(1) When the economy is viewed as bad, the incumbent party always loses.
1976: Ford-R - lost to Carter
1980: Carter-D - lost to Reagan
1992: Bush-R - lost to Clinton
2008: McCain-R (GOP had held WH previous 8 years) - lost to Obama
If you’ll go back through presidential elections you’ll find this holds true every time with one exception—FDR. But, there’s no reason to think Obama will be an exception like FDR.
(2) The Tea Party
There’s no reason to think they won’t be just as enthused to vote as they were in 2010. This gives a huge enthusiasm (and turnout advantage) to the GOP this cycle.
The polls though, seem to think the tea party movement is dead, and that tea partiers will actually be LESS likely to vote than in 2010. I think tomorrow’s story will be “where did these voters come from, and how did the polls miss them?”
You're right. He's worse.