Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House,Republicans take Senate.

Final 2012 Election Predictions: Romney wins White House, GOP keeps House, and Republicans take Senate. 100% chance that Nate Silver’s career collapses into ruin.

Since today is Saturday before the election and I think voters are mostly committed to what they are going to do next Tuesday, I think it’s time to lock in my personal expectations for what’s going to happen as we conclude the 2012 election season. As of sometime around 9pm CST, Mitt Romney will be declared our 45th President in what will become a commanding lead of 322 to 216 electoral votes. Republicans will hold the House and expand their majority there by a few seats…but I think that will be a gain of around 3+ or so; in thinking about the span of time from 2010 to 2012, I think voters are as-angry or a-little-more-angry than they were at Democrats since the midterm elections so I believe the House will be more or less where it is now and any changes that happen will be to the Republicans’ advantage. The Senate will also fall securely into GOP hands, but I’ll get into those numbers below.

It will be interesting for me to see how close my results come to what actually happens on Tuesday because I 100% believe all of the polls are being manipulated purposefully by pollsters to give Barack Obama a psychological advantage in this election. I directly accuse almost everyone involved in polling of rolling the dice with their reputations because these people honestly want to do anything they can to allow Barack Obama an advantage…and so they are willing to risk the destruction of their reputations to push him over the finish line if they can. Since this is the first time in American political history when they’ve ever done anything like this, I think that a lot of people have not picked up on the fact that there is not a single reputable polling outfit left. On top of that, I also believe that a great number of Americans out there are purposefully lying to pollsters to make them look bad on November 6th…as punishment to the national media for being such a Ministry of Truth for the last four years and churning out nonstop pro-Obama propaganda.

Because I believe the talking heads will melt on the screen come Election Night because none of the results coming in will match the polls the Left relied on for their mental health in the last days of this campaign, I intend to watch MSNBC all day next Tuesday because I want to document in real time the implosion of the Ministry of Truth. This is the only time in my life that I will ever say this, so mark it in the history books, but I encourage all of you to watch MSNBC if you can on November 6th because decades from now you will want to describe to your progeny how unhinged the Left became on live tee-vee as the Obama Regime came to an abrupt end. This would be like you being able to tell someone in the future that you were there when Mount Vesuvius erupted and leveled Pompeii…and you had time-traveled back to sit in a lounge chair and sip chianti while you watched it all happen LIVE.

Before I get into the breakdown of what I think is going to happen I want to talk about why my prediction is so different from what you are probably seeing on other conservative sites (and is, of course, the polar opposite of what Nate Silver is saying). Frankly, I’ve devoted the last five years of my life to American politics and it has been quite and education. In that time, I’ve observed three constants in play during the 2008, 2010, and 2012 elections that I think need to be considered when scrying into the future to determine what’s going to happen in a race:

(1) Almost everything the media tells you is a lie designed to help Democrats and there really is a de facto Ministry of Truth that serves the Left on the tee-vee, over the radio, and in newspapers.

(2) Conservative websites are pessimistic places run by straight males who are deathly afraid of being mocked if they’re wrong about predicting a Republican win…but are never concerned about being called out for saying that a Republican will lose (since conservatives are so happy the Republican wins in those instances that euphoria-induced amnesia means there’s no downside for a conservative writer to lowball a prediction). I think this is crucial in the 2012 race because I still see conservative writers freaking out their readerships by claiming “Obama’s going to win Ohio!” when that, to me, would be like saying “Obama’s going to lose Massachusetts!”. Neither of those things are going to happen, but it carries almost no negative consequence for a conservative writer to scare his readers by insisting Romney will lose Ohio…since when Romney wins his readers will be too thrilled by the win to ever remember how much that guy freaked them out in the lead up to the election. Conservatives are very kind and forgiving people by nature…and so conservative writers play with their emotions to generate web traffic, counting on there never being any professional consequences for doing this. I really hope you’ve learned some lessons from all the “fear porn” churned out this election at various conservative sites and will ask questions starting November 7th about why any of these guys decided to freak you out over Ohio needlessly.

