[Kleon]

I took a quick look at the RCP site, but could not find a link to the basis of their final FL projection, do you happen to have it?

Sure, it's here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

Final RCP average was +1.5 for Romney.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

Thanks,

A quick look tells us what happened: poll selection.

Just off the top of my head, RPC was excluding:

- Ipsos/Reuters
- JZ Analytics/Newsmax
- Angus-Reid
- YouGov
- Mellman

and likely a host of others which were included by PEC.

I can’t find a link to their poll selection methodology, so I don’t know their selection criteria, but whatever it was, it was the source of much if not all of their error.