| Solar X-rays: Geomagnetic Field: |
|
Posted on 08/03/2013 10:07:08 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Last week, these same scientists also held a press teleconference during a solar science conference to talk about the maximum (and do some damage control in my opinion).
Of the two press stories I have seen, one focused on the claim by these scientists that we are not headed for a Grand Minimum, a period when the solar cycle disappears and the Sun no longer produces sunspots for decades at a time. This story isn’t very informative or useful. Its conclusions are based purely on the speculations of these particular scientists, whose ability to predict anything has been very poor, while ignoring completely the predictions of other solar scientists, who have stated that they think a Grand Minimum is definitely possible in the next decade.
The other story more correctly focused on the known facts, how this cycle has been very very weak, and how all evidence points to the likelihood that the next maximum will be even weaker. Other than that, we really don’t know what’s going to happen next.
What no one seems to notice is that the actual maximum occurred two years ago, not now in 2013. When that 2011 peak occurred, everyone expected the number of sunspots to continue to rise in the coming years, so no one considered the October 2011 peak to be anything more than a temporary burp on the way to full maximum. Instead, it was the maximum. Afterward, the Sun has been struggling along, producing sunspots but in much lower numbers.
Overall, these facts suggest strongly to me that the scientists predicting a Grand Minimum in the coming years have a better chance of being right. It might not happen, but if I had to make a bet right now I’d give them the better odds.
(Excerpt) Read more at behindtheblack.com ...
Winter is coming.
How does one go about predicting sun spot activity? How far do records go back and how reliable are they?
Time to start stockpiling dragon glass.
Struggling along? What does that mean?
Further, the sun gets no appreciation whatsoever from its customers. Not only do we smear ourselves in oil to avoid its healing rays but we don sunglasses to block it out. As Rodney Dangerfield would say, no respect, I get no respect at all.
I would be pissed off too if I was the sun.
Gee, who would have thought that hydrogen furnace in the sky would have anything to do with temperatures on earth?
Check this out...
They go back a LONG ways (to Galeleo in 1610). Although I’m not sure if things are adjusted to take into account our better telescopes - and better satelites. :)
But the cycle is only 11 years, so LOTS of cycles to look at. Here is some old information with some good charts - but ends in 2000.
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=130
“But dat lucky ol’ sun got nuttin to do but roll around heaven all day.”
“But that lucky old sun got nothing to do but roll around heaven all day.”
Don’t tell Hank Johnson (the Guam is tipping over Senator) about this he may think it’s a good idea to create a sun tax to ease the sun’s struggle.
Have to say, one can imagine the advent of the next ice age in the mythic terms of G of T, sans the White Walkers. Though I suppose polar bears roaming Manhattan (no longer an) island in search of fresh meat would be an adequate substitute for even those elements of the story.
Massive solar flare narrowly misses Earth, EMP disaster barely avoided
The trend for the last three cycles is down.
Theoritically, you can actually quantify the direct affect the solar cycle has on Earth's biospheric temperature. To do that however, requires a little bit more thoughtful analysis and more accurate metrics then apes currently are capable of performing. And the rest of the galaxy is no doubt thankful for that (channeling Douglas Adams there :>)
That story was a lie.
That story was disinformation. An excuse to trot out EMP warning messages. There were no X class flares in the time frame referenced by the fake scare story. We do need to prepare. The threat is real.
For us Amateur Radio folks, this cycle has been a near non event.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
