Posted on 01/30/2014 10:51:20 AM PST by abb
Here’s a fresh piece of trouble for Mary Landrieu…
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu runs slightly behind Republican challenger Bill Cassidy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Louisiana.
A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters finds Cassidy, a U.S. congressman, with 44% support to Landrieu’s 40%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The poll was done on Tuesday and Wednesday and the sample was 500 people.
Cassidy being up 44-40 on Landrieu really isn’t all that surprising – or at least Landrieu being at 40 isn’t all that surprising. She’s had trouble getting much above 40 in all but the most obviously slanted Democrat polls over the past six months and there isn’t a lot going on that would favor improvement in those numbers. So a slide from the 42-43-44 percent she was showing in the fall to 40 now is very foreseeable.
That Cassidy would be at 44 shows he may be picking up steam.
Rasmussen didn’t detect much support for Rob Maness or Paul Hollis, and the guess here is Maness would poll better than some portion of five percent if the election was today. But that said, it’s not a great survey for Maness – and Hollis’ media blitz following his announcement for the race doesn’t appear to have been effective.
Be that as it may, it’s hard to imagine Maness’ or Hollis’ voters would be Mary voters in a runoff; you can add that five percent to Cassidy’s total (or at least four of that five percent, if you want to hedge a little). That would put Cassidy at 48 or 49 percent in a runoff without even getting to the undecided vote – and if Mary is at 40 percent after 17 years in office, what would make anyone think she could get 85-90 percent of the undecideds she would need to win?
Short answer: that’s not going to happen.
Even shorter answer: she’s cooked if these numbers are even remotely accurate. Something sizable will have to happen for her to change the dynamic.
Landrieu is going to need to find a poll which has drastically different numbers than these, and soon – because if she doesn’t, it’s possible that the national Democrat money might start going someplace else and she might find herself at parity or even disadvantage to Cassidy before it’s done.
Which leaves us with some parting advice for Cassidy: do NOT sign on to the House GOP’s immigration plan, whatever it is. Leave that hot potato in the oven. All it can do is hurt your chances to become tainted with that when if you wait a year you can be part of something that might actually be good policy when Republicans hold both houses of Congress.
I sure hope Cassidy is a staunch 100% conservatives, otherwise he’s lost the Freeper vote. /s
Hey..here’s a thought..the Dems can take the $$ they’d have sent Mary and instead send it to Wendy in Texas..
Can anybody help me here?
Not Good Enough.
The GOP CAN’T win close elections. The New Orleans gangsters, like the Chicago or Newark Gangsters will manufacture as many DemocRat votes as they need to win in a close elections
Mrs. abb & I live and vote in Louisiana, and we both will be voting for him.
She has gotten in trouble in the past over abortion.
And I am tired of her.
Obamacare is cooking Landrieu's goose as well...
Obumma will throw her a bone with the flood insurance extension and she will look like a hero. Makes me sick.
Wendy in Texas.
She’s got the baby killers over a the Girl Scout cookie pushers behind her
You’re right, Dems can easily manufacture sufficient votes to cover a mere 4% deficit. They won’t even break a sweat doing this. You need at least a 6 or 7 point advantage to be anywhere near safe.
They bought and voted out her first election and have been buying it since then. Her family name served her well enough when she was a presentable blonde. However, her fondness for pork chops and fried chicken (and the resulting topographical changes resulting therefrom) have not stood her in good stead.
Here’s hoping she’s relegated to the pile of forgotten, hagged out Louisiana politicians forever.
I’m with Ronald Reagan.
I’ll take 80%.
Headline day after election:
“Democrat operative finds box of ballots in car trunk, votes clinch victory for Landrieu.”
I agree, but so many conservatives here are in the 100% or nothing boat. They either want everything fixed NOW or they're not voting. Obama is the result of such thinking.
I’ve only voted for one “perfect candidate” in my lifetime, since I first began voting in 1971. In 1982, I ran for a city council seat and pulled the lever for myself.
Every other election, I had to vote for the lesser of two evils.
He’s not. Was rejected out of hand by SCF. We can do better than that in Louisiana, so I back Maness, but he is going to have to blitz it to be in with a shot.
If another poll confirms she’s mired at 40, I’m going to move Louisiana where I moved Arkansas... into the sure pickup column. Buh bye Mary!
He’s good enough for a general election but we could do better in the primary.
Hollis, I think, is going fishing for a future run. When Vitter leaves in 2015 to be governor, we’re going to have a seat to fill and I think he wants to get his name out as a hopeful so he has a shot then.
The ideal guy would be Senate Conservative Fund backed candidate Rob Maness.
If Cassidy wins the primary, I think most conservatives will vote for him without feeling like they’re compromising though he isn’t as courageous as we want.
IMHO, Cassidy is a well concealed RINO. If he were the only opponent to ML, I would hold my nose while casting my vote for him. My choice is Manness, the teal party choice at this time and also of Michael Berry, who hates Landrieu.
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