Because the media has had its Obama knee pads on since he won the nomination over Hillary on '08.
1. When a conservative is surrounded by liberal friends and asked by a pollster, they sometimes answer saying they’ll vote liberal, when they are a closeted conservative.
2. Over-sampling of liberals, because they are home to answer the phone.
3. Using 2008 turnout data that led to Obama’s win, instead of 2010 turnout data that led to Tea Party win
4. Pollsters asking questions that are so convoluted, the default answer is “yes” in favor of the desired outcome.
Why that may not be enough:
1. Voter fraud in favor of democrats
2. Suppression of military vote with their mostly Republican ballots not arriving in time or being counted
3. Vote machine shennanigans
4. Mail in ballot fraud by Democrats to hijack Republican voting
5. Legal maneuvers to invalidate results that favor Republicans
So polls may be biased toward the Democratic result, but fraud and theft may still enable them to win.
They believe that the White voter is not going to turnout in the numbers to defeat the 'ethnic' voter as in 08.
That is the demographic dominating the polls.
1. Because the thought of it makes me feel better than dealing with reality.
2. So I have an excuse when Romney loses.
3. So there is yet another useless thread to consume FR resources.
They had to have this election sewed up going in -- and thusly why you see the MSM/DemPollOrgs generate the same fake meme -- because otherwise they are going to be destroyed by Election Day turnout. You see this already happening today in Ohio where through early voting alone, Mitt has erased Bobo's 2008 margin of victory.
Wishful thinking.
There is no doubt why the polls are all wrong.
They are working for the Obama campaign.
It’s just that simple.
The Media has been working for Obama since day one.
Soon they will have to change their tactics, from Fellating Obama to attacking Mitt Romney.
It will be an easy move for them.
Political operatives have figured out that polls are the cheapest most cost-effective and efficient method of influencing public opinion yet. Why advertize and hope to sway someone when you can put out a poll that says what you want it to and they (even “US”) will swallow it hook, line, and sinker.
There is no validation or certification of pollsters, not even a crappy Good Housekeeping or Consumers Report.
They can lie, manipulate the data, shade it with any number of crapscience techinques designed to make the smarter among “us” think it is statistically valid, or just make the numbers up out of thin air. I can’t prove they did this - but you can’t prove the didn’t either!
By shrouding crap with science they borrow the techniques of that eminent crapscientist Algore and the Univ. of East Anglica to promote their agenda with enough “science” to fool the naive. If you wouldn’t turn to the MSM talking heads to interpret a scientific research report, why trust them to interpret statistical results of polls?
Bottom line: it’s a fraudulent business from end to end. There may be exceptions but for the most part I am convinced they manipulate data to give their clients the answer they are after and justify this manipulation with pseudoscientific BS designed to placate those who haven’t caught onto their tricks.
As for specifics, the turnout models are asinine -- most of them predict that Democrats will have turnout superior to their 2008 "wave election" numbers. And the only reason they do so is because they have to weight it that way to diminish the huge lead Romney has with independents.
Romney leads independents and gets enough GOP base to win this easily. I stand by my 53-45-2 popular vote and 338-200 electoral vote prediction.
The polls are wrong because the pollsters and pundits are pulling data from 2008 when they should be looking at 2010. Also the pollsters are on the side of what is legal and lawful whereas the Obama machine and the media are living in a illegal realm where the end justifies the means. No one is looking at Obamas lawlessness and his cheating. The media knows that if they showed the true stats this race would have been over already so the lie and make it sound like a tie to fool the voter.
I think the poster who keeps putting up that pollsters only reach 9% of people with telephones any more has nailed it.
I know our phone has been going berzerk with polls and political calls, all of which we screen using caller ID. I think it’s become an unworkable proposition but they have too much money tied-up in it to admit anything.
what scares me is we said much the same thing in 08.
This is the first chance the Tea Party has had to vote the SOB out.
I don’t understand why people will undeniably state “Romney will win! Obama will win!” How do you know? Because of polls, pundits or some great insider information? Truth is, no one knows. Polls could all be wrong, or right… so why make a prediction?
I’m going out and voting straight R, so you know where I stand, but I’m prepared to face the very grim reality that we could get 4 more years of the worse president in history. An alcoholic has to hit rock bottom before they can recover. The USA is in bad shape thanks to The One (and every president since Reagan), but we haven’t reached rock bottom. The fact that Obama can clearly play class warfare, run up a 6 trillion dollar debt, and severly hinder the economy, and constantly lie through his teeth yet still make this a close race is a sad reflection on where we are as a society.
Electing a conservative president is only a small step, changing the hearts and minds of people and restoring solid Christian conservative values to this country will be climbing a mountain. If that’s not done, we’ll only get Obama 2.0 in another 4 or 8 years.
1) Gas Prices are still SKY HIGH.
2) Unemployment is still SKY HIGH.
3) Young graduates have debt, no jobs.
4) BO stinks! Always has, but now... more people know it.
For all the analysis that people do, sometimes.... it’s really not that hard to tell who’s gonna win. USUALLY, it’s the “more likable guy”.
McCain had ZERO chance, from the moment he limped onto the stage with the young, smiling, energetic, articulate & clean, black man.
John “Effing” Kerry was an arrogant snob...
Gore was a complete dumbass, and MOST people knew it... (especially in his home state). Scary how close it was.
Bubba? Need I say more?
Bush 41 vs Doofus Dukakis..
The trend goes on...
I think, Romney won the election in the debates, when people ACTUALLY SAW him, in real time, smiling... looking like the successful business man that he is, and being OPTIMISTIC. After the debates, for the FIRST TIME, Romney pulled even, to slightly ahead in LIKABILITY.
It’s a little sad... but, I REALLY think, this is the MOST important factor. In this election, it’s close... but, I think ROMNEY has the edge.
(1) When the economy is viewed as bad, the incumbent party always loses.
1976: Ford-R - lost to Carter
1980: Carter-D - lost to Reagan
1992: Bush-R - lost to Clinton
2008: McCain-R (GOP had held WH previous 8 years) - lost to Obama
If you’ll go back through presidential elections you’ll find this holds true every time with one exception—FDR. But, there’s no reason to think Obama will be an exception like FDR.
(2) The Tea Party
There’s no reason to think they won’t be just as enthused to vote as they were in 2010. This gives a huge enthusiasm (and turnout advantage) to the GOP this cycle.
The polls though, seem to think the tea party movement is dead, and that tea partiers will actually be LESS likely to vote than in 2010. I think tomorrow’s story will be “where did these voters come from, and how did the polls miss them?”
I think many polls are political tools to demoralize Republicans from voting. Exit polls should not be published until voting closes in Hawaii.