SF crash landing: Latest developments

CNN ^ | 7-6-13 | CNN Staff

[AlexW]

“What about an airspeed indicator — isn’t that an instrument?”
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Yes, but I do not think it would be an issue in this situation. It would be more critical in IFR conditions. That plane most likely has two airspeed indicators, as well as stall alarms.
I am sure there are some commercial airline pilots on FR that
would be far more qualified to comment on this crash.
I just do not know why he apparently touched down at the very end of the runway in VFR conditions.

[Raven6]

"I just do not know why he apparently touched down at the very end of the runway in VFR conditions." - Alex w.

Two factors probably caused it: 1) It is very hard to visually judge distance to the water when flying over it... Depth perception is affected,; 2) According to what I was told, a NOTAM (notice to airmen) had been issued advising that the glide slope indicator on runway 28L was down. These factors would put the pilot at extreme disadvantage when trying to land at SFO. It would be even worse in a declared emergency when the pilot has other extreme factors with which to deal...

[AlexW]

“the glide slope indicator on runway 28L was down”
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That certainly did not help his situation, but unless that runway is critically short, he should have been well past the threshold at touchdown. I guess in a plane that size, however, the runway that the pilot sees is quite far from where the wheels are.
Anyway, it is all over but the shouting, and we can speculate all day long. We just need to wait till the official ruling.
I was not aware of a declared emergency.

[txhurl]

But how could that ... unless the tail cracked off before landing and struck the rocks, messing up anotherwise OK landing.

[Yosemitest]

After 30 years of Air Traffic Control experience, most as Tower Watch Supervisor in the USAF, this was a Pilot Error Crash.
The pilot came in too steep, with too much airspeed to bleed off, so he put it into a stall position to get rid of the airspeed.
But he stalled it out and got lucky that he belly landed it into the underrun, and the closed portion of the runway, before the landing threshold and leaving a portion of the tail in the bay.

Check out the last 5 minutes of this link at the bottom of the page

EDT Latitude Longitude Course Direction KTS MPH feet Rate Location/Type


02:23PM 37.5192 -122.1390 298° West 221 254 4,300 -240 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5266 -122.1570 297° West 212 244 4,200 -720 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5351 -122.1760 299° West 208 239 3,900 -960 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5414 -122.1910 298° West 204 235 3,700 -1,080 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5481 -122.2070 298° West 203 234 3,400 -1,200 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5548 -122.2230 298° West 195 224 3,100 -1,140 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5614 -122.2390 297° West 190 219 2,800 -1,500 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5669 -122.2520 298° West 187 215 2,400 -1,320 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5730 -122.2660 299° West 187 215 2,200 -1,080 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5785 -122.2790 298° West 186 214 1,900 -1,020 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5847 -122.2940 298° West 178 205 1,700 -1,020 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5900 -122.3070 297° West 169 194 1,400 -1,380 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.5988 -122.3270 299° West 145 167 800 -1,380 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6016 -122.3340 297° West 141 162 600 -1,320 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6045 -122.3410 298° West 134 154 400 -900 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6073 -122.3480 297° West 123 142 300 -840 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6103 -122.3550 298° West 109 125 100 -120 FlightAware
02:28PM 37.6170 -122.3740 294° West 85 98 200 120 FlightAware

[AlexW]

“The pilot came in too steep, with too much airspeed to bleed off, so he put it into a stall position to get rid of the airspeed.”
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That is a good explanation. He obviously hit very short and very hard.
We should all give thanks that it was not a TOTAL disaster.

[jonrick46]

You are correct. It was a low landing and the fireworks were the result of aluminum getting hot as it rubbed on the landing strip.

[jonrick46]

I believe you are correct. The idea of a bomb was a knee jerk reaction to reporter Anthony Castorani’s description. Someone speculated that it may have been a change in wind direction causing the wings to have a sudden loss of lift.

[Yosemitest]

I agree.
But what I'd like to know is the compression rate and control instructions from the air traffic controllers starting with his descent from SF Center, through SF TRACON to the handoff to the tower.
Did the controllers keep him high in altitude and not allow enough of a descent rate due to traffic departing under him (the four-post operation of a busy TRACON)?
And did the controllers keep his speed up with their control instructions, until too short of a final when they handed him off to the tower, and not allow him time to bleed off the airspeed, due to the arrival rate of aircraft they were shoe-stringing down final at that time?

[AlexW]

“what I’d like to know is the compression rate and control instructions from the air traffic controllers”
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Surely, that is all on tape and will be analyzed.
It may well turn out to be a combination of factors
involving ATC and the pilot. ATC, however, is rarely, if ever, found negligent even when they are.

[Yosemitest]

It will be analyzed, first from controller statements, and then from the radar playback and then from the voice tapes.
It usually is a "chain of events", and you said

"ATC, however, is rarely, if ever, found negligent even when they are."

Excuse me, but I've got over 26 years experience with the USANG and USAF, and 5 years with the FAA as an air traffic controller, most of them as Control Tower Watch Supervisor/Senior Controller.
I disagree.
Controllers usually get what's called "A Contributing Factor", hence why I asked those questions.
It's not impossible for "Pilot Error" to be the ONLY factor, but it's rare.

[octex]

On FNC earlier, they said Asianair was the second ranked airline in South Korea. Korean Air was number one there.”
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Stupid me. I spelled it like I heard some Brit on FNC said it! He is a good reporter, but tends to add “R” to words that end in “A”, like the damned Kennedys did/do (remember JFK saying “Cubar”?). ....Should be Asiana.

[AlexW]

“Stupid me. I spelled it like I heard”
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That’s no problem. Anyway, one can check the ratings here:
http://www.airlinequality.com/StarRanking/5star.htm
I think it is sad that no American carrier can rate more then three stars.

[meyer]

It may well turn out to be a combination of factors involving ATC and the pilot.

As one who is intimately familiar with the Northeast blackout of 2003, I would guess that this is the most likely situation. In that situation, it was several factors that put into play the events that put the lights out for so many millions of people.

Most of the time, there are overlaps in the precautions (layers of protection if you will) taken to prevent any one error from causing a disaster.

[AlexW]

Well, fault will be argued till the cows come home.
At this point it is silly to arm chair debate it.
We should all give thanks that it was not much more serious.
Usually, all we hear is “no survivors”.
By the way, I do not remember a 2003 blackout. I was probably out of the country. I do, however, remember the big blackout of all of the northeast in the early? sixties.
I remember my father was in NYC on business that night.

[meyer]

Northeast Blackout report, for your reading (dis)pleasure:

http://www.nerc.com/docs/docs/blackout/NERC_Final_Blackout_Report_07_13_04.pdf

[AlexW]

“Northeast Blackout report, for your reading (dis)pleasure:”
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Thanks, but it is a bit more then I want to wade through, since it did not affect me while in Europe, haha.
As with the 60s blackout, there was obviously a chain reaction with “so called” safety switches not working.
As we say, S*** happens. All of the precautions in the world will not stop it from happening.
I might add, while in Slovakia, power failures were mostly unheard of. Most all electrical distribution is under ground. I very rarely saw a power line.
In five years there I remember only one blackout, due to a backhoe digging in the wrong location.

[Mouton]

A buddy was freight manager for JAL at that time. He related the story along with the “window seat” comment.

[Raven6]

Yes... Pilot declared emergency regarding indication of fire in the cargo hold. That is why C&R trucks were on scene so quickly - they were waiting for aircraft to land so that the fire could be extinguished...