The End of Erdogan? (Turkey)

Foreign Policy ^ | DECEMBER 20, 2013 | John Hannah

[Texas Fossil]

There's a very big story developing in Turkey that all foreign policy mavens should be watching closely. Exactly how big remains to be seen, but the stakes are huge. At issue: Will the decade-long domination of Turkish politics by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) continue? Or is the Erdogan era about to come crashing down, fatally weakened by scandal, infighting, and authoritarian overreach?

Early Tuesday morning, police in Istanbul and Ankara carried out a wave of stunning arrests that included powerful businessmen, the sons of three cabinet ministers, and the head of an important state-owned financial institution, Halkbank. The operation flowed from a series of corruption-related investigations that have apparently been underway for a year or more. All the key targets swept up in the raids are closely linked to Erdogan's government.

[Texas Fossil]

International High Finance.

Game of cat and mouse.

[AdmSmith]

welcome to the world of conundrums.

[Texas Fossil]

Yep, can of worms. With many facets.

[AdmSmith]

It is difficult to understand what is going on in Turkey, but my general hypothesis is that Islam and democracy do not mix. Turkey deserves a better government, but the road to that is not clear to me. What is the ultimate goal of the Hizmet? What will happen when AKP will split?

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-gulenist-subversion-of-turkey-by-dani-rodrik

http://balyozdavasivegercekler.com/2012/11/05/fethullah-gulen-the-jews-and-hypocrisy/

Spengler on Turkey
http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2013/04/23/david-spengler-goldman-turkeys-ticking-debt-time-bomb/

http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2012/01/09/david-spengler-goldman-recall-notice-for-the-turkish-model/

[Texas Fossil]

Future of Turkey is unclear.

But it is clear that the connection of the MB & al Qaeda & Obozo’s support are all involved in Libya & Benghazi, Egypt, Turkey and Iran. If this is exposed properly, it is the smoking gun, both in the US and in those countries involved.

I think it is coming.

Now where will the trail lead back to? What group is the actual puppet master that put Obozo in power? This is not some little group. It is a Global Conspiracy. (use that label with caution)

[Texas Fossil]

The Chaos in Turkey, Libya and Egypt is scripted by none other than Obozo and his puppetmasters.

It is not an accident, they are creating the chaos to allow them to grab power.

This will not end well.

[Texas Fossil]

hypothesis is that Islam and democracy do not mix

Well they don't. Islam is a fusion of church (if you call it that) & state. The nature of that religion (term used loosely) is NOT Compatible with Democracy. But I have been told by young Muslims that it is compatible with Communism. (I think that is only a fleeting compatibility)

[AdmSmith]

Yes, at present they do not mix, the question is if they ever will mix, and my hypothesis is that it is not the case.

No, Islam and Communism are competing ideologies for how a country should be run, so they are not compatible.

[Texas Fossil]

I have been told by “young” “chip on shoulder” Muslims that they are, but in reality I agree with you that they are not.

Both think they are entitled to rule the world. Nothing can ever overcome that conflict.

[AdmSmith]

Mr. Gulen hinted that his movement—known internally as Hizmet, which means service, and externally as Cemaat, which means congregation—would like to see a challenge to Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party, or AKP.

He didn't rule out members of his flock shifting their support to the opposition Republican People's Party—Mr. Erdogan’s secularist nemesis, which was established by modern Turkey's founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Delegations from the two sides met in New York in early December, but no announcements resulted.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304027204579332670740491570

and
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dani-rodrik-says-that-turkey-s-prime-minister-has-only-himself-to-blame-for-the-country-s-current-political-turmoil

[AdmSmith]

Islamic scholar Gülen says Turkey's graft scandal can't be covered up
http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action;jsessionid=E6A57D194B65555B66BDD81491B8D460?newsId=337707&columnistId=0

The http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_presidential_election,_2014 later this year (Summer?) will be interesting.

The campaign will reveal a lot of strange issues.

[a_Turk]

Fethulah Gulen = Ayatullah Humeini. His US Greencard sponsor? Graham Fuller (CIA).