(3) The Tea Party is real, it exists, it never went anywhere, and is more fired up than ever. This is something that almost no one writes about because Tea Party Americans are not holding rallies every day anymore…because they are too busy doing actual work behind the scenes to win this election. The Ministry of Truth (Minitru, for short) tried pretending the Tea Party was just an astroturf, manufactured outfit like Occupy Wall Street was for Democrats…but they are dead wrong. The purpose of the Tea Party rallies was to recruit Tea Party Americans into action. Once Tea Party groups were staffed up, they began working hard and no longer needed recruitment drives. This is how a real political movement operates…and how results are won. All predictions that Minitru makes of an Obama win or a close election are based on the Tea Party having disappeared and of Americans actually liking Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness.

(4) The biggest reason Obama won in 2008 was because Americans got sucked up into the biggest fad ever to hit the country in many years. I am talking about a fad along the lines of the Cabbage Patch Kids, pet rocks, neon friendship bracelets, McRibs, New Kids on the Block, Beanie Babies, etc. Combine the fact that Americans wanted to be part of “hopeychange” with the fact that many saw Barack Obama as the sort of “magical black man” character that Will Smith always plays in movies and you will understand that Obama won election because a great many white people thought he was the “magical black man” who’d come to save them (like in the movies!) and they wanted to be part of “making history” when that happened (alongside all others sucked into the fad). Minitru keeps trying to believe that instead of all this emotion that Americans actually decided with their thinking brains that they wanted to take the country to the Left and transform it into something radically different than has existed for the last 235-odd years. That’s madness. 2008 was not a “transformational election” but a massive fad that hit the country like a hurricane…and for the last four years we’ve been cleaning up the damages. Every poll, news article, or analysis of this election is flawed because it’s based on the conceit that voters choice Obama because they liked what he would do to the country…instead of the reality that people had no clue what Obama would really do and instead just wanted the magical black man that the media loved so much to have a chance to dazzle them. When Obama not only failed to dazzle, but actively harmed the country, Americans decided he had to go.

Though Mitt Romney will win this election (decidedly…and it won’t even be close) on November 6th, 2012 I think that Barack Obama actually lost his bid for reelection on May 21st, 2010 — which was the day that Nancy Pelosi rammed Obamacare through the House (without any Democrats even reading the bill) over the objections of Americans who resented Democrats abusing their power in this way. An argument could be made that Obama actually lost reelection on December 24th, 2009 because that’s the day the Senate rammed Obamacare through in a partisan vote with no Democrat Senators ever reading the bill either…but I’m going with the House vote date for when Obama lost because few paid much attention to the Senate’s Christmas Eve machinations since Democrats timed the vote to happen during the holidays so they could get away with it.

That House vote, however, seared Obamacare into people’s minds and made Americans realize the only way to get rid of it was to get rid of Obama the first chance they had. The 2010 elections were, thus, a warmup…and the first opportunity that Americans had to boot Obama’s allies from power. I maintain to this day that Harry Reid would have lost his Senate seat if Sharon Angle had been a better candidate against him…but this only proves that voters WANT to get rid of bad Democrats but require a decent Republican alternative to do so.

Clearly, Mitt Romney has proven to be an alternative to Barack Obama that Americans view as a remedy to everything they haven’t liked in the last few years. Minitru keeps telling you that “it’s almost impossible to unseat an incumbent!” but in reality it’s that an incumbent president only loses reelection when the challenger presents himself as a stark and acceptable REMEDY to the incumbent…and that’s the very definition of Mitt Romney.

Just so we are clear, I mocked Mitt Romney for four years and tried everything I could to stop him from being the Republican nominee…and in all that time I never found a line of attack on the guy that would stick. I also never discovered any dirt on the man…and boy did I try. I never wrote about all the many hours I wasted chasing leads in attempts to find anything despicable the man has ever done…because I turned up empty every time. Mitt Romney is a great guy and will make an excellent president. Americans who are so fatigued with having an enigma like Obama whose past is cloaked in surreal mysteries will be overjoyed to have in office a man with nothing to hide and no skeletons in his closet. I dare say that Mitt Romney might just be the most decent human begin to ever become president…with the unique qualifications to lead the country out of an economic depression and back towards solvency. The guy who turned around the Olympics and saved Salt Lake will do the same thing to the country from Washington…and I look forward to the day when I can shake his hand and thank him for agreeing to serve and save the day.

