[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Have at it.

[TheRhinelander]

This sums it up.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[.45 Long Colt]

Pollsters knowingly over sampled Dems because they feared recriminations from the regime more than they wanted to be accurate.

[secret garden]

9% response rate.

[cripplecreek]

I think both sides want people to believe its close to get people out to vote.

[Raycpa]

Why are we so worried about the polls. We never hear about the Italians, or the Irish. Polls this, polls that. Hey, they make great sausage and all but they are highly over rated.

[BornToBeAmerican]

1. Tea Party
2. Mid Term Elections
3. Scott Walkers inital win
4. Scott Walkers increased majority after millions spent trying to recall
5. Chic-fil-A
6. YOU CANNOT BELIEVE THE MEDIA!!!!!

perhaps #6 should have been #1

[The Hound Passer]

They are not “cooked,” per se. The info is probably accurate. It’s their assumptions about who is going to show up to vote that is likely wrong. O isn’t going to get the turn out he got in ‘08, and R is likely to get a larger turnout than McCain.

[Raycpa]

Series: It is the attempt at including cell phones and still getting a representative sample.

[mrsmith]

They were skewed by the aberrant 2008 numbers.
Garbage in garbage out.

[MortMan]

The constant, and accelerating, oversampling of dems and certain demographics is a dead give away of the push nature of their polls, IMO.

[cincinnati65]

Look at the internals: One poll I saw this morning showed white voters. College educated males, big for Romney. Non-college males, big for Romney. Non-college females, big for Romney. College females, even. Independents, big for Romney.

Overall, Obama by 3%.

[dennisw]

oversampling of dems `which should have ended 10 days ago to preserve credibility and future business. They are still over sampling Democrats, they could give a crap

Today’s CNN poll has Ohio tied

[Impala64ssa]

I’m thinking Romney wins this. Not a Reagan-type landslide but it will be a decisive victory.

[jpl]

I don’t think the polls are wrong. I think we have exactly what they say we have: an extremely close, almost 50-50 race, very similar to 2000 and 2004.

[Zakeet]

Don't forget the: The Bradley Effect

[bestintxas]

Pollsters are like their President.

They Lie

[Shery]

!. They didn’t factor in the Tea Party vote
2. They used a lot smaller samples of the population to get their data
3. They feared being sued by the Obama administration for seeming to be partisan, in favor of the republicans.

[ShovelThemOut]

The presidential polls are wrong.

We were told this TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap with the Wisconsin Recall. 49 MINUTES after the polls closed the election was called for Walker, who won 53-46.

To all you worry warts: take a sweet trip down memory lane and watch this youtube video of MSNBC announcing how we would be up all night before knowing who won, and then having to eat crow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs

[dblshot]

Because the samples are not radomly selected from the total population, they are inherently skewed. In sampling, it is required that each and every individual, whether that be a widget or a person, must have the same chance of being selected. Polls use filters to pick their individuals which means they are not doing random sampling. Saying that you need x number of samples out of y number of the total population for a 95% confidence rate without random sampling is incorrect in statistical practice. As long as there is a filter like using the results of the last sampling effort to pick individuals for a new sample the results are skewed. That’s not to say that a broke clock isn’t right twice a day. So some polsters may hit the right numbers. But then there are a lot of polls. Another factor is the use of polls to drive results later. Proplr like to be on the winning team.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Evangelicals have yet to vote. 22 mil voter guides were distributed. 9,000 churches, 1.6 mil. calls per David Barton on Glenn Beck yesterday.