This is where you can exchange some investment opinions and advice Posted on 09/23/2013 3:55:27 AM PDT by expat_panama
This is the Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Sept.-23-27 edition)----
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
This is where you can exchange some investment opinions and advice
If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite economic blogs and precious metals blogs and sites
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe
Sites that posters have recommended ------
For futures, stocks up metals down, overall flat.
Food stamps again a vivid symbol in poverty debate By CONNIE CASS and MARY CLARE JALONICK - AP - Sat Sep 21, 3:13AM CDT WASHINGTON (AP) — Food stamps have figured in Americans' ideas about the poor for decades, from President Lyndon Johnson's vision of a Great Society to President Ronald Reagan's scorn for crooked "welfare queens" and President Bill Clinton's pledge to "end welfare as we know it." (full story)Bangladeshi Garment Workers Set Factories Ablaze in Bid for Higher Wages TIME - 52 minutes ago Garment workers shout slogans during a rally demanding an increase to their minimum wage in Dhaka September 21, 2013. Email · Print; Share.
Domash run a great site as regards Dividend Detective.
huh, you’re right! This place was set up by DenissW and I’m still filling in and learning about it all.
Here's one I missed. Thought of it myself maybe 3 months ago added it to streaming quotes, started watching Walgreen's. It was around 47-48 and lower on bad days. No free cash and am not a good financial analyst.
Today they are trading at 56.45!
Today seems like a good day for profit taking.
Tech indicators say WAG was a good buy 3 weeks ago when it leaped past its previous base high in good volume, but 3 months ago there were no signs and it made a few painful dips. Now it’s a bit over extended and while it may provide a good entry in the future there are plenty of others showing promise now.
mho
I missed all that on WAG. I was thinking pharma, ought to have that, couldn't find one, then why not WAG? I get all my prescriptions there. Stores all over the place. Doesn't mean they are financially stable.
So I watched and we are where you said. A little over priced. I guess I'm waiting for even more pullbacks.
It’s gonna take some time to play out, but we may be setting up for a significant downdraft around the beginning of the year.
Each Friday I usually (but not always) buy a short fund to get me through the weekend in case something happens in the M.E. Friday I bought HDGE and would usually sell right off the bat Monday morning but since it was going up I held it. As long as I am ahead I’ll hold it in case there is a sell-off.
You might be good. The retrace off that drop was weak with low volume. It’s near the day’s low right now on the globex.
Good morning all, after yesterday's sell-off (albeit in lower volume) this morning's futures are flat for stocks and down for metals. Lots of new reports out starting today: this morning's headlines:
Stocks Extend Loses; Apple Cushions Nasdaq
09/23/2013 06:59 PM ET - Stocks retreated more Monday, but the Nasdaq fared better on a relative basis. Among the broader market indexes, the S&P 500 fell for the third straight session, losing 0.5%. But it managed to close above the psychological 1700 level, which stands as a potential support level. Thanks to a 5% jump in shares of Apple (AAPL), the Nasdaq gave up a milder ... More »
Ahead of the Bell: US Consumer Confidence AP - 2 mins ago WASHINGTON (AP) — The private Conference Board reports on U.S. consumer confidence in September. Report released at 10 a.m. EDT Tuesday. (full story)
World stocks flat as US faces budget battle By PAMELA SAMPSON - AP - 1 hr 1 min ago BANGKOK (AP) — Uncertainty about the U.S. Federal Reserve's next step and the potential for a budget showdown in Washington kept stock markets in check Tuesday. (full story)
“we may be setting up for a significant downdraft around the beginning of the year.”
Due to the end of QE? As the currency deflates the markets are the best place imo to maintain value of savings. But the market isn’t that great.
Economic repression.
Add me to this ping list? Thx...
So hard to predict.
We may get another 50% drop in stock prices over a few months (like we did in '08 and '00) or we may be finally leaving our 15-year perch and get back to a few decades of growth like we did in 1980 and 1950. What we know is that this is not now a bear market, not even a correction. At least that's what the signs say --then again these past few years the tech signs haven't worked so well even though they served so well for so long before.
--or more like a complete takeover.