I don’t think the polls or other conservative writers are picking up on just how exhausted Americans are with the nonstop outrages and bizarre mysteries of Barack Obama and the Leftist gang of Chicago thugs who went to Washington with him back in 2008. On a very personal note, the way I feel right now is EXACTLY the way I felt when I was in a bad relationship with a really terrible guy named Harvey and I had finally made the decision to break us up and move on with my life. I wanted the weirdness to end. I was sick of wondering what stupid or crazy thing would happen tomorrow. It was time to remove all of Harvey’s awful relatives and terrible friends from my orbit. I just reached the point where I wanted Harvey out of my life so that I could move on.

I think that nationwide Americans are desperate to breakup with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is our valiant rebound guy who we can enthusiastically rush towards.

(A) Confirmed Leftists whose only gripe is that they wish Obama had done more Leftist things in his term

(B) People who just like having a black president because they vote on skin color

I don’t think A+B+C is enough for a Democrat to win a national election, ever.

If it was, then Nancy Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House and the 2010 midterms would have looked exactly like the 2008 election. No matter how much Minitru will try to claim this, the United States is not a Leftist country. It is a center-right country and most states do not default-vote Democrat.

On Tuesday, you will see the Democrats’ safe states shrink to the smallest number since Ronald Reagan, largely because Mitt Romney appeals to Midwesterners very much like Reagan (perhaps even more so because Romney was a businessman, not an actor, so no one is worried about Romney being able to handle the job the way some were of sending a matinee idol to the White House in 1980). The only “safe” states for Democrats this year are: Hawaii, California, Washington, Illinois, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and the Capital (since DC is not a state but it gets electoral votes equal to those given to the lowest-represented state in the country).

This is a massive pendulum swing from 2008, when Republicans saw their own “safe states” reduced and threatened by the Obama fad.

Now that the fad has been extinguished, the pendulum has sliced through the Democrats’ firewall and is obliterating them in states that were normally viewed as “safe”. While I’m predicting that Mitt Romney will win 322 electoral votes, that number could actually be even higher because I think this could be a tidal wave for Republicans that has been building since 2009 when the Tea Party first formed in opposition to Obamacare and the Left’s agenda after Obama took office. I think that 2012 is the year that Democrats actually have to be afraid of losing Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Michigan…which would be like Republicans having to worry about losing Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, or Georgia. This is a BIG DEAL that it’s even in the realm of possibility that Oregon, Minnesota, New Jersey, or Michigan could be swing states. Never in my life did I think that would happen.

This is what finally made me realize that, yes, Mitt Romney will win Pennsylvania…a state that has teased Republicans for years. But if Pennsylvania is really a swing state and is not guaranteed to fall to Democrats every election like California or New York, then 2012 is the year that Republicans win it. If not, then we can never call Pennsylvania a swing state again and must accept it is permanently lost to the Left because of Philadelphia’s control over the state. But, since I don’t believe Pennsylvania is like California or New York…and that it has to vote for a Republican sometime…I think that Mitt Romney is probably the only Republican it would ever vote for. Barack Obama’s War on Coal and his 2008 remarks calling Pennsylvanians “bitter and clinging Midwesterners” might have been enough of a push to put Romney over the top.

Ohio is a no-brainer and is not even a swing state; it’s going for Romney because it gave Obama a chance in 2008 and he blew it. Ohioans are loving and decent people who are fair and will give an opportunity to anyone…but they will fire someone who does not deliver the goods he promised. Such is Obama’s fate in Ohio.

I gave New Mexico to Obama because I looked back on past elections and have seen that more often then not this state votes Democrat, so it might be a sort of Delaware of the west. Since Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island aren’t leaving the Democrats’ column this year neither is their cousin out west. I have to admit I have never been to New Mexico and know little about life in the state; as much as I like Governor Susana Martinez and hoped she’d be able to carry the state for Romney I just don’t see evidence that her personal charm can overcome New Mexico’s tendency to be the “Delaware of the West”.

I do think Democrats lose Nevada though, because I don’t see how a state that depends so much on Las Vegas to survive can reelect the man who crippled the tourism industry in Vegas back in 2009. I enjoy reading columns by Steve Wynn, the casino magnate, and he talks about the volcanic anger towards Obama in Nevada. Minitru is putting Nevada in Obama’s column just because Harry Reid won reelection in 2010…but as noted above, read would have lost running against someone other than Sharon Angle. If you remember the focus group that Frank Luntz ran in Nevada the night of the second presidential debate you’d remember how angry people were there at Obama. How on Earth do they reelect him?

