I have never posted to your weekly post. It is a great post. I am an Aerospace Engineer and Pilot with 50 years of experience. I have been intriqued by the MAL 777 mystery. Using my background in both aircraft and satellites and engineering experience, I am posting the following thoughts.
Just the Facts, Please
I am astounded at the MSM ignorance about the search for the 777. Based on my 50 years of experience in the aerospace engineering field, let me give you the actual facts that have not been presented anywhere else. GET READY!
First there are 2 data systems on the Boeing 777 that send data, via the Iridium satellite system, to Boeing servers. This is very important. There are 2 separate systems. Both systems use the Iridium satellites to get to the Boeing servers. One system is called the ACARS. The second system is called the AHM or Airplane Health Management System. The difference between these two systems is crucial in our understanding about what happened to the 777. I will explain why this is important and what it means about the status of the 777.
First, though, you need to know about the data link from the 777 to Boeing servers. The data link is based on the Iridium satellite system. Anyone who uses satellite phones from remote locations would be familiar with the system. 60+ low earth satellites, at least one will always be visible from any location on the globe. The important thing to know about this low earth orbit system is that when someone on the ground or in the air pings or links to one of these satellites, your location on the surface of the earth is immediately known by the Iridium controllers/system to be somewhere within the field of view of that satellite at the time the ping was recorded. Since the field of view of the user is “horizon to horizon” that would be plus or minus 30 miles. Pretty good accuracy.
Now, about the two data systems. First, the ACARS. The system has been around since the 70s. It transmits engine data to Boeing/Rolls Royce servers through the Iridium satellite link. But here is the kicker. IT TRANSMITS ENGINE DATA REPORTS AT PRE-SPECIFIED EVENTS, NOT ON TIME. It will send a report at gear up, throttle back meaning cruise achieved (1:07am), and gear down. So what does that mean? The last ACARS data report was sent at 1:07, cruise achieved at 35,000 ft, as announced by the MSM. At least they got that right. The ACARS next scheduled data report should have been at gear down, NOT every hour. The ACARS was NOT disabled by anyone onboard. The gear never came down to trigger the last report. The ACARS WAS NOT DISABLED. THE GEAR NEVER CAME DOWN. So the plane came down on land or in the water without the gear down.
OK. Make sure you understand what you just read before you go any further. Do a google search on Boeing, ACARS, operation and look at technical discussions, airlines that use ACARS, etc. Do not look at news reports. They are all wrong, including FOX news reports.
Moving forward, just as important to understanding this mystery is the Airplane Health Management system. The AHM. The AHM is a Boeing product built into all Boeing aircraft since the 90s. It is built into every aircraft that Boeing builds. Every airline that buys a Boeing aircraft gets the hardware built into their airplane whether they “subscribe” to the AHM subscription service or not. The “AHM subscription service” provides real time data on the 777 flight systems to Boeing and the subscribing airline. If the airline chooses not to subscribe, they do not get the real time date, including GPS data. The mainstream got that right. MAL did not subscribe to this service. BUT, the hardware for the AHM was still in the airplane. NOW, HERE IS THE SECOND KICKER. The AHM will still ping the Boeing servers once an hour for the life of the 777. That is why the LSM, whoops, MSM is claiming that 5 or 6 pings were received from the aircraft during the flight. The Iridium folks and Boeing received and recorded the pings.
So what do the pings, via the Iridium satellites, tell us? The field of view of an Iridium satellite is about 60 miles on the surface of the earth. That is horizon to horizon. Image a 60 mile circle on the surface of the earth fixed to each satellite. As the 777 is flying, it is continually flying through these moving circles, each representing the field of view of an Iridium satellite. Every-time the AHM pings, the Iridium folks should be able to reconstruct where the receiving satellite was and likewise where the 60 mile circle was on the surface of the earth. With 5 or 6 pings, I would have a very accurate ground track of the 777.
Is anyone doing this? Hello? I have listened to countless expert 777 talking heads, pilots, scientists, NSTB folks, and etc. No one has mentioned the AHM. Everyone is confusing the ACARS with the AHM. No one has explained how the pings can be used to track the 777. No one has mentioned Iridium. Not one of these experts has taken the time to do google searches on ahm, acars, iridium, etc. Please do a google search on these terms. Do not look at any news media hits. They are all wrong. Read the google hits about these systems from Boeing, Wikipedia, technical papers, Cathy Air, airliners.net, etc.
Now, one more item I just saw on TV. There are now apparently TWO ground tracks they are searching. Why TWO? Because the pings must have been accidently picked up by a geo comm sat. It was able to compute the range to the aircraft from the geo comm sat position at 22,000 miles each time a ping was sent. If you imagine a sphere around the geo comm sat, with a radius equal to the range to the aircraft, the sphere would intersect the earth in two places for each ping; therefore, the two ground tracks. They need a second satellite to triangulate. Now, the next question to ask is: why isn’t anyone analyzing the Iridium data to obtain the accurate ground track? Why haven’t any talking heads or experts mentioned this? No one on your show has discussed any of this.
