We finally have the DEFINITIVE split from Rasmussen
D/R/I: 39/37/24
UNBELIEVABLY Low Independent number
UNBELIEVABLY High Democrat number
Only 87% of Republicans voting for the Governor, as per Rasmussen.
Plug in the EXACT breakdown just with a 95% Republican vote for the Governor and you will get:
R: 51.53 ((37*0.95)+(39*.10)+(52*0.24))
D: 46.88 ((37*0.05)+(39*.89)+(43*0.24))
So, even if I use D+2 and the ONLY change I make is that I expect 95% of Republicans to vote for the Governor, here is the result I get using the D/R/I of 39/37/24
Gov Romney: 52
Pres Obama: 47
That is what I have said all along!!!
Thank you Friend!
As I suspected, RAS is playing loose with the numbers.
Thanks for providing the internals, and your perspective.
I agree with your logical results.
That’s encouraging. Do you know what the cross over numbers were like in 2008? I know McCain won the crossover vote and I *believe* had like 92-93% Republican support, no way Romney gets less then that.
ABC WAS PO said Romney was going to get 97% of the GOP vote.
Hi SE
I did not see this post prior to mine re: Base Support.
This is exactly what I was talking about.
No way, no how that Romney only pulls in 87% of Repubs in the most important election in history.
It’s not a sour grapes post. It’s just historically a fact. It’s an important data point.