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Rasmussen Daily: MON 11/05: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: ONE DAY TO GO!!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 11/05/2012 6:39:32 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer

Monday, November 05, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.

Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking poll tonight and release the results early Tuesday morning. Later today, we will issue our final swing state polls including Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Since mid-September, after the convention bounces faded, the candidates have generally been within three points of each other on a daily basis. Heading into the first presidential debate, Obama had a slight edge. After that debate, Romney had the advantage. For a few days in late October, Romney reached the 50% level of support and opened a modest lead. But the candidates have been tied or within two points for each other for the past eight days. See daily tracking history

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
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To: SoftwareEngineer

21 posted on 11/05/2012 7:02:21 AM PST by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: soycd

We all knew it would tighten but I never doubted the outcome.

Its breaking open now, too late for the pollsters to capture.

Ras is trying to pretend its still closer to 2008! Nope - electorate split will be even or R+1 or R+2.

In that case, it won’t be a nail-biter finish. No hanging chads!


22 posted on 11/05/2012 7:02:22 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Goldstategop,

Basically at a 95% R voting for Gov Romney, for every 1 point you take away from D turnout, add 1 to Gov Romney

So, in my commentary above, I said it was R:52 O:46 if it was D+2

So if you went to R+1, you would add three points to the Governor and remove three from the President:

So: R: 55 O:43


23 posted on 11/05/2012 7:02:42 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Stuart Varney’s analysis is that Obama’s micro-bounce from Sandy and Christie’s Greek column treatment, is OVER. As it wears off, Romney will pull ahead, just at the right time, not a moment too soon. The Mittmentum returns! LET’S DO THIS!


24 posted on 11/05/2012 7:02:56 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Any guess on what the final Gallup number will be?


25 posted on 11/05/2012 7:05:16 AM PST by TonyInOhio (Remember: THE EXIT POLLS ARE WRONG!)
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To: Democrat_media
The Gov Christie bump is fading!

But the bump in his midsection continues to grow.

26 posted on 11/05/2012 7:05:21 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: goldstategop; Outraged At FLA

You’ve got to wonder what his definition of “republican” is if he has 12% voting for Obama. Like OAFla says, “raise your hand if you’re a republican voting for Obama.”

I’m trying to think of some way he could ask for party ID and have people be confused about what “republican” means.

It’s inconceivable to me that independents would turn to a republican and republicans would turn to the opposition.

That simply doesn’t add up.


27 posted on 11/05/2012 7:06:06 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: pabianice

Unbelievable!

We better pray Gallup is right because I want it to be a landslide.

I think it’ll be a Republican electorate and the pollsters and pundits will be shocked.

Not by Romney’s being elected but by the size of his win!


28 posted on 11/05/2012 7:06:23 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Outraged At FLA
Raise your hand if you know a Republican voting for Obama lol..

Colin Powell.

Oh, wait, you said a "Republican". Never mind.

29 posted on 11/05/2012 7:09:30 AM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Here's the breakdown. The sample stayed the same but Romney now just have 86% of republican while Obama gets 89 of the democrats. Watching the enthusiasm at the Romney rallies it looks a bit weird. The support among indipendents keeps on jumping up and down, today we're at one of an all time high: +15! Keep it cool. Soon we will know the truth.
30 posted on 11/05/2012 7:09:37 AM PST by Massimo75
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To: TonyInOhio; LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ...

Tony,

If I had to take a wild and speculative guess (as we have no data points) the Gallup poll will be R:50 O:47

They polled THU, FRI, SAT, SUN

We know from other polls that THU and FRI were great President Obama days and SAT and SUN were still OK polling days for the President

Now, sadly, the conspiratorial part of me feels that Hurricane Sandy gave Gallup a good “out” from their R+6 results.

They can put out a poll like R:49 O:48 and still claim that President Obama had a “bump” and normalize with the other polls

We shall find out in 3 hours


31 posted on 11/05/2012 7:09:56 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

SE,

That’s exactly what MO seems to indicate 55-43.

If Gallup is right, its gonna be a blowout and people will be asking for years to come how the media and the pollsters got it so wrong.

Every one is playing this safe. But it looks more like 2010 than 2008.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 7:10:21 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
The Governor now leads by 15 with independents (yay!!) but is behind 10 with women.

Gotta let him go, ladies (overall.. not here in FR). Obama's proven time and again he's no good for you and no good for the country. And yes, you'll get through this. Break that emotional bond...you can do it.

33 posted on 11/05/2012 7:10:45 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Ras is running a CYA operation at his polling firm. So just the fact that he has it at R 49 O 48 is his version of sticking his neck out and saying Romney is going to win.


34 posted on 11/05/2012 7:10:47 AM PST by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: ScottinVA
) but is behind 10 with women.

If they mean single women and lesbos, I can understand that....no way Obama is winning with married women.

35 posted on 11/05/2012 7:13:29 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: erod

Exactly!!!


36 posted on 11/05/2012 7:13:39 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: erod

MO has been 55R-43D since the summer.

Don’t know if that’s a bellwether predictor. Its been overlooked because every one has assumed its 2008.

If MO is right - it won’t be.


37 posted on 11/05/2012 7:15:35 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: xzins

12% republicans? That’s 1 out of 8. I have not seen any republicans siding with the chair this time around.

Does anyone know what was the percentage of repubs that voted for the chair on ‘08?


38 posted on 11/05/2012 7:17:02 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

With almost every National and State poll giving Obama less than 50% it’s fair to say that RR will pull this out. 52-47 is my bet.


39 posted on 11/05/2012 7:22:38 AM PST by Kahuna
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Forget the polls.

Romney had a great weekend - every thing broke his way, great crowds, voter enthusiasm and the self-assurance of a man destined for great things. The visuals don’t lie.

Obama on the other hand, needed Clinton, drew small crowds, no one seems motivated to vote for him and one has the impression he’s just going through the motions now.

A deadlocked election? I don’t think so - one side had the Big Mo into Tuesday.

I called it after the second debate last month and I’m more sure than ever now Williard Mitt Romney will be our incoming and 45th President Of The United States!


40 posted on 11/05/2012 7:22:45 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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