Here in Illinois, Obama’s going to win the state by the smallest margin ever for a Democrat; he’s actually going to come incredibly close to losing Illinois because enthusiasm for him is so low in Chicago’s Cook County. Democrats only win the state because they pull big numbers from Chicagoland. But I think in the end Romney will come up short in Illinois…but it will be fun to watch Democrats sweat here a little.

Final Result for the Electoral College: 322 Romney to 216 for Obama (but it could actually end up being as high as 337 Romney to 201 Obama if Minnesota and New Mexico surprise us).

For the House and Senate races, the logic I am operating under is that there are few instances where vote-splitting will be happening AGAINST Mitt Romney…so I am assuming that the vast majority of people heading into voting booths will be voting for both Mitt Romney and the Republican running down ticket from him for the other races in that state. There will be some exceptions to this…and in Massachusetts I believe that Scott Brown will win his Senate race because many people will vote for him for Senate but will vote for Obama for president (because Elizabeth Warren is a much worse candidate than Martha Coakley was so I can’t understand how she’d win while Coakley lost when Brown has done nothing to alienate his 2010 voters and Coakley has done little to steal those people away from Brown).

I think that every state that Romney wins will also push the Republican to the win in that Senate race too. Therefore, I think the Senate races will look like this:

Florida = Republican surprise win (I’m basing this on something oddball, and it’s that a lot of voters think that “Connie Mack” is a woman…it’s actually a man named “Cornelius Harvey LaFontaine Beardsley Hiperion McGillicuddy XVII, or something bizarre like that; so he calls himself “Connie Mack”, which makes people think he’s “that actress that used to be on Hotel in the 80s, but now she got married”. Florida is going to go to Romney and I wonder if Floridians are big vote-splitters and will back Romney for President but the Democrat for the Senate. Why would the do that? ”Connie Mack” sounds like a nice lady so why not vote for “her” with Mitt Romney? You might laugh, but I think this will really happen but no one wants to talk about it because it’s so ridiculous. The reason I believe this is happening is because I have five different friends who live in Florida but who don’t have tee-vee and all of them think “Connie Mack” is a woman. They only see “Connie Mack” written in a paper and don’t see a picture, so they assume it is a woman. I think this helps pick up the seat).

Indiana = Republican win (that garbage about abortion is not a big enough deal to vote split no matter what Minitru says)

Missouri = Republican surprise win (because I don’t know how someone could vote for Romney and then agree to keep on ObamaClaire)

Ohio = Republican surprise win (because I don’t see Republicans vote splitting…and see no reason why Mandel would not get votes from the Romney voters in Ohio)

Pennsylvania = Republican surprise win (because Smith rides Romney’s coattails here and there’s no vote-splitting against him)

Virginia = Republican surprise win (I think people have forgiven Allen for the macaca stuff 6 years ago and see no reason to vote split against him in a state Romney will win)

Wisconsin = Republican surprise win (because I think Romney/Ryan win Wisconsin and with it the Senate seat too)

Hawaii = Republican SUPER SURPRISE win (because it’s so strange to think that Linda Lingle beat Lazy Mazie for the Governor’s race a few years ago…so why would Mazie win the Senate race this year? I think Hawaiians are vote-splitters and will vote for Obama but elect Lingle; of all these Senate races this is the one I am most on the limb with and it’s all based on the Lingle vs. Lazy Mazie gubernatorial race and the fact that Hawaiians have rejected Mazie’s attempts at higher office before, so why go with her now?). I have an 80% chance of being wrong on this Hawaii race…but I just see nothing in Lazy Mazie to make me think this latest race between her and Lingle will go differently than the last one.

Maine = Democrat pickup (though Olympia Snow was always a Democrat with an (R) after her name)

New Jersey = Democrat (because that prostitution scandal doesn’t affect the votes in Jersey for Menendez)

New Mexico = Democrat, only because I think Obama will win the state so why would there be vote splitting here?

West Virginia = Democrat, because I think West Virginians vote-split all the time and have a habit of making bad choices with Senators (See: Byrd, Robert K.K.K.)

That makes it 15 wins for Republicans by may count, with just 6 wins for Democrats…for a net of 9for the GOP.

I think the low end of things would be about a net of 4 or 5 for the Republicans on Tuesday, which provides for some vote-splitting in states that Romney wins but the Republican running for Senate loses for some reason. But I do believe that Republicans will control of the White House, the Senate and the House.