“Gulen was a staunch enemy of secularism in Turkey. He pushed for an authoritarian Islamic state. In fact, a Wikileaks wire reveals how Istanbul Chief Rabbi Ishak Haleva tried to warn USA of this man’s activities, saying he is a “radical Islamist” whose moderate message cloaks a more sinister and radical agenda.”

http://www.progressivepress.net/the-tale-of-uncle-tsarnaev-cia-chief-graham-fuller-and-a-turkish-islamist-who-lives-in-usa/

[AdmSmith]

My impression is that AKP is at work turning a half-secularist society and a secular state into an entirely Islamic one.

This http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/09/magazine/whose-turkey-is-it.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

is a good article, but it is lacking info about the economic situation and somewhat too positive on Erdogan. It does not give any enlightenment's on Gulen, and I still can not decide what to think of him.

Below are two important comments from the article:

The radicalization of Turkey, its departure from Ataturk's reforms, has been going on for eleven years. The jailing of journalists, changes in school curricula, women back in burka even in Istanbul. It's been a slow process — deliberately slow — and very sure. Erdogan didn't want to attract attention, and because the United States and Europe wanted to think well of him, they let small things slide.

Ergogan’s militant brand of Islam. isn't news. It's just that news organizations chose not to notice.

and:
For the country to move forward, Erdogan must go. He has outlived his usefulness. Erdogan and many AKP members have demostrated their close allegiance to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Jihadis in Syria. Dont’ forget that Erdogan provide free access to Syira for Jihadi, as well as giving them Medical care and training facilties.

Also don't forget that during the war with Iraq Erdogan refused to allow the US to open a 2nd Front going through Turkey - yet he claimed he needed Patriot batteries to protect him for Assad. He is truly a man that no country can trust as an ally.

[SunkenCiv]

If Erdogan gets voted out, there *may* be a nice orderly transition, but it’s more likely that within a year or two we’ll look back on this as the good old days.

[AdmSmith]

As this is a Muslim country perhaps it has to be governed by the Military.

[AdmSmith]

International credit rating agency Standard & Poor (S&P) revised Turkey’s credit outlook from stable to negative on Friday, while keeping its credit note as BB+.
A statement from S&P on Friday listed two reasons for Turkey’s credit outlook revision.
“First, we believe that Turkey’s fiscal and monetary policies have exposed the country to a potential hard landing as external conditions tighten. In particular, Turkey’s external and fiscal positions could suffer beyond our base-line forecasts published on Nov. 22, 2013, should GDP performance worsen beyond our current expectations,” the statement said.
“Second, Turkey appears to have suffered an unanticipated erosion of institutional checks and balances and governance standards. For example, we believe that any constraints on the independence and transparency of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) pose a risk to an economy that has traditionally relied on significant external financing needs.”

http://www.worldbulletin.net/turkey/128452/sp-revises-turkeys-credit-outlook-to-negative

[codder too]

Gulen chain of U S Charter schools, largest in our nation, has been sending our tax dollars to his cause for years, as he remains holed up in Pennsylvania Pocono mountains.

How much power does he retain and what does he control. Erdogan tried to shut down his schools in Turkey. Gulen says he will work deep in the system until there is enough power to overthrow. Bears watching..

[AdmSmith]

The climate in Turkey is again far from normal in the run-up to the March 30 local elections.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/02/turkey-gulenists-power-struggle-opposition-elections.html

[AdmSmith]

In the voice recording, published on YouTube late on Monday, Erdogan seems to be warning his son Bilal about cash money stashed in several houses. It was not possible to decipher from conversations how much money is involved and in how many houses this amount of money is stocked, but an introductory note at the beginning of the video says the plan involves at least $1 billion cash stashed in five houses.

The conversation allegedly took place on Dec. 17, when prosecutors ordered police to raid dozens of addresses to collect evidence. Dozens of suspects were arrested, including an Iranian businessman Reza Zarrab and chief of state bank Halkbank, Süleyman Aslan. Some of the suspects were later released.

At the beginning of the phone conversation, the prime minister briefs his son Bilal about the raid and asks him to “zero” the amount stashed at houses of several people.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-340365-turkish-main-opposition-convenes-over-erdogans-voice-recording.html

the recording http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cvf4aeRLu0E

more info:
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/abdullah-bozkurt_340314_money-trail-in-corruption-case.html

It will be difficult for Erdogan to handle this

[AdmSmith]

English translation http://erdogansdollars.blogspot.se/2014/02/how-erdogan-pm-of-turkey-asked-his-son.html