Posted on 11/01/2012 6:55:46 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
I've been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama '08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain '08 (statewide down 9.2%)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O...in Kerry '04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. '08 (only -1.7% in Bush)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..
yes, at face value it means Obamas 2008 advantage is gone.
However the numbers only look at registered Dem and GOP voters. They don’t look at Indies and they don’t account for crossovers. In 2008 a lot of Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama. Few Dems crossed over to vote for McCain.
The question is, what will happen this year? If early voting indies are going overwhelmingly to Romney and the crossover situation from 2008 is reversed, Romney may already have an insurmountable lead in OH.
That’s somewhat informed speculation on my part,we’ll only know the truth on election day and my fingers are definitely crossed.
We have EARLY IN-PERSON ABSENTEE BALLOTING IN VA.
In 2008 18% of the votes cast were done this way. The fact is it is de facto early voting. No one challenges the reasons provided, which are many and easily met. You vote on an actual electronic voting machine, just as you do on election day. Once early voting is completed this Saturday, the machines will be sent to the county voting HDQTRS for safekeeping. On election day, the machines will download their voting totals by Congressional district just like any other voting machine.
How do I know this? I am a poll observer at a satellite location in VA. Anyone who thinks that there are no early voting stations in VA doesn't know what they are talking about and should get better informed. We (GOP) are ENCOURAGING people to vote early. Your disinformation does not further our objective.
The Dems have been using early voting here in VA for some time. Finally, the GOP has awakened. And we are so far more than holding our own.
What effect is Virgil Goode having?
You mean they may not exceed Republicans by 10%? How can that be from our unbiased press?
Pray for America
Although I hope you're correct, don't such polls pave the way for massive election fraud before the end of next Tuesday? Are there realistic ways for Dems to "stuff ballot boxes" on Election Day? If Dems know in advance how much they need to make up (which they can deduce from these early voting numbers), can they conceivably generate enough "dead" votes to live up to these over-sampled polls?
To reiterate, we do have in-person, early voting in VA, just like we had in 2008. The Dems here urge their folks to vote early. It is part of their strategy. Now we are starting to do the same thing and they are flummoxed.
How exactly are they "kept safe"? Tamper-proof sealed boxes? Armed guards? What?
“I’m so looking forward to next Tuesday and hearing the BS.”
Exactly!...Shows like the brain dead View on Wednesday morning should be fun to watch. Gilligans loss will not go down well with Whoopie and Joy Joy! LMAO! Boo Hoo!
It is worth noting that these are totals for “Obama localities” and not votes for Obama. In fact, GOP AB is up in Obama localities and Dem voting is down. How do we know this? By checking who has already voted and being able to identify our voters. We don’t have party affiliation in VA, but there are other ways to identify voter preferences.
Agreed. The effect of In Person Absentee in the Commonwealth is people vote early. I have not heard of anyone being denied In Person Absentee.
I can also see why polls conducted during the weekends are so varied from weekday polling. I get something like 90% no answers or answering machines on Saturdays but nearly 50% answers on weekdays.
You are reading too much into it. Obama is the incumbent, so that right there is reason enough. It’s also a subtle jab at the polls who are pushing the 2008 voter spread into this election.
In other words, relax. I do recall similar headlines concerning Bush back in the day.
Both. They are sealed each evening at the satellite station and then after early voting is completed, they are sealed until election day. The containers are sealed and placed in a sealed locked cabinet. And there are armed guards surrounding the government center facility. No armed guard at the satellite facility however, but there is an alarm system.
>> And there are armed guards surrounding the government center facility.
The sealing is good.
But unless the armed guards are actually WITH the ballots and all entry and exit is recorded, they offer little protection. Vote tampering will likely be an INSIDE job, and armed guards merely controlling access to the facility are just feel-good “security theater”.
Negligible. He falls under the 1% "other candidate" category.
That is correct.
In 2008, it was Dems +2.5%. In 2004, it was Republicans +1.5%.
Most polls are now using Dems +3 to +8...so better turnout from Dems than in 2008. No rational person would expect that.
My guess at intensity is that the Republicans are slightly more intense this year than in 2004, so maybe R +2. That was Gallup’s guess as well. If correct, Romney will win with a margin comparable to Obama’s victory in 2008.
I don’t ever trust the MSM polls. I’ll go with Gallup and Rasmussen. The others are using their polls to manipulate the public. Newsweek used to be THE worst, actually laughable.
Question. Do you have a feel if the above means more Republicans in total are or will be voting this year, or more are voting early this time around?
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