Is Western Intervention In Syria Imminent?

Reason.com ^ | 12/6/2012 | Ed Krayewski

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

The NATO Alliance announced earlier this week that Patriot missles will be deployed in Turkey...

The USS Eisenhowser was reported to arrived in the area yesterday off the Syrian coast in the Mediterranean. It holds 8,000 soldiers and eight fighter bomber squandrons.

The U.S. Senate... has voted for the Pentagon to present military options available on Syria...

...

[Zajko]

‘The question is, what will Putin want.’

I think the simple answer to this is, he’ll want to keep the Russian naval base at Tartus. It’s enormously strategically important, being Russia’s only permanent naval base in the Mediterranean, or indeed anywhere outside the former USSR.

I’d expect some deal whereby the ‘Free Syrian Army’ agreed to allow the base to remain in place (initially, at least) in return for the Russians agreeing to turn a blind eye to whatever Obama eventually decides to do in Syria.

[Pining_4_TX]

I don’t even believe the report about the gas. This was the necessary pretext.

[Tzimisce]

The dangerous powers of the world unite as we sit on asses smoking pot and collecting our government checks.

Welcome to Obamaland 2012. :)

[justa-hairyape]

I’d expect some deal whereby the ‘Free Syrian Army’ agreed to allow the base to remain in place (initially, at least) in return for the Russians agreeing to turn a blind eye to whatever Obama eventually decides to do in Syria.

Deja Vu all over again. That was the deal that was supposed to brokered last time, but just a day or two later one of the rebel groups stated they would not allow the base. The force driving this entire intervention is the House Saud. And they are not very happy with the Russians supporting the Shiites.

[Zajko]

I’m in Saudi Arabia right now. Papers here are full of ‘bloodthirsty tyrant continues to massacre own people as heroic fighters struggle on for freedom’ -type headlines. As compared to the reporting on the situation in Bahrain (Sunni minority elite, Shi’ite population - i.e. reverse of Syria) which is more along the lines of ‘bands of armed terrorists attack law enforcement forces in streets, as government struggles to maintain law and order’.

[crosshairs]

Whatever will assist the Muslim Brotherhood and get more of our troops killed, O’Beelzebub is all for it.

[justa-hairyape]

Wow. Good luck over there. If you see a bright flash of light, hit the ground. Just kidding. Yeah the old Sunni verses Shiite battle is heating up again. You really must feel like you are living in Orwells 1984 over there (we have always been at war with the Shia).

[Zajko]

It’s not the most fun place in the world to be for a while, but it’s certainly interesting on some levels. It’s actually a lot calmer and more stable here now, than when I first visited back in 2004.

I spent a year in Damascus back in 2007-8, as well - completely different environment, of course, but a fascinating city - far preferable to Saudi on a quality-of-life basis from both a personal and cultural standpoint. At that time, of course. Not so much right now.

[Tailgunner Joe]

Yes only Holy Crusader Putin can save us! Only Putin can prove that the rebels are planning to gas themselves to make Assad look bad! Down with America! Go Putin! Go Russia!

[MasterGunner01]

Well, it could also be that Assad's boys and the New Syrian Army will gas each other like Iran and Iraq did for eight years during the 1980’s. The danger for everyone around them is if those chemical warfare shells go outside Syria's borders and things could get dicey very fast. Just sayin’.

[robowombat]

So far the Mahdi has played the Syria business pretty cleverly. The US wants to get rid of Iran's only ally in the region for a number of reasons chief among them depriving Syria of a naval replenishment base in the Med. Iran has no real navy but has suddenly decided it is going to build a blue water capability. The US knows the Iranians are going to have some sort of nuclear capability in the near term and nuclear capability plus a blue water navy means developing some sort of asymmetric threat system to use on the US and other infidels (EMP or something like it perhaps). So time to torpedo the Syrian-Iranian axis. The Saudis see things the same way. They are happy to collaborate in rallying the merry men who were shooting at us in iraq a few years ago. Arm them anew and send them off to crusdae against he Alawite heretics. When the Assad regime goes down or compresses into a small corner of Syria and the rest of Syria turns into fragmented chaos the Hezbollah may find themselves between a lot of Sunni with blood in their eye and Israel. At the least the Hezbollah will have to cut a lower profile ant the best they will get the Alawite treatment. A Middle East without Assad, without an Iranian ally and without Hezbollah will be a bit safer a quieter for a while. Of course once Iran gets a nuclear capability all of the Arab states and Turkey will have to have nukes as well and we lknow where that is likely to lead to. But the Mahdi will be out of office by them and it will be someone else problem.

However direct western involvement in Syria is about a hundred times dumber than the US adventure in nation building in Iraq. If BHO signs off on that one he is a lot dumber than I have thought he was.

[bert]

The situation does not require our intervention because Turkey and the GCC are making progress. The prospect of Chemical weapons may require US very special trained forces for containment.

There is a strategic plan but we have not been provided details.

[robowombat]

Direct US participation of any sort should be off the table. It might be interesting to see how competent the Syrians are to use their chemical weapons. Why all the high moral tone about chemical weapons anyway? Gassing is more inhumane than high explosives? Chemical weapons can be persistent nuisances but that is the problem of those on the ground not us.

[bert]

In alliances, it is not necessary for all to have the same capabilities.

Turkey and the GCC are American allies and do not posses the chemical weapons expertise of America. If the weapons are captured, it will be prudent for our experts to take control of them and assure safe disposition.

[robowombat]

Yes, there are plenty of characters on the ground in Syria who gaining possession of chemical weapons such as Sarin could be a nightmare. Considering how many chemical weapons the Syrians have it is going to be difficult to keep at least some from getting in the wrong hands.