Posted on 11/07/2012 12:06:52 PM PST by TigerClaws
Dick Morris explains why his prediction was completely off:
I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I’m with you; we’re halfway there. Between 5-10 m stayed home, but they did not switch their votes unfortunately. I was talking to someone today that said he “wasn’t into Mormonism” because he objected to missionaries knocking at his door. He said he actually liked Paul Ryan. Maybe everyone else had heard that as a reason vote was suppressed for Romney, but I hadn’t.
Then the MSM Communists need to go.
That’s a great point, and would account for a lot of this just not adding up.
I have no use for recriminations, I don’t think it was a perfect campaign, but it should have been enough, should have been plenty.
This was a wave election for real conservatives, but not for so called ‘moderate’ Republicans, or Indies, and not for democrats.
If you find those numbers - please ping me.
Poll question, now that I’m thinking about it. All along, we heard that enthusiasm was up for R’s over D’s. Here’s my question: When saying ‘enthusiasm is up for an R’ ... does this mean a.) One who identifies as a Republican or b.) Anyone who answered that they were voting for Romney.
Do we know anything about Independent enthusiasm?
I’m sure I could look at some internals, but I imagine someone knows, and I think if I look at another internal, my own internals will spew out my mouth :-)
Point #1, I could never figure out how the racial identity is known from a ballot. And Point #2, The voting youth who support this vile regime are in for a rude awakening when the money runs out to pay for their cherished entitlements!
Very embarrasing
You’re always wrong, Dick. No need to explain.
Obama GAINED votes from his base groups - Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Single Women. A lot of votes.
Which means he LOST a ton of white votes, independents, moderates, males, that voted for him in 2008.
So say he started with his 69 million total from 2008. Add about 8 million (estimate) to that on increased Latino, Black, Asian and Single Female vote. That would have put him at 77 million but instead he will end up at 64 million or so.
So about 13 million people who voted for him last time left him in droves. Whites, Males, Catholics, Moderates, Independents, etc.
Romney was up in exit polls in all those categories. Yet Romney appears to be eventually ending up with what McCain got maybe a little more. Say 62 million as a generous number.
So where did the 10 million or more people who left Obama but didn’t vote for Romney go?? They ALL sat home and didn’t vote? That is one of 3 possibilities, all seemingly curious and unlikely.
The other two possibilities are: 1) what Romney gained from siphoned off Obama 2008 votes he lost from people who sat out because he is Mormon or too liberal/moderate; 2) vote fraud where Romney votes disappeared into the ether.
Where did those 10 million white Obama 2008 voters go???
Good ol Dick, admitting he’s wrong but for all the wrong reasons. The rollback DID happen just like he said, what he missed was the chunk of core conservatives that like Romney even less than they like McCain.
Hindsight is always 20/20, isn’t it Dick.
true
Morris was only wrong about the depth of theft that bama and his cretonnes used...
Very intriguing question. I imagine many Democrats are disillusioned with Obama but not enough to vote Republican so they sit 2012 out. If fraud is responsible for erasing 10 million votes that is likely to come to light eventually.
“And we laughed thinking zerO’s move to get nasty and partison during the campaign in order to appeal to his base was dumb because the infamous indies would win the election.”
Yeah I have to admit I fell for that. Seemed logical. Traditionally, if you are only pandering to sew up your base late in the election while the other guy is grabbing moderates/indies, you are headed for defeat.
But unless it was just straight out fraud, Team Obama must have calculated their base way wayyyy larger than anything Romney could mobilize and win with. That’s why a campaign that seemed to be running on small ideas and pettiness actually was executing a winning strategy. They have the votes.
I love how Morris tries to dump some of his error on Chris Christie. If you look at the polls before Hurricane Sandy, the results were already baked in. But you have to look at all the polls OTHER than Rasmussen and Gallup who made the same damn mistake that Morris did.
Which brings me to the larger point. Morris is the obvious screw-up here but Gallup and Rasmussen did the EXACT same thing Morris did: made the wrong assumptions.
Gallup and Rasmussen should have known better and not tinkered with their party ID results. If you survey 1000 people and 30% identify as Republican and 40% identify as Democrats THEN THERE IS A +10 DEM ADVANTAGE AND YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS MESSING WITH THAT!
If you survey 1000 people a month later and 35% identify as Republican and 35% identify as Democrats THEN THERE IS NO PARTY ADVANTAGE AND YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS MESSING WITH THAT!
ABC/WashPo said there was a +6 advantage in their final poll and did not weight a damn thing. Exit polls come out election day, +6 dem advantage.
Please let this election be the end of “skewed” talk....it always was and always will be BS.
Deport them and they don't vote.
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