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This is slightly on the pessimistic side, but I suspect it does indicate where they think the opportunities are -- if not Ohio, then Pennsylvania, if not those two, then Wisconsin and Colorado. The last ditch one, if it's not a Romney blowout, is likely Iowa, Colorado, and Maine's 2nd CD for a total of 269.

Virginia is crucial, that's the one to watch early tomorrow.

I'm not saying any of this to be optimistic or pessimistic, if it's decisive one way or another, it will be known in short order. But if it's close, here's what we should be watching most closely.

1 posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:25 PM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: Numbers Guy

Here are the scenarios:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC VA FL IN CO. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (the tie scenario).


2 posted on 11/05/2012 7:53:19 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed (Hold My Beer and Watch This!)
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To: Numbers Guy
Should it drift away

Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before elections day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.

5 posted on 11/05/2012 8:03:22 PM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: Numbers Guy
Should it drift away

Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before election day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.

6 posted on 11/05/2012 8:03:34 PM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: Numbers Guy

Romney was interviewed on his plane by Greta tonight and he said Ohio is done... he says he will win Ohio and the presidency and that trumps any campaign worker... named or otherwise.

LLS


8 posted on 11/05/2012 8:06:29 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: Numbers Guy

I think Wisconsin is the the surprise. Pick up WI and one a small state and you don’t need Ohio.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 8:09:54 PM PST by cornfedcowboy (Trust in God, but empty the clip.)
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To: Numbers Guy

Republicans have gained between 8.9% and 12.9% in voter self identification since 2008. These are numbers are generated by in depth studies over tens of thousands of interviews with voters. If we gain even the low end of this range, all this talk is garbage as its going to be a clean sweep.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 8:09:56 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: Numbers Guy

Be prepared for the media to do everything it can to suppress Republican votes, including calling as many states for Obama as early as they can and dragging their heels calling any states for Romney that aren’t blatantly obvious. That means guys out West will be voting thinking Obama is ahead and folks in the East going to bed with the illusion that Obama is going to win. When they wake up the next morning, they’re going to assume that Republicans stole the election again with dirty tricks when, in reality, the media vastly overstated Obama’s victories and downplayed Romney’s until the inevitable truth could no longer be avoided.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 8:13:26 PM PST by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Numbers Guy

Various sources have reported that Romney’s margins in Ohio have varied between +2 and -2 over the past couple of weeks. This insider is saying Ohio is unpredictable because of that variation.

If the extremely late deciders break even remotely for Romney, he will win. If they don’t, then it will be very, very close and could go either way.

We should get a definitive answer tomorrow. Personally, I like our chances.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 8:19:27 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Numbers Guy

Ugh.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 8:51:40 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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NOT GOOD.


27 posted on 11/05/2012 9:14:29 PM PST by yield 2 the right (2012, the election year that stinks!)
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To: Numbers Guy

btw....I just love these “insiders” who remain nameless....


28 posted on 11/05/2012 9:15:24 PM PST by cherry
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To: Numbers Guy

this puppy is dead!!!
325++
53 in the senate and
no losses in the house
Conservatives are going to have the weirdest smiles on their faces for the longest time
happy new year everyone
the bloody nightmare is over


32 posted on 11/05/2012 10:32:51 PM PST by genghis
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