I’m not going to do a rundown on House numbers because I have not had time to follow all of those races closely. I do think that Romney adds seats in states that he wins and that people voting for Romney in general will vote straight down ticket as well…which could lead to a lot of surprises.

I really think Debbie Wasserman Schultz loses her seat in Congress because of how poorly she’s looked in everything she’s done in the high profile position Democrats gave her. She’s too affiliated with Obama not to lose, because I can’t imagine people voting for Romney in Florida and then vote-splitting to vote for DWS too.

Nancy Pelosi will be ousted as Minority Leader in the next Congress and will retire some time in early 2013. A special election will have to be held to replace her. Pelosi is not going to spend her last years as a former Speaker who has no power and is just another member of the herd. So expect her to be moving back to San Francisco for good around the same time the Obamas are moving to Hawaii.

I do believe this is a giant wave election for Republicans and that Minitru and even conservative writers are missing that fact.

There is just no enthusiasm for Obama or Democrats…and people are tired of all the bizarre things that have happened in the last four years. I think Benghazi is a story that will only be understood in retrospect because most Americans realize Democrats are lying about what really happened there, even if they don’t understand what went down. The White House is clearly lying and Minitru is helping the White House lie…and I am surprised every day by people who know little about the news or politics who tell me “something is fishy about all that Libya stuff and Obama is lying”. This has made Democrats I know not want to bother to go vote…and it’s fired up the independents and Republicans I know to race out to vote against Obama.

We’ve never had an election where the following three things have happened before (so I think Election Night is going to be just madness):

* The Left has been assured by Nate Silver that there is an 80% chance of Obama winning so they are not mentally prepared to see a map where Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in Romney’s hands. Expect epic freakouts on MSNBC over this. And then never expect to hear from Nate Silver ever again. He will need to go into hiding like Salman Rushdie. I hope he is enjoying his last three days as a mini-celebrity.

* A great many conservative writers know Romney will win but are using the last few days before the election to terrify their readers to drive up their web traffic through fear porn. They THINK that people will be so happy that Romney wins and Republicans take the Senate that people will just forget how much they were scared before the election. I hope there are professional consequences for anyone who pushed this fear porn…but since Republicans are amnesiacs most of the time, I doubt there will be. Which is a shame, because anyone who pushed fear porn hurt a lot of good people who got scared and upset for no reason just so a few sites could make extra money by driving up their web traffic through shouts of “SHARK!” when there were no sharks in the bathtub to be scared of.

* The Ministry of Truth completely lied to the American people and didn’t care about the damage it would do to its reputation. They went all-in and broadcasted from an alternate, fictional universe in this race. What happens to them next?

I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you out there who have been providing me with consistent ground reports and anecdotal intel for the last several months, because your reporting from the ground shaped my understanding of this race and led me to my conclusions. We’ll see who’s right on November 6th, but everything I have seen, heard, and read from real people directly contradicts what all the “experts” say…so I think my projection will be closer to reality than any of the Eeyores or fear porn peddlers out there.

I also want to thank everyone who has been letting me know about the latest fear porn stories and shouts of “SHARK! that they see posted online. It’s so helpful to know who is spreading this fear porn and what they are saying. I tried to use this essay to counter most of it, but if I missed anything please chime in below and tell me and I will address it in the follow up tomorrow. There is no reason to be afraid, because we are going to win BIG.

Nate Silver, on the other hand, might be applying to Arby’s soon because that prediction model of his is cuckoo and the Democrats who buy his fairytale are the ones that need to be afraid of what’s to come on November 6th.

Go ahead and tell me what you really think. Because the risk in putting a projection/prediction together is that after Election Night nasty trolls will want to rip me apart no matter what, since I’m human and none of us can be exactly right on anything. But I think I’m picking up on trends that others are missing…and I also think that things are going to roll our way this time, because this is the year that will happen (if it’s ever to happen at all).

On Election Day, I’m going to camp out in front of a live stream of MSNBC and do rolling historical coverage of the results and what the MSNBC talking heads in particular are saying. I think I’m going to start at about 10am on the 6th and will go through the late evening after Romney wins covering everything that’s being said. I am going to get a honey baked ham for Justin and myself and will be making some other treats that remind me of Wisconsin, Michigan, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Utah. I think it’s just going to be Justin and myself and maybe a few other friends, but I hope you will join us here on HB from time to time throughout the day to see how close our predictions come to reality.

