Tony,
If I had to take a wild and speculative guess (as we have no data points) the Gallup poll will be R:50 O:47
They polled THU, FRI, SAT, SUN
We know from other polls that THU and FRI were great President Obama days and SAT and SUN were still OK polling days for the President
Now, sadly, the conspiratorial part of me feels that Hurricane Sandy gave Gallup a good “out” from their R+6 results.
They can put out a poll like R:49 O:48 and still claim that President Obama had a “bump” and normalize with the other polls
We shall find out in 3 hours
Forget the polls.
Romney had a great weekend - every thing broke his way, great crowds, voter enthusiasm and the self-assurance of a man destined for great things. The visuals don’t lie.
Obama on the other hand, needed Clinton, drew small crowds, no one seems motivated to vote for him and one has the impression he’s just going through the motions now.
A deadlocked election? I don’t think so - one side had the Big Mo into Tuesday.
I called it after the second debate last month and I’m more sure than ever now Williard Mitt Romney will be our incoming and 45th President Of The United States!
Gallup doesn't weight their polls by party affiliation. There were several articles to this effect a couple weeks ago. They did release a "turnout forecast" which showed R+1 (Compared to D+8 actual in 2008). R+6 is way too optimistic. In fact, I think it will actually be around D+2 this year - but still enough to yield a substantial Romney win if he maintains his strong lead with undecideds.
That said, I am a little suspicious about Gallup suspending their polling during Hurricane Sandy. It seems more than a little convenient that they would essentially take a week off from reporting results until the day before the election. Like you said, this would allow them to "normalize" their results with the other polls without having to explain themselves.
If, however, Gallup comes in today with Romney still up 4-6 points - it will make for a very interesting afternoon!