Before you panic about poll numbers keep this in mind - they don't reflect reality on the ground.
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. '08
It is early AB not EV
It’s pretty obvious now the wheels are coming off the cooked polls train. They’ve survived by speculation and conjecture. The hard numbers are difficult to explain.
I’m so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.
I’ve ben working the phones for Romney. This last week it’s all GOTV calls and I gotta tell you...Romney voters are ALL anxious to vote, although few are willing to vote early (myself included).
As an aside, the Hurricane Sandy mess is a perfect illustration of why all states should have at least two weeks of full early voting, thus insuring against any such predictable but not avoidable disruptions affecting the election.
These results are "troubling for 0bama" ... 0bama is the central figure, the 'hero'.
Why are these results not presented as "reassuring for Romney"?
That might be down but not out...we have to beat his numbers before hand to make up for the built-in fraud that's coming our way...Dems have lawyered-up in all the swing states and we may not have a winner next Wednesday.
What effect is Virgil Goode having?
You mean they may not exceed Republicans by 10%? How can that be from our unbiased press?
Pray for America
Although I hope you're correct, don't such polls pave the way for massive election fraud before the end of next Tuesday? Are there realistic ways for Dems to "stuff ballot boxes" on Election Day? If Dems know in advance how much they need to make up (which they can deduce from these early voting numbers), can they conceivably generate enough "dead" votes to live up to these over-sampled polls?
In 2008, it was Dems +2.5%. In 2004, it was Republicans +1.5%.
Most polls are now using Dems +3 to +8...so better turnout from Dems than in 2008. No rational person would expect that.
My guess at intensity is that the Republicans are slightly more intense this year than in 2004, so maybe R +2. That was Gallup’s guess as well. If correct, Romney will win with a margin comparable to Obama’s victory in 2008.
I don’t ever trust the MSM polls. I’ll go with Gallup and Rasmussen. The others are using their polls to manipulate the public. Newsweek used to be THE worst, actually laughable.
It’s important to note that when they speak of “localities” in VA, they mean counties or independent cities (there are a lot of the latter). Some liberals have tried to show better results for Obama in certain precincts in some state or other, ignoring the fact that precinct number 104 from 2008 could be way different from precinct 104 in 2012 due to redistricting. However, county (and independent city) lines stayed the same, so Cook is comparing apples to apples. These findings indeed are great news.
If you apply the 2010 model, which this election is looking more and more like...you get a massive Obama defeat from the polling. The MSM and major polling places to date are unwilling to do this.
Dick Morris is averaging the elections from 2000 through 2010 and is showing a large Romney win...his model may end up being the most accurate...for obvious reasons.
On November 6th, We the People are goingt to STAND OBAMA DOWN!
http://www.jeffhead.com/standobamadown.htm
Cook Political Report VA Absentees Tracker, Updated 10/31/12
Got things nailed down in Ohio so you’ve turned your attention to Virginia, Tony?
Actually these polls are reflecting what is on the ground. They can NOT show a poll with a reasonable breakout of voters. They can ONLY come up with a lead by wildly oversampling RATS.
The polls are actually showing a huge landslide for R/R. 5-10%.
The possible fly in the ointment, is that election-year-to-election-year numbers might be measuring different things. The rules are evolving in many states regarding early voting, and whereas some of us refused to Early Vote as a protest against opening the door to vote fraud, now we feel, “what the heck, why fight it, it IS more convenient,” and so more of us join the EV crowd.
DU is on suicide watch.