In summary, here is my theory of what happened. It is the KISS (keep it simple stupid) theory:
1. The ACARS sent engine data reports at gear up and cruise throttle back (1:07 per MSM reports). No further data reports were sent by the ACARS because the gear never came down.
2. After hand-off to Viet Nam ATC, one of the crew took over with a goal of committing suicide. He was a coward and could not nose dive. Easier to just fly southwest into the Indian Ocean until you reach the point of no return, then it is out of your hands.
3. The only thing done to the aircraft by this pilot was to turn off the transponders. He did nothing else to the aircraft.
4. As the 777 flew on, it sent a ping via the AHM once per hour. The pings were recorded by the Iridium System and Boeing.
5. It finally ran out of fuel and ditched without the gear being lowered. Since the gear was not lowered we never got the final ACARS data report.
6. End of story.
Thank you for this. I am in the middle of making chipped beef gravy. I shall read with studied thought within the hour.
That sounds very likely. The media is keeping quiet as possible one of the pilots was a radical Mooselimb. You know most of them are peaceful?
Great information. Thanks.
Enjoyed your input the other day on the following thread;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3133194/posts
The facts along with those of us on FR with experience in this area outshine the so called talking heads.
Thanks, Robert!
I am VERY familiar with the Iridium satellite system!
In 1994 while in Germany in my back yard one night I saw, out of empty black space, a huge bright moving light appear, and slowly fade out of view. It scared the bejeebus out of me; I was convinced I saw a UFO. It was very bright, at least a -8 magnitude.
After I moved to Alabama, in about 2001, I saw almost the exact same thing one night. As I now had Internet access, I was able to search it, and that’s when I learned about the Iridium flares. I found a website called Heavens-Above.com, which has a program that can track Iridium flares and you can then go out and look in the sky at the coordinates and see one appear right before your own eyes, because, as you say, there’s always one above somewhere!
I did so and it was EXACTLY what I saw in 1994 and 2001. I have seen countless ones since, and even the space shuttle, the International Space Station and countless other satellites as Heavens-Above can track those for your location as well.
Hi Robert,
Thanks for the info!
I have been messing with the LEO and MEO satellite industry since the late 1980’s and need to correct one of your assumptions. The coverage area for an Iridium beam is about 250 miles in diameter, not 60 miles.
Here is a quote from one of their resellers:
“Iridium’s constellation consists of 66 cross-linked operational satellites, plus seven in-orbit spares.
The satellites operate in near-circular low-Earth orbits (LEO) about 780 km (483 miles) above the Earth’s surface. There are 11 satellites in each of six orbital planes and their orbits “intersect” roughly over the north and south poles. The low-flying satellites travel at approximately 17,000 miles per hour, completing an orbit of the Earth in about 100 minutes. It is a function of latitude/longitude and beam coverage, but it typically takes about eight minutes for a satellite to cross the sky from horizon to horizon.
Each satellite can project 48 spot beams on the Earth’s surface. The size of each spot beam is approximately 250 miles in diameter and the satellite’s full 48-beam footprint is approximately 2,800 miles in diameter. All spot beams and satellite footprints overlap.
The large number of fast-moving satellites with multiple overlapping spot beams minimizes missed connections and dropped calls, since more than one satellite is usually visible from any place on Earth. The LEO satellite constellation also makes it possible for changing and multiple view angles to the satellite so that line of sight issues will be temporary as long as you have a view of the sky.”
There is a company in the Washington area that has the capability of finding any earth transmission to space called Interferometrics.
This company located Captain Midnight within a few miles using their technology.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Midnight_%28HBO%29
In light of this one would have to go with the southern arc with a ditching in the waters off the northeastern coast of Australia rather as opposed to the northern arc where they would likely drop the landing gear to put it down on some out of the way landing strip.
BTW on Fox this morning an aviation expert said the same thing -- he believes it is along the southern arc ditched in the deep waters there off the Australian coast.
My one question about that would be this:
Wouldn't it have to fly through Indonesian airspace and over Indonesia itself to get there and wouldn't Indonesian radar have picked it up and done something???
Of course Indonesia is not talking -- atleast to us.
I understand most of what you wrote. I completely understand the “event” pings under ACRS and the fact that a ping was never sent when the gear dropped down because, per your theory, the gear never dropped down.
I kind of understand the AHM thing, the subscription service, the fact that never mind if the airline has the subscription service, the pings still go to Boeing.
Are you asking why Boeing does not volunteer this info? Or did Boeing volunteer and at this point my Blogging mind is overwhelmed by the engineering part of it?
Still and so, what a great post....great explanation....and I believe your theory is the one that makes the most sense.
5. It finally ran out of fuel and ditched without the gear being lowered. Since the gear was not lowered we never got the final ACARS data report.
100% layman here. Can the ACARS be turned off? Maybe that's why the gear down signal was never received?
Thanks for post Robert. Great explanation. Also very plausible. Facts are an afterthought with MSM.