http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
says that Ohio is an R+1 state. That state does not register voters by party, so that's not whee the R+1 comes from. However, if R+1 is true, then either the R turnout rate will have to be less than the D turnout rate to get to some kind of D+whatever. Or:
Indies will have to break just a little in favor of Bonzo. Which, says Rasmussen, they are. And not by a little.
Something is amuck with that break to zero by the indy’s. Either they have been lying all along or the luck of the draw just worked against Romney. I just don’t see it shifting that much in a few days with all that is going on.
I don’t wish to be pollyanna though, the lack of Romney and Ryan visits to Ohio seems to indicate they have given up there so their internals may parot that move. FWIW, Ryan was here in Northeast Florida on Monday speeking at a county rally which historically will be at least 65% R. I could not figure out why not spend that day in either Ohio or Wisconsin where they need the votes more than from here where he was preaching to the choir.
Another thing that has me unhinged, have not heard Morris touting the rout lately either. I think Romney felt he had it wrapped up and did not kick the Kenyan’s ass in that last debate and may rue the day he did not stomp him out when he had the chance to do so. The wild card was Sandy and the asshat got his puss on the screen in anti Bush mode, or at least the perception that Bush was complacent and he is not.