Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/5/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[PhxRising]

The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.

[PhxRising]

Last Rasmussen Reports Ohio poll shows the race tied. Romney can win without Ohio if he takes 3 out of 4 of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin.

[romanesq]

This is really good news. While I expect Romney to also take Ohio, that like Nevada is a state where fraud may play a role so I’d rather not depend on it.

I’m sticking with New Hampshire as the bellwether for the election.

[goldstategop]

Romney will win OH tomorrow.

Obama is under 50%. Not a good place to be a day out from the election.

[mware]

Put PA in Romneys column and he does not need Ohio.

[ScottinVA]

I’m not liking the internals, though... Obama leads among those who voted early, 60-37 and among independents, 50-42.

So, it sounds like the rest of the nation of 315 million people is going to have to wait until Ohio makes up its mind.

[BlueStateRightist]

Amazing that OH and VA are so close given the other BLUER states (PA and WI) that apparently are in play. Anyone able to clarify the contention that the evangelical vote in OH is not being accurately accounted for in the various OH polls?

[American Constitutionalist]

Rush just said in all the national polls Obama does not even break 50 %.
Does not bode well for the incumbent.

[Spunky]

I heard Rush say the news in reporting that Romney is going back to Ohio tomorrow. Of course the news is saying this is because he is behind there.

Don't believe these polls. This is going to be a landslide for Romney.

[Viennacon]

Ohio has been blanketed with Obama’s negative ads. PA got none of that, which is why Romney is running strong. The Evangelical vote is going to be higher than pollsters are predicting, and some are saying it will put us over the top in Minnesota, where a marriage amendment is on the ballot.

[nathanbedford]

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the president leads 50% to 42%.

This is the problem. Romney probably will not win Ohio if this statistic is real but it is an outlier in the sense that everyone else has Romney carrying the independents throughout the nation.

Another interesting aspect:

Both candidates earn roughly 90% support from voters in their own party.

As you point out in a companion thread, a point or 2 deviation in intensity can dramatically alter the final score and 90% for Republicans in this atmosphere strikes one as unreasonably low.

[BlueStateRightist]

Thank you. Just praying the turnout models of these polls are incorrect. Nothing objectively adds up to this being a close election. The fundamentals of the economy and many other factors point to a strong Romney win. I still feel OH should be more reliable than PA. But maybe I’m rooted in an antiquated notion of what these states are all about.

[radpolis]

I am not so bullish on Ohio.

But I think Romney can win in alternative routes.

The fact is we can still go through Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Colorado.

If the GOP doesn’t give up on Nevada if other states are falling for Obama, like Ohio, then we can still win.

The fact is the liberal media is going to declare Obama states early to depress the GOP vote in the West.

They have always done this.

We can win without Nevada, but it would good to have it anyway.

[Nifster]

rassie is going to have mud on his face this time....he refuses to acknowledge that 2010 happened and that turn out will not look like 2008

[Atlas Sneezed]

Romney can win without Ohio if he takes 3 out of 4 of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin.

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It’s better than that:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC FL CO IN VA. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (yields EV tie)