This is actually good news believe it or not. Internals show the Governor rising.
He would have been at 50 today but his “Lean Romney” number got rounded down to Zero. This is the first uptick the Governor has had all week. This means that the Sandy bump is fading
Also the bad Gov Romney day on WED fell off. I think THU is also a bad Gov Romney day and tomorrow that will fall off too
Daily RAS Ping!
Also, look at the commentary by Scott (above). He is projecting a D+2 final turnout
Looks like a meeting at the 50 yrd. line and a coin toss is gonna settle this.
YEH! Another tied poll. lol Thanks for your analysis.
48 hours! just 48 hours!
IF Romney loses this, I put 100% of the blame at the feet of Chris Christie.
America is going to choose Obamacare and slavery to government. Game over. The Republic is doomed. Emperor Palpatin is Obamugabe.
It all comes down to whether the number of Americans who are informed, self responsible and love this nation can turn out in greater numbers than the Obama base of parasites, socialists, racists, and braindead.
Free Republic’s Concern Trolls out in force in this morning.
O still has not cracked 50%.
And he’s bleeding in Blue States!
Screw the polls, there isn’t a single one telling the truth, frankly I’m glad they are trying to paint it as a dead heat relying upon hype and drama to keep the MSM energized.
Of which I am ignoring. Making my Bluray player work overtime lately, no live news or shows PERIOD.
I am just not buying Rasmussen’s crosstabs with base. Sorry. And you know I am not some conspiracy guy. I see the data and try to analyze it objectively.
But historically (even John McCain in a horrid GOP year), every GOP candidate gets at least 93% of GOP voters. And historically, the GOP always outperforms Dems with crossovers. Even, again, John McCain did in 2008.
And so with the enthusiasm off the charts, I cannot believe that Romney is only pulling in 87% of Repubs - not with everything on the line.
Here’s the deal. With the base support generally being 90%, every 3 points of base you add to Romney would result in a full point in support, i.e. 90 x.36 = 1.08.
For example if Romney were simply pulling in 90% of GOP he’d be at 50%. If he pulls in 93% as is the historical standard, he is at 51%.
This low GOP support will not stand, I guarantee it. Not looking at the size of the rallies, the enthusiasm online, the early voting, etc. GOP is over-performing in every category. While the Dems are under-performing.
GOTV or it's four more of Obama-Biden malaise.
Vote & drag 'right thinking' people to the polls with you.
Romney lost 5 points among democrats, Obama gained 7. Rasmussen has apparently a sample with Dem at 38-39%. This 12 points swing among democrats means a difference of 0.12*38 = 4.56% or 0.12*39 = 4.68% And that's why Romney is not any longer up by 4 but tie.It will all come down to turnout. Whichever side gets the most people to show up, will win. Actually, the R side will need to be at least 3% ahead in order to overcome vote fraud.
Here's the disconnect in so many of these polls. Either this is a lie or the polls aren't tied.
I'm no math wizard but can do basic arithmetic. I assume Rassmussen can, as well.
Not really sure I understand what’s going on with Ras’s national polls this last week. He’s basically saying that of the undecideds, O is getting ALL of them *plus* R losing a point of support. Historically, this makes no sense.
It also makes no sense from the internals, as well as state polling. Which is wrong? It could very well be a tied race, but plenty of times a tied race doesn’t actually turn out to be that close at all.
Only 87% Repubs going for Romney. Absurd. No way that 13% are going for O or 3rd Party. I can’t imagine that many Repubs out there willing to throw the election to Zero.
SE-
With the concentration over the base support/crossover statistics, I missed the point that Romney is back up to a 9 point lead with Indies.
If that holds, Romney wins rather easily.
Thanks so much for breaking these down, especially over the past few days. What did you see as the percentages to the decimal point w/ leaners?
If this turns out to be a D +2 year, Obama may win. But then, according to CNN, 2008 was a D+2.5 year, and I don’t think there is any way in hell that the country is as pro-Obama this year as it was in 2008.
2004 was a R+1.5 year, and I think that is much more realistic. If anything, I’d guess the figure will be higher this year than in 2004. Gallup agrees, calling it a R+2 year.
I think any poll that shows a significant democrat advantage in turnout is stupid. How gullible do you have to be to think Obama is as popular with democrats now as in 2008?
But we’ll see.
Ras and other pollsters are basically punting this time around. What with early voting, incredibly low response rates, record low Democrat turnout, and so on, this election is going to be very hard for them to handicap. So they’ll peg it at 50-50 as a shot in the dark. Statistically, 50-50 is also the estimate that gives the highest MOE, all else equal. Thus, it is the safest from a reputation standpoint.