Posted on 11/05/2012 6:39:32 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Monday, November 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.
Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking poll tonight and release the results early Tuesday morning. Later today, we will issue our final swing state polls including Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Since mid-September, after the convention bounces faded, the candidates have generally been within three points of each other on a daily basis. Heading into the first presidential debate, Obama had a slight edge. After that debate, Romney had the advantage. For a few days in late October, Romney reached the 50% level of support and opened a modest lead. But the candidates have been tied or within two points for each other for the past eight days. See daily tracking history
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27
Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68
In other words: R:52 O:46
BOTTOM LINE: The Governor is surging at the right time. Independent numbers are fantastic. VOTE EARLY and VOTE OFTEN tomorrow ;-)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will NOT be available at the link above
Daily RAS ping!
Forget the polls. Come back Wed. and see who’s right
GOTV!
I’m done w/ polling and into VOTING! Going on my gut theory.... Obama can NOT attain his 2008 status nor mojo. Romney is NO McCain. Obama early votes are down GOP up. It will be close but Mitt 51.4 O 48.6 Romney w/ 279 EV
Great analysis. Romney up 15 with Indies is hugely important.
And the idea (in the most important election in our lifetime, when the GOP base’s enthusiasm is through the roof) that Romney will only get 86% of base vote is simply not believable.
Of all the statistics (Indies, Gender, Age), that is one that you can take to the bank. Even McCain got 93% of GOP votes.
Furthermore, if you look at all the polls released in the past 24-36 hours, almost every one shows Gov Romney with a low double digit lead amongst Indies. Indies are breaking hard for the Governor.
Obama cannot win if he lose Indies.
I predict 52-47, Romney.
What is the final result if you re-weight the electorate up to R+1 or R+2, in line with Gallup’s projection?
I note Ras gives Democrats a two point advantage. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I said it before and will say it again:
The Indies seem to be watching the Sandy debacle closer than people thought.. They didn’t have the attention span to follow Benghazi, but once Staten Island turned into the 9th ward, Indies started breaking to Romney in every poll.
I kept waiting for that late break to Mitt from the undecideds...that didn’t happen...instead, they seem to have SPLIT.
That is entirely unrealistic. There's absolutely no way that someone who truly sees him/herself as a republican would be voting for Obama. I might see them voting other or not voting at all, but not for Obama.
That's insane, and it's a crack in Rasmussen's numbers.
The only thing that makes sense would be democrats falsely identifying as republicans, but I've heard of no such campaign whether official or unofficial. And for it to have such an enormous result, it would have had to have had a visible presence.
Finally, what is Rasmussen's current Margin of Error with 3000 LVs in each poll?
Just not possible in this universe. I wonder if some Democrats hear it is Rasmussan, they are purposely lying.
The anecdotal evidence from a Freeper in Warren County OH last night was incredibly exhilarating. He said there was a three hour wait to vote.
Warren is the reddest of red. It went for McCain about 2:1, but absentees were running ahead of that. If we turn out Warren by 3:1, it will be killer.
Raise your hand if you know a Republican voting for Obama lol..
NH,
I agree totally.
My final call is 52-47, although we COULD be surprised by a one point upside
Here’s to all of us!
Cheers!
I don’t think it’ll be that low!
Ras’ bias is showing in D+2 - I’ve asked SE to correct for it in with Gallup’s projection this year’s election will be GOP majority and Ras is assuming GOP voting will be like in 2008.
I think he’s off here.
I can only assume the recent uptick for the POS magic negro is due to the storm. Pathetic.
Still no power for us and thousands here in WV and just got internet back enough to read/post. I would fire every politician in office and every boss at First Energy.
There is not nearly enough line damage here to excuse the power being out for weeks. Inexcusable and urine poor response to this minor storm. Fire them all.
One more thing, a friend of mine who is a lifelong bleeding heart Democrat is voting for a Republican for President for the first time in her life tomorrow.
Every poll except Gallup is D+3 to D+11. Come on, people. There’s a reason why Romney is smiling and Obama is glaring and nasty. One also notices that The Lovely Michelle has been locked in a closet for the past several weeks.
The Gov Christie bump is fading!
What is Rasmussen’s MOE on this poll?
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