Posted on 07/12/2013 6:17:38 AM PDT by thackney
The perception of natural gas as a mainstream fuel for vehicles runs the gamut, dependent upon where you live: from the improbable…to the viable…to the everyday reality. So from recent burrito research expeditions, here are ten points to stir up the melding pot of the great natural gas vehicle debate.
1) Here is a breakdown of the total number of natural gas vehicles globally. The key takeaways: there are A LOT of natural gas vehicles already in the world (15 millionish in 2011) and the number is rapidly increasing. However, there are relatively few in North America (aka, the tiny sliver at the bottom of the chart).
2) In a recent IEA report, natural gas use in road transport accounted for 1.4% of global gas demand in 2012. This is projected to rise to 2.5% by 2018, accounting for nearly 10% of total natural gas demand growth.
3) The number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in the world could reach 65 million by 2020, according to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles (IANGV), which indicates an annual growth rate of 19%. Another study by Navigant Consulting puts this number at a much more modest (but still impressive) 35 million.
4) China is leading the charge in both total natural gas demand growth (accounting for 30% of global growth over the next five years) and natural gas demand growth for transportation, with consumption from the sector set to triple by 2018.
5) China already has 1.5 million natural gas vehicles on the road, and if its ambitious targets are achieved, it will be substituting 840,000 barrels of oil by 2030. That said, for this to occur it would need to see a tenfold increase in consumption from the vehicle sector.
6) The current leaders in terms of natural gas vehicles are Iran (2.86 million), Pakistan (2.85 million), Argentina (1.9 million), and Brazil (1.7 million). These four account for 60% of the total global count.
7) The number of natural gas vehicles in the US is now estimated at 250,000. According to the EIA, April’s natural gas vehicle fuel consumption was 2.7 Bcf for the entire month. This equates to 0.1% of total US consumption.
8) The US is seeing the most growth coming through from transit vehicles, with one in five now running on natural gas (although according to Twitter it is now one in three). There has been a flurry of companies such as Frito-Lay and Proctor & Gamble announcing recently that they are converting parts of their fleets to run on natural gas.
9) But just as studies on LNG exports have indicated that natural gas prices will be relatively unaffected, natural gas prices are projected to see a limited impact by rising demand from the transportation sector. All the while, by 2035 we should still see 99% of US vehicles powered by fossil fuels.
10) Finally, given the optimistic numbers presented above (well, I’m more bullish on NGVs than when I started this piece!), it seems prudent to highlight the harshest reality faced, at least by the US: that of infrastructure. According to the IEA, it can cost from $400,000 to $1.7 million to build a compressed-natural-gas filling station, and up to $4 million for a liquefied-natural-gas station. By comparison, a gasoline station costs from $50,000 to $150,000.
‘Til next time…thanks for playing!
We sure are at the blunt end of this spear.
I wonder how one would play this from an investment point of view? Which companies stand to benefit most?
I wrote a paper on this 15 years ago. At that time buses in Philly were already running on it. It makes so much sense.
My dog is a natural gas vehicle. Especially when I give him chicken.
Not long ago, I took my van to be washed at the Flying J truckstop in Wytheville Virginia. You must thread your way through all the big rigs and a scale to get to the back of the lot and the truck wash.
I was astounded to find the path taken before was blocked. There was a brand new covered pump area. It is the Pilot Flying J/ T Boone Pickens big rig natural gas filling station. It was blocked off and not operational but appeared ready to go.
The success f failure of this experiment will be telling for the future.
I saw it for my self in western Canada around 1990 or so. They had the vehicles and they had the LNG in gas stations. Made a big impression on me as well.
Their real goal is to wipe out five or six billion human beings, by whatever means necessary.
WPRT
Fleet service type vehicles, such as UPS, City Buses, Cement & Garbage Trucks, etc are the easiest to make this conversion.
Those vehicles typically come back to a single garage/yard where a fueling station can be built. A lot of this has already happened.
http://www.cngnow.com/news/default.aspx
These guys say prefer CMI to WPRT and give their reasons. Thanks for pointing me that way.
I’ve looked into NG for vehicles a little.
I live in the city and work not too far outside it.
There is one natural gas filling station in the area, and by coincidence, it’s not too far from my house at the the local gas utility’s facility.
But there are two problems...
1) The gas filling station is not open to the public
2) The EPA has made it practically impossible to convert an existing vehicle to natural gas (or propane, for that matter) legally. Conversions have to be “certified” and tested, meaning they are very expensive and only available for a limited number of vehicles.
In the current environment, it’s only practical for fleet usage.
The big buck$ have already been made ...
WPRT has been a range bound trade for a couple years now..
“According to the IEA, it can cost from $400,000 to $1.7 million to build a compressed-natural-gas filling station, and up to $4 million for a liquefied-natural-gas station. By comparison, a gasoline station costs from $50,000 to $150,000. “
I’m willing to bet that the $400,000 to $1.7M has a lot to do with compliance. We can develop technology in this country, but we cannot implement it. Also, I’m not sure how you could get a gas station built for $50,000. You might buy one for that in a rather depressed real estate market, but you would never build one for that. If I bought a gas station for $50K, I wonder how much would it cost to convert it? This is the wave of the future, and our policy makers are utterly blind to it.
Propane would not be much dollar savings.
Propane contains 92,500 BTUs per gallon.
Gasoline contains 125,000 BTUs per gallon.
So Propane at $2.59 per gallon delivers energy at the same price as gasoline at $3.50 per gallon.
Is anyone beginning to get the feeling that the “Big Players” are starting the process to convince everyone to go Nat. Gas with the real purpose of rising prices and manipulating the market? I could see Obama pushing natural gas simply to kill off the oil industry, for example.
I like natural gas, and we have tons of it.
But I no longer trust anything on its face value.
(*Has anyone noticed that in every study [health, lifespan, &c] we come in basically last, yet we control the world and everyone wants to be here? LOL)
Huh? Were you replying to me?
Maybe to chrisser @ #13?
No.
Yep, swing and a miss...
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