I think I will be much more right than wrong, though…and I think I’ve called more than a few things that will be “surprises” to everyone else.

(1) Almost everything the media tells you is a lie designed to help Democrats and there really is a de facto Ministry of Truth that serves the Left on the tee-vee, over the radio, and in newspapers.

I define a "lie" as the knowing telling of an untruth with intent to deceive. Therefore, the Bush administration's position on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq was not a lie because the administration actually believed that these weapons existed and their intention was not to deceive but to enlighten the public. By this definition I think that most of the media does not lie although they repeat uncritically lies crafted by others, especially the Obama administration. The capacity of the human mind to rationalize into reality that which it wants to be real is almost infinite. This indicts the media as hypocrites but not always as liars. I think many of the media are happy not to examine deeply into the internals of these polls and put them on the air while rationalizing that they are only presenting the facts as they actually are out there, which is true as far as it goes.

I do believe that the administration itself, and its campaign are engaging in "lies" and they no doubt have compatriots in the media and in the polling organizations that believe what Alinsky taught, that there is no morality in our current political system, it is so corrupt, so capitalist, that it is illegitimate and therefore no duty of truth is owed to it or to the people whom it would deceive. They will revert to the civil rights struggle or to Watergate to rationalize their deceptions in a greater more moral cause.

I do not bring up these distinctions up merely to cavil but to provide a frame of understanding of how the media and the whole liberal establishment works. If Mitt Romney wins in a landslide as this article is predicting, one would expect the liberal media to sustain an epiphany and mend its ways. After all, nothing could be clearer than arithmetic and all of the liberal media polls will have been proved to be bogus by the numbers for all to see. But we both know that nothing of the kind will occur. The media will not change its ways, it certainly will not repent, it will merely change the subject. Need we apply the same analysis to academia?

Leftists are not leftists because of logic they are leftists because of the emotional fulfillment they receive by reinforcement from the cult.

My experience, especially here on free Republic, is entirely to the contrary.

(3)…All predictions that Minitru makes of an Obama win or a close election are based on the Tea Party having disappeared and of Americans actually liking Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness.

The author conflates two propositions. The question is not whether the Tea Party has disappeared, the question is whether the Tea Party retains its intensity. This also applies, if one is intellectually honest, to the second proposition, to wit, that these media predictions are predicated on the assumption that "Americans actually like (ING) Obama more in 2012 than they did in 2008, which is madness." I agree if that is the assumption it is madness. But Axelrod is not arguing that rather he is saying that there is enough of 2008 left in the electorate to push Obama over the line. If we are honest with ourselves, we have to acknowledge that that is the issue. Yes, there are some polls which credit the Democrats with a higher intensity than 5 to 7% of 2008, and that is obviously "madness." But what about those polls like Rasmussen which credit the Democrats only +2%? Rasmussen comes up with a tie or a loss for Romney in some of the swing states.

Is not that the real danger? Do we answer this ultimate question by setting up a strawman as quoted above so we can knock it down? How does that advance our understanding?

It seems to me the relevant data to this question comes to us, courtesy of Dick Morris, from Gallup with their massive polls showing a substantial lead for the Republicans over the Democrats. This is not a strawman, this is hard data and we are entitled to rely on it. But, although I am persuaded, I am not ignorant of the fact that Rasmussen has gone +2% the wrong way and I do not know why.

(4)2008 was not a “transformational election” but a massive fad that hit the country like a hurricane…and for the last four years we’ve been cleaning up the damages. Every poll, news article, or analysis of this election is flawed because it’s based on the conceit that voters choice Obama because they liked what he would do to the country…

I have written many posts on Barack Obama as the empty suit 2008, quoting an echoing the observations of Shelby Steele who described the dynamic of white guilt operating to draw votes to the "white" Negro. That could fairly be described as a "fad" election but that is not to say that the reason Romney will win this time is because we are center-right country. The demographics of the United States are rolling inexorably against us. If we win this election it will not be because America is a center-right country but because Obama clumsily overreached. The author tacitly adopts this position when he says that the 2012 election was lost for Obama on the two occasions in which the two houses of Congress passed Obama care. This is but another description of overreach.

