Posted on 04/15/2013 8:47:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Just Toomey, Collins, Kirk, and Maverick John McCain so far, but expect a few more to flip soon. Jeff Flake’s on the fence but he’s probably worried about voting no on gun control across the board when fellow Arizonan Gabby Giffords is campaigning hard against it in the media. (Since McCain’s apparently voting yes, Flake has some cover to follow suit.) Dean Heller has also been galloping towards the center ever since his close call against Shelley Berkley in last year’s Senate race in purplish Nevada. That’s six Republicans — normally enough to break a filibuster when the Senate’s 55 Democrats vote together. Are they voting together this time? Pryor and Begich voted against even considering the bill, so presumably they’re both no’s the rest of the way. Frank Lautenberg’s ill and unlikely to be on the floor this week, so that’s 58 for Reid right now.
Who’ll be numbers 59 and 60?
There are a dozen other Republicans who voted for a motion to proceed on the gun control bill last week, including Sens. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Jeff Flake (Ariz.), Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Johnny Isakson (Ga.) and Dean Heller (Nev.).
Flake on Friday was reviewing the bill while Heller’s office said the senator “will not support any plan that creates a federal gun registry.” Corker is reviewing the bill, according to The Tennessean. Chambliss has made it clear that he opposes the underlying gun control bill that is headed to the Senate floor…
Centrist Democrats who are expected to vote for Manchin-Toomey are Sens. Robert Casey Jr. (Pa.), Kay Hagan (N.C.), Tim Johnson (S.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.) and Mark Warner (Va.).
But Democrats who declined to comment or didn’t say definitively where they stand on Manchin-Toomey include Sens. Max Baucus (Mont.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Mary Landrieu (La.). Baucus and Landrieu are seeking reelection in 2014 and are top GOP targets.
News is breaking on Twitter as I’m writing this that Hagan is a yes. Why would a red-state Democrat from the south commit to a bill on background checks when she’s up for reelection next year? Because: Reid’s going to give her lots of opportunities to vote no on other gun-control amendments to make voters back home happy. The whole reason Feinstein’s assault-weapons bill and a bill on high-capacity magazines will be brought to the floor is so that vulnerable Dems like Hagan and Landrieu and vulnerable blue-state GOPers like Collins can drive a stake through them and claim some pro-gun bona fides in their reelection campaigns even while they’re voting yes on background checks. Think it’ll be enough to placate gun-rights groups? In Collins’s case, at least, I’m thinking no:
The Republican conflict came to the fore last week during a closed-door luncheon for Senate Republicans, when Senator Susan Collins, of Maine, eyes blazing, stood up and complained about a series of attack ads that she was facing back home from a gun-rights group with deep ties to Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky…
Her comments, according to several Republican aides, ignited a tense debate, similar to many the party has faced since its loss in the race for the White House last year. Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, stood to say he had been raising money for Ms. Collins’ re-election, only to watch her have to spend it to defend herself against the attack from the gun group, which has been directed at other members as well…
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a freshman ally of Mr. Paul’s, jumped in to promise he had nothing to do with the group, according to officials briefed on the event. Then Mr. Paul, feeling attacked, stormed out. (A spokeswoman for Mr. Paul did not respond to repeated requests for comment.)
One other X factor here is immigration. My assumption is that vulnerable Dems are more likely to vote yes on the Gang of Eight bill then they are on the Toomey/Manchin bill simply because they’re likely to have more Republicans voting with them on immigration. But that vote always carries some risk in red states, and if Landrieu and Pryor and the rest are committed to it, then maybe they feel they have no choice but to vote against gun control in its entirety, including Toomey/Manchin, to retain some goodwill with conservatives back home. Hard to gauge, though, when the fate of immigration reform is still so dicey. What if Landrieu’s expecting/hoping that the Gang of Eight bill will collapse soon, now that conservatives are about to turn their full focus to it? In that case she’ll never get a chance to vote, which means she can afford to be a little squishier on background checks to appease liberals. Lots of moving parts in the Senate machinery right now. I wonder who’ll end up getting sucked into the machine and flattened next November.
