For supposedly smart people, these so-called scientist let their agenda get in their way too much of the time.
The Sun seems to be the main factor here, and seems to be always left out of the discussion.
They ‘blew’the forecasts because...they can’t predict the future! They can’t reliably predict storms when they DO exist, and they admit that they are ‘unpredictable’! When did this stupidity start? These current ‘meterologists’ are more dependent on their computers and gadgets than science. NO one can tell you what the weather will be before it exists and they look like fools playing ‘Karnak’( a-la Johnny Carson). What good would it do if they COULD see the future hurricane season correctly? What could you do about September weather in December/January? Seriously! It’s all about air-time and ego-and sensationalizing weather while increasing their relevancy.
Local weathermen here in New Orleans are really pathetic. They are more comedians and entertainers who are playing with peoples lives and property by crying wolf. No one takes them seriously-and that could be fatal when it comes to a Katrina.
Don’t try to predict number of storms, that simple. Each hurricane season will be quiet-busy on it’s own. This season had weaker hurricanes than other seasons did. The systems just did not have the right conditions to get really strong.
The presumptive premise is wrong.
The presumption is that adequate knowledge exists to accurately forecast events as random as hurricanes.
There is no such knowledge at all, much less enough to make an accurate prediction.
The man had to write something but chose a poor subject
In other words, they just guessed.
I used to pay 10 bucks a year for the weather underground. I stopped when Masters sent a response to an e-mail to me where I challenged his website's unrelenting belief in AGW. He basically told me that I was all wrong to NOT believe in Globull warming.
Too bad, because I really like the site and the information available.
Three words: Our Models Suck.
Aha! I knew if I looked long enough I’d find the article I was looking for!
Why do they predict horrible hurricane seasons? So no one will remember when they’re wrong later.
.......
Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season
Reuters ^
Posted on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 1:29:17 PM by Sub-Driver
Top U.S. storm team sees above average Atlantic hurricane season Photo 12:20pm EDT
By Kevin Gray
MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above average” with 18 tropical storms, nine of which will intensify into hurricanes, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted on Wednesday.
Four of the hurricanes will be major with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, the leading U.S. storm research team said.
An average season brings about 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to CSU. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
The prediction for a busier 2013 season was based on two factors, the researchers said. Hurricanes thrive on warm water and the Atlantic Ocean has warmed in recent months.
There is also little expectation of an El Nino effect this summer and fall.
El Nino is a warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years and has far-ranging effects around the globe. The weather phenomenon creates wind shear that makes it harder for storms to develop into hurricanes in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin.
The researchers said there was a 72 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast this year, compared with a historical average of 52 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
From the article: “’A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons,’ said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster. ‘As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns.’”
Translation: We failed in our predictions because, uh, there were some, uh, conditions that, uh, acted to offset.. never mind, we just really didn’t know what we were doing. But you can trust us next time, because we’re the experts and we’re experts because we know what we are doing.
Whaa?
Ummmmmm.... if somebody looks, they have blown the last 5 or 6 hurricane forecasts not just one.
And these days, they name every little rainstorm that would have been ignored in the past.
According to ManBearPig, climate change causes extreme weather, so they forecasted extreme weather because they are required to support ManBearPig.
If they keep guessing sooner or later they will get it right and accept all the credit for it.
Honest question:
Have they EVER predicted a “below average” season?
If not, then it’s clearly driven by ideology over science.
They aren’t scientists, they are politicists.
They are liars, and they should no longer be employed by us, because we have no need for them.
Weather forecasters - - one profession you can be wrong 100% of the time and still earn 100% of your salary.