Posted on 11/02/2012 12:26:41 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
In my previous posts I laid out why and how I think Mitt Romney positioned himself to win Ohio. He provided voters with a clear rational for why he was running, reassured them that voting for him was not a risk, and — with help from President Obama — unified the conservative base without having to give up appeals to the center...I don’t have the chops of Josh Jordan, Sean Trende, or Dan McLaughlin, so I won’t attempt to repeat their careful analysis of the polling and its history. But they all agree it comes down to a basic question. Do you believe Democratic turnout will match or exceed 2008?
If you think it will, it seems likely that the president will eke out a victory by winning Ohio and other key states. If you think turnout is more likely to land somewhere between 2008 (D+5) and 2010 (R+4) then Romney is likely to win Ohio and the presidency.
I have not heard any compelling argument for Democratic turnout to match let along exceed 2008. Bush fatigue, Obama as the light bringer, the first black president, McCain’s bizarre suspension of his campaign — all of the momentum and excitement was on the side of the Democrats in 2008.
This year we have a still-stagnant economy, foreign policy in flames, deeply unpopular Obamacare, religious leaders furious at the president, Obama abandoning the center and no longer viewed as the political messiah he was thought to be, plus a Republican candidate who has plenty of money, a unified party, and a high-tech and engaged ground game.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
says that Ohio is an R+1 state. That state does not register voters by party, so that's not whee the R+1 comes from. However, if R+1 is true, then either the R turnout rate will have to be less than the D turnout rate to get to some kind of D+whatever. Or:
Indies will have to break just a little in favor of Bonzo. Which, says Rasmussen, they are. And not by a little.
“clear rational”
Big assumption here, that the electorate acts rationally. If this were the case Obama should never have been elected in the first place and if voters are responding to “clear rational” arguments, Romney should be up by 10 points in the national polls. No, we have a vast section of the electorate that is either uninformed or indoctrinated or vote their special interests. How else does one explain the large gender gap, that voters under 30 are going for Obama, that gays and lesbians vote their sexual orientation, blacks vote their skin color, and Hispanics are mostly one issue voters, and then the union (read SEIU) voters. Sadly, no amount of rationality will penetrate these numbskulls.
This post touches on something that is true, and oddly so. The standard playbook would be for a candidate to (pretend to) run to the center before the election. Obama actually seems to have moved LEFT fromthe convention and after. The “War on Women” meme, and more recently whining about Romney defunding PP (would that it be so!!). This stuff plays in Westchester County and Evanston, IL. It doesn’t play in Bridgeville, PA or Bridgeton, MO.
I keep being amazed by stupid and clueless people who worship the Ras OH poll and never do the slightlest critical thinking.
The data in that poll is GIGO. There is nothing about it that matches reality on the ground or people’s voting behavior. There is no partisan breakdown and no data on how people actually voted. Or for whom they will vote.
Does Scott Rasmussen know for sure that the race in OH is really tied? NO! If he uses the 2008 turnout model, then I would say Romney is comfortably ahead. Its not a campaign that looks like it might lose!
Some Freepers don’t want to win! Winning is a matter of attitude. We need to get a grip and remember every one else has a vested interest that isn’t ours. I see no evidence that Obama has ANY momentum or that people have the kind of enthusiasm they had for him in 2008.
Bottom line: in the Ras OH poll, O has not broken to 50%. That is all that really matters.
I have 4 family members in OH. 2 are broken glass dems, and one will vote for Romney. One does not vote.
The amount of white, liberal, brain dead Obama voters is astounding.
If O wins, this country will be gutted and destroyed. I am simply amazed that Obama has a handful of supporters left.
OH and PA. I know their urban centers are their undoing, but my God in heaven help us all what is wrong their voters???
I am not concerned at all. 53-47 and 330+ EV’s for Mitt, the polls be damned. Its all about turnout. If turnout actually is what the polls are based on, then of course Mitt is in trouble. But who in the right mind, considering 2010 turnout, and considering that things are even worse now, believes that we are going to have a 2008 turnout? One would have to be far more delusional to believe that than to believe Mitt will win by a large margin.
We will know for sure next tuesday. IMO, it will be more bearable for Sodom and Gomorrah on the day of judgment than to be a concern troll on that day.
for later
Something is amuck with that break to zero by the indy’s. Either they have been lying all along or the luck of the draw just worked against Romney. I just don’t see it shifting that much in a few days with all that is going on.
I don’t wish to be pollyanna though, the lack of Romney and Ryan visits to Ohio seems to indicate they have given up there so their internals may parot that move. FWIW, Ryan was here in Northeast Florida on Monday speeking at a county rally which historically will be at least 65% R. I could not figure out why not spend that day in either Ohio or Wisconsin where they need the votes more than from here where he was preaching to the choir.
Another thing that has me unhinged, have not heard Morris touting the rout lately either. I think Romney felt he had it wrapped up and did not kick the Kenyan’s ass in that last debate and may rue the day he did not stomp him out when he had the chance to do so. The wild card was Sandy and the asshat got his puss on the screen in anti Bush mode, or at least the perception that Bush was complacent and he is not.
You need to pick a party to vote in a (closed) primary. Ohio does not publish voter registration stats by party.
If they do, I would love to be shown exactly where those are.
Optimists on this site are baffled/angered by pessimists. I’m a bit of both, by the way; I truly find myself confident one day and unconfident the next, but I have a question for the eternal optimists...
How in the name of God, can ANYBODY be an optimist when the kenyan is in the White House?! It is ABSOLUTELY UNTHINKABLE that he could even be on a ballot in a sane country. Explain how you can be an eternal optimist with that thing in the WH.
You're not paying attention. :) I saw Mitt in Defiance last Thursday and again in Findlay on Sunday, with Paul Ryan. Then we had a storm. :)
Mitt will be at a huge rally down by Cincinnati this evening (55,000 tickets requested, they say), and in Cleveland on Sunday. I don't know the rest of theeir schedule, but I would bet they work another visit or two in there sometime.
Can’t Ann and the adorable grandchildren do something in Ohio?
I hope you are right....we got to stomp out these people.
There’s no point stressing out over polls. At this point, most people are just hanging up on pollsters anyway.
Looking at the voting patterns of so-called “independents” over the years, I’ve always said that an “independent” is somebody either too stupid to know what they are, or too gutless to admit that they are a liberal. Romney very likely never was up 14 points (or whatever) with indies. The media pollsters had to fabricate that in order to show Romney crashing back down at the end. Mission accomplished.
Some nutzoids on here say things like “independents break 80% towards the challenger!” (when it suits them). Or: “independents break 80% towards the incumbent!” (when it suits them).
Independents don’t break 80% towards *anybody*.
And anyone who is still deciding THIS late whether Romney or Bonzo the Wonder Chimp would be better for America over the next 4 years is clueless beyond belief and is hardly likely to make the smart choice.
Correct, how anyone could be unsure about whom to vote for simply means they are too dense to even have a vote in the first place.
I am of a mind that to vote one must bring in a W-2 or 1099 showing they are gainfully employed or retired from working. Why we allow professional bums to vote themselves bennies is beyond belief. When the economics of working takes a back seat to the economics of entitlement, you get what we got now, a community organizer who would be better suited to pushing a broom then running the country.
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