Here’s Alan Gottlieb of Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms insisting that Toomey/Manchin is actually a total win for gun-rights supporters and that they should get behind it. The NRA, needless to say, does not agree.
Update: Don’t overlook the possibility of a cloture/final vote switcheroo either. Reid can probably get to 51 votes on the final bill even without red-state Democrats. Where he really needs them is on the cloture vote, to beat a GOP filibuster. How many of them will be willing to vote yes on cloture and no on the final bill on the theory that gun-rights fans in their home states care more about the final vote than the cloture vote?
It is dumb for a red state senator to vote for this bill IF the House is going to kill it.
Why pay that political penalty, a penalty that will apply even if it is voted down by the House?
I expect it to be voted down by the House.
If it is not, then we have been totally and completely lied to about what having a Republican House is supposed to mean. And maybe we have been lied to.
I would. There is little chance, if not zero, that the Senate bill gets out with a magazine ban, it is not going to happen. Even if it does, it would be stripped in any House committee.
:)
A federal bill that forces gun rights back on NY, CT, MD and CO would bring tears to my eyes, laughing naturally.
right, in fact at least one Blue State (BS) senator is getting cold feet about the Bill.
collins was crying about being the focus of an ad campaign calling her out on her anti-civil rights stance on this issue.
She is too stupid to understand she does not represent the VAST MAJORITY of the base.
She has her head up her hamptons along with mayor doomburg.
just a short step to “prove you are sane.”
just like right to die becomes DUTY TO DIE.
We live in a state supreme country now. This is just another extention of it. This typle of blanket judicial procedure is not valid IMO either. Whoever approved this or thought it up should be burned at the stake.
I thought I heard Boehner on TV the other day bad-mouthing the bill.
I hope I heard correctly.
Perhaps you are right. But I have heard the “Never going to happen” to many times to expect that to be the truth
“Those dirty, traitors.”
Heller and Flake are “republican Mormons.” Reid is a RAT Mormon. The Mormon Church should be ashamed to continue to allow these men to be members.
“Frank Lautenberg’s ill and unlikely to be on the floor this week,”
Does anybody know if he’s going to die soon?
I thought his brain’s been dead for years, the body just hasn’t caught up, yet.
Molon Labe - “Come and take them” you filthy parasite. I wanted to use a few choice expletives, but we have to keep it clean.
The Second Amendment Requires the states to ratify any change, which would take two voting cycles before it became changed as the individual states have to approve it. Note the senators are forgetting that the states have to ratify the change in the amendment it is not accomplished by a Yah or Nay Vote.
Remind your senators. If you can recall the senator in your state do so if he votes to have this travesty. I do not believe it will pass the House, but keep in mind the Sequester Money is Obama’s Pay for Play Money to buy the vote. He knows that it will go to court and be wrapped in the court system, by than he would have the court stacked with liberals.
Good point. Also what about illegals (in interim prior to their RINO-enstated amnesty)? They won’t want to present real credentials or won’t have them. My guess is minorities and illegals are given a wink and nod but all constitution loving citizens must submit. That what this is all about isn’t it? You must submit and become assimilated. Resistance is futile.
At least four Republican senators likely to vote yes on gun purchase background-checks bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No Mercy. Incessant campaigns against them should be launched immediately.
Anyone have any idea if there's at least a Twitter blowback to any of these clowns on this?
RE: Does anybody know if he’s going to die soon?
Doesn’t look like it.
See here:
http://nj1015.com/frank-lautenberg-will-keep-working-from-home/
Frank Lautenberg Will Keep Working From Home
“I thought his brain’s been dead for years, the body just hasn’t caught up, yet.”
Very true, but as long as his blood is circulating, the RATs can prop him up in his seat and do a “Weekend at Bernie’s” with him. If he were to meet his maker, Christie gets an appointment, which would probably not be much better, but it would change the D/R ratio in the Senate, and make Reid more nervous to keep pulling the $h!t he’s been doing for the past five years.
Washington DC is a bird of prey with one right wing and one left wing. Taxpayers are but mice scurrying about.
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