Daily RAS Ping!
Also, look at the commentary by Scott (above). He is projecting a D+2 final turnout
Why is he predicting a +2 dem turnout? What was the dem turn out in 2008 on a national level?
TIA!!
We finally have the DEFINITIVE split from Rasmussen
D/R/I: 39/37/24
UNBELIEVABLY Low Independent number
UNBELIEVABLY High Democrat number
Only 87% of Republicans voting for the Governor, as per Rasmussen.
Plug in the EXACT breakdown just with a 95% Republican vote for the Governor and you will get:
R: 51.53 ((37*0.95)+(39*.10)+(52*0.24))
D: 46.88 ((37*0.05)+(39*.89)+(43*0.24))
So, even if I use D+2 and the ONLY change I make is that I expect 95% of Republicans to vote for the Governor, here is the result I get using the D/R/I of 39/37/24
Gov Romney: 52
Pres Obama: 47
That is what I have said all along!!!
I don’t buy the Romney vote among R’s is below 90%. I posted this on another thread by it is relevant here also:
My analysis still shows a total blowout and yes the media will use the margin of error to justify their propaganda on behalf of the Obama campaign.
Looking at the raw data over at:http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:
If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).
If the dems has a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%
If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010)Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.
If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.
The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.
This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.
BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.
Does anyone believe that the turnout for the Dems will match 2008?
I don’t and neither should you.