The two have been engaged since late 2013. Ray said they plan to live and raise their family in Arkansas.

Cotton was elected in 2012 to represent south Arkansas’ 4th Congressional District. He announced in August he would challenge Democratic U.S. Sen Mark Pryor.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2014/mar/17/arkansas-us-rep-tom-cotton-weds-over-weekend/

[paul544]

Bingo! Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic. Didn’t work in 2012 and isn’t going to work now. You have to actually go and work for it.

[Fightin Whitey]

I see this scornful rejection of polls all the time by conservatives.

Indeed there are some lousy polls but when registered voters are canvassed the results tend to be reasonably close.

I hope to goodness Cotton can win this thing and have sent money to help him do so.

The sad fact is that Romney was right about ONE thing: you got pretty close to half the electorate who would rather get something, anything, for free than even think about pulling their own weight.

[BipolarBob]

Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic.

I agree but it is an important part. Pryor has plenty on his voting record to throw out there. Cotton needs a campaign manager that knows the ropes.

[kevkrom]

It’s registered voters, not likely voters, which skews results toward Democrats. With that in mind, even with favorable conditions, Pryor is barely above 50%, not a great place for an incumbent to be.

[buckalfa]

"Bingo! Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic."

Pretty much. I even get the gut feeling the Dems could add to their Senate majority and even take back the House despite the polls. The GOP finds itself on the brink of civil war and can only articulate what they are against, not what they stand for. I would be all for an electoral rout of the GOPe to purge their elitists, but the nation would not survive further one party control by the communists.

[nhwingut]

This is troubling. We can blow it off as biased all we want. But this lines up with the NY Times poll that showed Pryor 10 points up.

Hard to grasp. Arkansas through out Blanche Lincoln a few years ago and nothing has changed with Obamacare for the better, only worse.

I don’t know Arkansas but maybe Pryor is one of those old southern Dem dynasty names like Landrieu which allows them to stay in power despite a rightward shifting electorate.