But just as we should inform ourselves about how the media and academia rationalize the grotesqueries of the Democrat party, we should also inform ourselves about the demographic tsunami which is about to engulf the Republican Party. If the Republicans cannot check immigration from cultures which do not share our language, our acceptance of the free market, our belief in the rule of law, our relative absence of cynicism toward democratic government, there will be no hope of saving the Republic in years to come. If the Republicans cannot reform the education process to check the process of indoctrination being done to our kids by the National Education Association and by the Marxist in our universities (do not forget community colleges), there is no hope of saving the Republic from the left in years to come.

Barak Obama was not so much an aberration in his election of 2008 but in his governance. The scary thing is that the electorate was not only vulnerable to the siren of an empty suit but actively sought it out and spurned any contrary opinion. There is very little in the election of 2008 upon which to congratulate the citizens of America, to the contrary, it exposed an appalling cupidity and shallowness. It is validated the effectiveness of the rationalizations.

It is utter folly to regard the election 2008 as an aberration, it is all too much an expression of who we really are.

For the record, I believe the author is right, we will win Ohio and Wisconsin for the reasons he states and because our ground game in both places should be first-class. Clearly our ground game in Wisconsin is a proven winner.

I am more skeptical about Pennsylvania not so much because of the history of Pennsylvania leaving us at the altar but because the polls are not well known. I suspect the Susquehanna is more to be relied upon than the national polls, but I am not sure.

I stay with my original conception of the race. Romney wins New Hampshire and that means Obama is on the defensive everywhere. Obama must then sweep the board winning all of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and one of Iowa or Nevada. That means that Obama is almost sure to lose one of these states and I think he is certainly going to lose Ohio and Wisconsin. When we have tight polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota one begins to think they reveal a trend if not a wave. I want to believe this because this is what I predicted some months ago, a break toward Romney at the end similar to the Reagan victory. But since I want this, I am suspicious of my own judgment.

I repeat my observation that this election is sui generis because of the overreach of Obama and does not tell us that America is a center-right country.

Although I agree with the author's observation that Republican tickets are unlikely to be split against Republican Senatorial candidates, I think the author nevertheless is too optimistic by perhaps three or four in his count of 10. I think we have a very good chance Missouri because of the ticket splitting argument. I think we are in trouble and New Mexico because there will be no reason to split, as the author says. Pennsylvania depends on the top of the ticket as does Ohio. Scott Brown should win in Massachusetts because he is running against a mountebank but since when do leftists (especially in Massachusetts) care whether their candidates are frauds? Just as Senator Menendez of New Jersey. I think Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin can win on his own and on his record. George Allen has, I believe, the edge in Virginia and I do not see Virginia going for Obama so George Allen benefits from the wave.

Of course the media cares about its reputation and to the degree that it is in knowingly risking its reputation, it regards itself as rendering a patriotic service. " What happens to them next?" Nothing, they go on exactly as before. And before they succeeded in selling a mountebank to the electorate in 2008 who ran on no principled platform. It was demagoguery of the uplifting sort as opposed to the negative demagoguery of this campaign. He ran not against his opponent but against the record of the preceding president. It is instructive to understand why he could succeed by doing that. In the last four years of his presidency, George Bush abdicated the bully pulpit to the media. Represented metaphorically by Hurricane Katrina, George Bush became the focus of all evil as he simply declined to fight his corner. The media lynched George Bush and he submitted to it so long as he could pursue his policy in Iraq and hold the line on increased taxes. By the time Barack Obama intruded himself fully formed out of nothing onto the consciousness of the electorate, it was a matter of common consensus the George Bush and failed, just look at Katrina.

After Romney takes office, we can expect much the same treatment from the media. The difference must be an aggressive fight back campaign conducted by the Romney administration. Romney has demonstrated that he can be an extremely effective counterpuncher. But recall, there was a time this summer when he seemed to be playing rope-a-dope. If he does that after he takes office it could be fatal. The growth in George Romney since the beginning of the campaign in the primaries through the debates with Obama and culminating with his performance recently on the stump, is stunning. By all outward appearances this man has the stuff from which presidents are made. This assessment is an imponderable but one that cannot be dismissed from our calculations about Tuesday's results.

A few prayers for the Republic and for Romney would not be out of order. I believe they will be repeated as prayers of thanksgiving on Wednesday.

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