On this related thread we were talking about how the capital and labor markets (AKA "economy") are being taken over. Labor market's been moved to gov't control simply by the fact that since '08 we've gotten over a hundred million working age Americans without jobs and getting record levels of gov't 'assistance'. Capital markets are being overwhelmed; yesterday I dug into total lending levels and found that private borrowing is down a $trillion, and commercial borrowing is down more than a $T. That seems to fly in the face of another fact that total lending/borrowing is up $5T since the crisis.
The problem is (you guessed it) the government --which has gone further into debt by almost $7trillion. The American people simply can not afford this --and that may very well be the solution. I mean, the fall of the Soviet Union comes to mind here...
Simple volume/price action analysis. After the big spike from the Fed announcement on huge volume, it’s all been taken back. Even before that the market was distributing. Volume, momentum, and ease of movement is now to the downside.
After we hit this short term bottom, no doubt there will be an attempt to make a run at the old high. If upside volume and price action don’t perk up, we are very vulnerable to some significant selling. Not a crash, but a 10-20% down move, enough to make some good money.
Being scared of savings loss makes sense and I like it when it forces me to think. When I buy during a pullback it means I'm buying during a sell-off, and that usually finds me putting up with more losses. My take is buying during a run-up is better; the idea being that generally trends exist that can last a while.
Sure, things change. Yesterday I sold that YHOO that I bought back here. Funny thing is that I didn't mean to sell it all, just half. I must have screwed up because I was scared. Anyway I may just turn around and buy it back if it goes up again in volume. Usually I hate admitting I was wrong but hell, business is business...
Second guessing the FED is not for the faint of heart. Yesterday 1010rd turned me on to this query: "How Do You Say ‘Fixed-Rate, Full-Allotment Overnight Reverse Repo Facility’ in English?". First I asked my economic advisors--
--and then I read the article. Several times. Believe it or not it actually makes sense, and the story is that the Fed's tweaking interest rates by underwriting loans. Don't worry, the banks are paying us taxpayers for this insurance, and I'm still going over the details but my head hurts...
I've seen a couple videos that say do not double down on a losing position. Early on it's ok, but after it's run awhile, don't do it. Counterintuitive. I put a stop on it, hate to lose $300 on 100 lousy shares. I wonder what's wrong with that company. LLY. Should have been a good one.
I'm so sleepy lately, if I'd get up and get opening prices, I could have played XONE again but even that may have levelled off before it hits bottom. I don't want to play anything until I have a clean slate and all cash, no holdovers, fresh start.
I don't feel sympitaco with this market. Before, even though a novice, I did and made more good moves than bad.
I have to learn a few more indicators. Catching a stop on the upswing (I think that's a confirmation signal for investors who know how to combine signals properly), that's a gamble, too, but if you think it's better than catching the bottom, I'll look into it.
A lot of cashing in with me too these last few days but instead of selling all of some I sold some of all and kept variety. Of course, sell rules don't always allow for selling half each but they did for me this time.
do not double down on a losing position... ..hate to lose $300
That's been a good rule in my experience, and what I tell myself is that when the market price goes down the money is already lost --leaving only the question of whether I want my money in cash, a stronger stock, or to stay in the losing stock I'm holding. In these days of $4.95 commissions we can change stocks like we can change our socks.
LLY. Should have been a good one.
That one has a lot going for it but our burden is not only finding good companies but finding good ones that others are beginning to like too. iirc it's the fundamentals that say if a company is good and it's the technicals that say if others are beginning to buy in.
don't feel sympitaco with this market.
--which could also mean that this is still an unstable untrustworthy market. You may have already seen this graph, with the total net worth of all corporations plotted along with a stock price index. The first thought is that stock prices are the value of the company so the two lines should always be same --but they sometimes are different. Back during the dot.com bust stock prices went down while a lot of new fast growing companies were born. That meant existing stock prices crashed but everyone that went with the new companies got rich. I did well and I thought I was invincible.
In late '08 I couldn't just go for the good new ones like before because there were no good ones, and I ended up with (first time ever) all my money in cash. On that graph you see total net worth did fine with the 02 crash but tanked during an '08 stock price crash that was no worse than the dot.com. This '08 crisis has been very unusual and (imho) it shouldn't continue; over the past half century shown here it's only happened that one time.
I have to learn a few more indicators
--and I have to forget a bunch that don't work. My hope is that we can get rich meeting somewhere 1/2 way.
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