After 30 years of Air Traffic Control experience, most as Tower Watch Supervisor in the USAF, this was a Pilot Error Crash.The pilot came in too steep, with too much airspeed to bleed off, so he put it into a stall position to get rid of the airspeed.
But he stalled it out and got lucky that he belly landed it into the underrun, and the closed portion of the runway, before the landing threshold and leaving a portion of the tail in the bay.
Check out the last 5 minutes of this link at the bottom of the page
- EDT Latitude Longitude Course Direction KTS MPH feet Rate Location/Type
02:23PM 37.5192 -122.1390 298° West 221 254 4,300 -240 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5266 -122.1570 297° West 212 244 4,200 -720 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5351 -122.1760 299° West 208 239 3,900 -960 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5414 -122.1910 298° West 204 235 3,700 -1,080 FlightAware
02:24PM 37.5481 -122.2070 298° West 203 234 3,400 -1,200 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5548 -122.2230 298° West 195 224 3,100 -1,140 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5614 -122.2390 297° West 190 219 2,800 -1,500 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5669 -122.2520 298° West 187 215 2,400 -1,320 FlightAware
02:25PM 37.5730 -122.2660 299° West 187 215 2,200 -1,080 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5785 -122.2790 298° West 186 214 1,900 -1,020 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5847 -122.2940 298° West 178 205 1,700 -1,020 FlightAware
02:26PM 37.5900 -122.3070 297° West 169 194 1,400 -1,380 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.5988 -122.3270 299° West 145 167 800 -1,380 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6016 -122.3340 297° West 141 162 600 -1,320 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6045 -122.3410 298° West 134 154 400 -900 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6073 -122.3480 297° West 123 142 300 -840 FlightAware
02:27PM 37.6103 -122.3550 298° West 109 125 100 -120 FlightAware
02:28PM 37.6170 -122.3740 294° West 85 98 200 120 FlightAware