Posted on 07/23/2013 7:40:54 PM PDT by neverdem
Latest data shows solar activity has been falling steadily since mid-1940s
Illustration mapping the steady decline in sunspot activity over the last two solar cycles with predicted figures for the current cycle 24
The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age.
Three leading solar scientists presented the very latest data about the weakening solar activity at a teleconference yesterday in Boulder, Colorado, organised by the American Astronomical Society. It featured experts from Nasa, the High Altitude Observatory and the National Solar Observatory who described how solar activity, as measured by the formation of sunspots and by massive explosions on the sun’s surface, has been falling steadily since the mid-1940s.
The sun goes through a regular 11-year cycle with a maximum, when sunspot activity is at its peak, followed by a minimum when sunspot numbers are reduced and are smaller and less energetic. We are supposed to be at a peak of activity, at solar maximum.
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Outside the norm
The current situation, however, is outside the norm and the number of sunspots seems in steady decline. The sun was undergoing “bizarre behaviour” said Dr Craig DeForest of the society.
“The sun’s current maximum activity period is very late and very weak, leading to speculation that the sunspot cycle itself could be shutting down or entering a dormant phase,” he said before the teleconference.
Irish solar science specialist Dr Ian Elliott, formerly of the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, quoted from figures released by Nasa on July 1st. It had asked an expert group to predict sunspot activity using models, with an upper limit and a lower limit.
The predictions suggested the monthly average sunspot total should range between 90 and 140, but in fact the present monthly average is only 67, Dr Elliott said. A typical average at maximum during much of the early 20th century was about 200.
“It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years,” said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa. We are currently in solar cycle number 24 which is about half as active as cycle 23, but cycle 25 is likely to be smaller again due to changes in the magnetic flux on the sun’s surface,” he said.
Dr Giuliana de Toma of the High Altitude Observatory acknowledged the clear signs that solar activity was in decline but this did not mean the earth was heading for another “Maunder Minimum”. This was a time between 1645 and 1725 when solar activity was extremely low or nonexistent, a situation which caused a mini ice age.
The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said.
“It all points to perhaps another little ice age,” he said. “It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters.”
And while the researchers in the US said the data showed a decline in activity, they had no way to predict what that might mean for the future.
Ack. The rose bushes in Eden have thorns you say!
Thorns? The WORLD's most beautiful women are Filipinas! I hope to get stuck with one!
Not bizarre, predictable........
It’s all fun and games until the natural disaster strikes.
The current cycle (cycle 24) is similar to the Dalton Minimum cycle you see on your graph in the early 1800’s. Things got a bit cold then too, but not as much as in the Maunder Minimum.
I have not seen very much in the way of serious solar scientists even speculating this early about Maunder Minimum. I have seen quite a few, especially among the Russians and Finns, that we very well may be in for a Dalton Minimum around the years 2040-2050. That is bad enough, as far as temperatures of Earth are concerned. If that comes to pass, there will be a lot of fear about a possible Maunder.
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“So moving to the Philippines could be a good thing.”
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A little global cooling would be welcome here.
It has hit close to 100 most every day this summer.
for 30 years the government and media have been crying “global warming”
now the Sun says ice age. lol . i would love to see the media reporters’ faces in the next few years when the Earth starts to cool significantly!
that government has been funding a hoax, funding global warming research for 30 years shows that government/socialism can never work. nuke government from space it's the only way to be sure
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2pZSvq9bto
It’s Obama’s fault. The oceans are receding, the planet is healing, global warming is stopping. What we’re seeing is an overcorrection by the sun, responding to instructions from Obama.
What editor allowed this snippet of truth into the article?
Thanks for the ping.
I actually have an achievable idea if we face a Maunder Minimum.
Spaceflight up huge, thin mylar sheets that are reflective on one side. When unfurled, reflect a portion of the suns rays onto the Earth. Adjust the input by the same percent the solar radiation decreases.
Never mind that...did you see post #62???
Oh, BTW...we can’t do stuff in space as long as we have so many hungry mouths to feed right here on Gaia. /stupid
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