Posted on 11/02/2012 4:40:55 PM PDT by montag813
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
How come Morris does not mention Benghazi?
Unemployment rose today and no one was willing to say it loudly, not even Free Republic...which amazes me.
Obama continues to stall on Benghazi, where heroes were abandoned and died.
The economy sputters from ObamaCare, from low profits, from unemployment, from uncertainty, and from good, old-fashioned fear.
Who is there to tell those stories the last few days?
Unless it’s Romney in ads, there is no other way to get that across between now and Monday night to swing voters.
This is why Romney’s been given all that money.
Pray that he’s spending like crazy, and just being honest, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado will win it for him.
29+13+18+9=69+206=275
everytime the Boy Wonder is given an opportunity to act like a grownup - he fails miserably.
This is no different
To hell with Morris, I’m going with Barone...
I don’t think Obama’s “Mutt & Jeff” photos with belligerant slob Christie will hurt Mitt at all by next Tuesday. They are two of the most repulsive human beings in American politics, I don’t think either one of them can be much help to the other as far as popularity. That goes for Bloomberg too.
Same here.
Screw you Morris... Really because crispy creme gets up there with Obama it will cause that many people to change their vote? I don’t believe it. On the other hand Cristie is toast for the future if he doesn’t turn on BHO this weekend for not walking his talk.
I don’t believe for one instant that there’s a single voter in Ohio or Colorado or Pennsylvania that gives a tinkers damn what some fat slob governor of New Jersey has to say.
I found Christie to be an interesting, loud-mouth Northeastern Republican before this week. I would not have wanted him for our nominee, but I liked his brashness in a way.
After his performance this week with Barry I find him a detestable fellow. His mouth engages before he THINKS and he REACTS before taking a minute to ponder the impact his words will have.
What Joshua said...ditto. When I want someone’s intelligent opinion, it is not Morris I look to.
Well said Montag...
CC is a smarmy guy, gets off some good lines but...
HEY COULTER - What’s up with Christie? HUH??
I think a pattern had developed.
If the American people are THAT stupid to vote for Obama because he was being nice nice with Christie then this country is more far gone then I even imagined
Rasmussen has the race tied today. A tie for the first time in ...weeks. Something happened.
Yes there has been minor slippage in some polls. Morris is probably right that momentum stalled due to the hurricane. But polls probably would've "tightened" anyway, just before the election. They always do.
Voter intensity is key. Our side has never lost its intensity! On the other hand, does anyone really believe voters are going to get fired up over Obama NOW ... just because he did a "presidential" photo-op with Christie* and a few hurricane victims (who, by the way, are still suffering terribly, despite Obama's waving his magic wand).
Obama may well find his exploitation of Sandy backfiring over the weekend.
*Oh and speaking of Christie: I come from the place in NJ where Christie got his political start. He was elected to the office of County Freeholder --then booted in the next election because he was such a jerk. President Bush then appointed the failed Freeholder Christie to the post of US attorney. This gave Christie lots of face time on TV, and a chance to look tough. But watch out. Christie is inconsistent in his character, and he is no constitutional conservative.
He just listens to the same radio station as every other human being on Earth: WII-FM.
THe problem as defined is: Obama seems to be gaining just as the weekend starts.
That’s a bad omen, we can wake up Monday morning to very bad numbers for Romney.
I personally believe Romney blows Obama out, but they keep giving me nagging doubts. I don’t blame Christie for anything as I see no motivation for him to do so other than for his constituents in NJ, and cannot believe he thinks he has a shot at 2016. He would if he came around and became physically fit during this election cycle but even if he made it 2013’s New Years resolution he won’t be a viable candidate in 2016.
I stand by my prediciton, Obama loses all but 1 swing state and looses a surprise “safe” blue state.
A few days of the Incompetent Kenyan talking about a hurricane won’t undo 4 years worth of unemployment stats.
Besides, the “Sandy story” has yet to fully play out - there’s still 4 days to go. Who says there won’t be some story about Bammy enjoying a deluxe champagne dinner or NBA game while the public suffers? THAT could change the ratio 5% overnight. There’s a million things that could happen.
Let the chips fall where they may.
The polling has moved beyond when Dick wrote this. How about this poll... is it bad?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2953980/posts
WaPo ABC Tracker: R49/O48 (D+3)
WaPo ^ | 11/2 | WaPo
Posted on Friday, November 02, 2012 4:18:11 PM by tatown
R49/O48
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
________________________________________
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2012, among a random national sample of 2,131 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results among the sample of 1,535 likely voters have a margin of error of three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
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