Posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:23 PM PST by Numbers Guy
Boston — Romney officials tell National Review Online that the campaign is focused on two key states as Election Day nears: Ohio and Pennsylvania. They believe that they are competitive in Ohio, but should it drift away, they’re looking at Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes as a possible substitute for the Buckeye State. “We have got to win one of those two states and do well everywhere else,” a Romney adviser says. “We’re still pushing in Ohio, but it’s unpredictable. Pennsylvania, however, is really in play.”
Romney’s final-day schedule reflects his strategy. On Tuesday, he will campaign in Pittsburgh, Pa., and Cleveland, Ohio, according to campaign aides. “Pennsylvania is one of the states where the president is under 50 percent,” says Kevin Madden, a Romney aide. “In the western part of the state, near Pittsburgh, there is a large coal economy and the president is losing support there. We are confident that the governor can do well in that area and in the Philadelphia suburbs, especially with independents.”
Yet as Pennsylvania rises, Ohio continues to be an uphill battle for Romney. He’s heading to Cleveland, part of a manufacturing region in northeast Ohio, hoping to win over disgruntled blue-collar workers in the final hours. “We’re doing everything we can, but I don’t see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory,” says a Romney insider. “The president has been hammering us for months,” and the auto bailout is popular.
It’s been over a century since a Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, but Romney advisers are confident that they can figure out a path to 270 electoral votes should Ohio and its 18 electoral votes go blue.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I think it shows Romney is willing to keep working...good sign....while BO is off to play basketball....
They definitely did so in 2000, esp in Florida. I remember when they called Florida for Gore. I pulled in the county by county data from Florida from 1996 and 1992 and started projecting final totals for Florida based on percent of precincts in -- and my conclusion was "this is too close to call".
Around 2 a.m. they called Florida for Bush (largely due to a clerical error), but I looked at the numbers again, and it was clear that it was too close to call.
The lesson to me was that these people rely far too much on exit polls and guesswork and not enough on the actual numbers. Since then I've set up spreadsheets with county by county results for key states and pull in the results as they come in and see where things are headed. It's easier when it's a one-key-state election (like the Scott Walker recall), but it's really the only way to get a clear picture.
The real key, especially for 50-50 counties, is how far ahead or behind the candidate is running compared to his same-party counterpart in the most recent close election. If Romney, for instance, is running within 1 point of Bush 2004 in various closely contested Ohio counties, that's a good sign (because then it comes down to turnout and margin in Cuyahoga and Obama's going to have to come close to his 2008 turnout *and* margin).
Ugh.
lots of scenarios....
I hope people are right....if we get Ohio its over..(if we hold Col, et al)
I have to tell myself and I guess we all have to is that Romney is a master businessman and has handled this campaign suberbly and paced just right....we have to believe that he and his people know what they're doing....
just in case...LORD GOD please send your grace.....
NOT GOOD.
btw....I just love these “insiders” who remain nameless....
If Oiho votes for the Contamination ill never eat Skyline Chili again.
I take very seriously his wife's declaration that "this man will not fail." I think it is fully in his character to keep on even though he is confident of victory. I think that is part of his moral character. It certainly is sustained by his biography.
Or my favorite: New Hampshire +1 vote in Maine + Washington DC?
this puppy is dead!!!
325++
53 in the senate and
no losses in the house
Conservatives are going to have the weirdest smiles on their faces for the longest time
happy new year everyone
the bloody nightmare is over
LLS
That sums up the differences between the two right there.
I don't think we are going to see Mitt Romney out on the golf course or playing basketball all that much when he gets in. Mitt Romney has worked all his life. Obama has never held a real job and just like your average shiftless bum, he feels that every time he lifts a finger to do something, he deserves a vacation or a reward.
You forgot one:
7. NH(4) + IA(6) + NV(6)
Would rather not have the tie, as it could lead to Biden being VP.
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