Posted on 03/18/2014 5:14:03 AM PDT by blam
This Is The Most Plausible Theory For The Plane's Disappearance We've Heard Yet...
Henry Blodget
Mar. 18, 2014, 6:01 AM
Over the past 10 days, investigators and observers have come up with ever-more elaborate theories for what might have happened to Malaysia Airways Flight 370.
What was originally assumed to have been a tragic mid-air explosion or mechanical problem soon bloomed into a criminal investigation of a meticulously planned hijacking, commandeering, or otherwise stealing of a fully loaded commercial 777 in mid-air.
The perpetrator(s) knew the plane so well, one of the latest theories goes, that they climbed through a trap door outside the cockpit to reach circuit breakers necessary to shut down one of the communication's systems. They shut down the transponder. They made the plane disappear and fooled the world into thinking it had crashed. They flew one of two "arcs" for 7 hours — a "southern route" over the Indian Ocean on which, eventually, they crashed the plane in the ocean in a complicated suicide, and a "northern route" in which, perhaps, they slipped past land-based radar, flew to a destination in central Asia, and landed, perhaps preparing to use the plane again soon for a terrorist attack or other mission. This latter plan was executed so flawlessly, one observer theorized, that Flight 370 slipped in behind another commercial airliner for much of the route so as not to be noticed on radar.
The pilots' houses have been searched. Terrorist connections have been probed. Passenger backgrounds and possible motives have been scrutinized. And still, 10 days after the plane disappeared, we know nothing.
Perhaps that's because we're overthinking it.
A few days ago, a former pilot named Chris Goodfellow articulated an entirely different theory on Google+.
This theory fits the facts.
And it's the most plausible yet:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The oil rig worker said he thinks he saw the plane on fire in the air. Never heard any more about that.
Makes sense to a non-aircraft educated person.
Good article. Makes sense.
I am holding on to my SPACE ALIENS theory
cue the “aliens” guy
“that Flight 370 slipped in behind another commercial airliner for much of the route so as not to be noticed on radar. “
I don’t think that would help. If they were that close, someone would notice.
What on takeoff would cause tires to hit 500 degrees?
I think it tailgated a Portugal bound jet and landed in Pakistan a long time ago.
You would think. Would the pilot being tailgated question it and call it in?
Excerpt:
And it’s one of the most plausible yet:
Shortly after takeoff, as Malaysia 370 was flying out over the ocean, just after the co-pilot gave his final “Good night” sign-off to Malaysia air traffic control, smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff
The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: Turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.
The closest appropriate airport was called Pulau Langkawi. It had a massive 13,000-foot runway. The captain programmed the destination into the flight computer. The auto-pilot turned the plane west and put it on a course right for the runway (the same heading the plane turned to)
The captain and co-pilot tried to find the source of the smoke and fire. They switched off electrical “busses” to try to isolate it, in the process turning off systems like the transponder and ACARs automated update system (but not, presumably, the auto-pilot, which was flying the plane). They did not issue a distress call, because in a mid-air emergency your priorities are “aviate, navigate, communicate” — in that order. But smoke soon filled the cockpit and overwhelmed them (a tire fire could do this). The pilots passed out or died.
Smoke filled the cabin and overwhelmed and distracted the passengers and cabin crew... or the cockpit door was locked and/or the cockpit was filled with smoke, so no one could enter the cockpit to try to figure out where the plane was, how the pilots were, or how the plane might be successfully landed. (This would be a complicated task, even if one knew the pilots were unconscious and had access to the cockpit, especially if most of the plane’s electrical systems were switched off or damaged)
With no one awake to instruct the auto-pilot to land, the plane kept flying on its last programmed course... right over Pulau Langkawi and out over the Indian Ocean. The engine-update system kept “pinging” the satellite. Eventually, 6 or 7 hours after the incident, the plane ran out of fuel and crashed.
I think that’s the lamest scenario I’ve read yet. It assumes that two pilots could not utter a simple phase: Ground control, smoke in the cockpit. Pilots can speak and do other tasks simultaneously.
The problem with this theory is that it doesn't appear to be supported by data from the satellite receiving the engine diagnostics.
Excerpt:
And it’s one of the most plausible yet:
__________
In this scenario, there is plenty of time to make a MAYDAY radio call stating the problem and their intentions. Since this wasn’t done, I don’t think it is too plausible.
If on auto-pilot with an incapacitated crew. . .why was it flown to 44,000 ft?
Last I heard its possible to stay a thousand feet back and actually several thousand feet lower and any radr in that area would see just one, would not work in CONUS and heavily populated or military areas. It would work there.
I tell yo what I had a pair of F15’s just taking off in Anchorage (F somethings)as I was flying a Cessna 150 over Point McKenzie, I was in the wrong place and corridor and I never heard them until they went by me.
If a pilot did think something was there what to do? A big circle?
...smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff. The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: Turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land...
Wouldn’t you think the pilots would have signaled a distress call. Come on.
It may be the most plausible yet... However does it handle the non transmissions from the ELT?
ELTs are self powered and contained units, one forward and one aft.
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