Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

Townhall ^ | Oct 31, 2012 | Guy Benson

[GonzoII]

October 31, 2012

Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

By Guy Benson

10/31/2012

 

Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:
 

Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line.  This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s.  Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive.  Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided.  If the Republican ticket looks well-positioned to win indies by a margin in the 15-20 point range, how does Obama lead the topline number by four points?  Simple. The overall partisan split is a whopping D+13.  Before you scoff and presume Romney may actually be winning, don't forget that the state's voter registration statistics are pretty similarly lopsided.  On the other hand, when I spoke with Susquehanna Polling Director Jim Lee a few weeks ago, he noted that Republican turnout (ie, actual votes) always over-performs the party's registration numbers -- sometimes by a large margin.  In the wave year of 2008, the Keystone State electorate was D+7.  This poll tacks six points on Democrats' 2008 turnout.  If that doesn't come to fruition, strong GOP turnout and independents for Romney could cook up a Pennsylvania surprise.  What is Romney's path to victory?  The Philly 'burbs:
 

If Pennsylvania stages a surprise next week, it’ll come out of suburban Philadelphia. The four so-called collar counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery) were once moderate Republican bastions. In the past two decades, the suburbs have gone for Democratic presidential candidates. You can’t win without them. Bucks (pop. 626,854) is the bellwether: A mix of educated middle-class, rural and blue-collar communities, it votes both ways in local elections—and always for the presidential winner. … Republicans in the collar counties had little reason for enthusiasm before the first debate. The morning after Denver, the party office in Bucks was overrun with people looking for Romney-Ryan lawn signs. The Romney message strategy echoes that of Sen. Toomey and other successful GOP candidates here two years ago: Talk about jobs and debt, appeal to bipartisanship, and avoid the subjects of abortion and religion as much as possible. As it happens, Mr. Romney is the first Northeasterner to get the Republican nod since the Connecticut native Bush 41 in 1988. He looks and sounds like Republicans whom Pennsylvanians have voted for in the past. Texas swagger and Sarah Palin didn’t play well in Bucks  

Guess where Romney is running his ads in Pennsylvania?  But remember, Team Obama keeps telling us they're not, not, not suddenly spending money on the air in Pennsylvania because they're nervous.  So it must be true.  I'm nowhere near ready to call an upset here, but it's fascinating to watch Chicago squirm.

Guy Benson

Guy Benson is Townhall.com's Political Editor. Follow him on Twitter @guypbenson.

[ConservativeInPA]

This guy is toast in PA.

I agree. South Central PA is fired up to vote against Obama. The hood vote from Harrisburg and York cities is easily offset by suburban and rural vote in the area. Delaware, Bucks and Montgomery counties have to step up the the plate to offset the Philly and Chester hood vote. The more I see and hear, the more I believe that will be the case.

[ConservativeInPA]

F&M polls based on voter registration. I have no idea why they do that, but it doesn’t reflect how people will turnout.

[WomBom]

Cross your fingers!

Just feels different this time.. If you are a kid, what do you have to be passionate about ? No jobs, no future, no hope.

[PermaRag]

It’s probably as worthless as Benson’s claim that “Bucks County ALWAYS votes for the Presidential winner”.

Pretty idiotic definition of “ALWAYS”, seeing as how Bucks voted for both Kerry and Gore.

[Revel]

I don’t know. Do you think that D+13 even comes close to account for the democrat cheating? You see the polling people know exactly what they are doing.

[mrs9x]

Revenge of the bitter clingers!

[gov_bean_ counter]

The Black vote is going to be so down, those NBP thugs are going to have to use their night sticks on their own people just to get them to the polls.

[Logical me]

Looks like PA is loaded with anti-Americans. Anti-Americans are those that cannot see who King Obama is, a communists black Muslim.

[Centaur]

It DOES feel different. I'm out in the country and there are rarely a lot of signs. My street has a couple dozen homes and they're all Romney signs. Even the farms, which never post anything, have Romney signs...just so unusual to see. And facebook, when I get a chance to look at it, is mostly anti-Obama or pro-Romney posts from everyone....daily. Crossed fingers and prayers.

[randita]

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!

[Mr. Silverback]

Ah...thanks for the info.

[tomkat]

Yes, there are some of those morons here, just like there are lots of 'em wherever you are.

Big talk from someone too paranoid to fly a state flag on their profile.

(here's a clue for free: Leviathan already knows where you are)

< plonk >

[st.eqed]

Chester county is no hood. We will go RR at a 10-1 margin. ;).

[Bigjimslade]

Great Internals !!!

We are winning Indies by 16 points and the poll only consists of 11% Indies, all the rest were shifted to the dem column as compared to last years exit polls.

The respondents reported voting 55 to 41 O to McCain last time and still the result is 48 to 44 a 7 point drop for O and 3 point gain for R. Since the 55 to 41 # is about twice the difference from the exit polls in 2008 this tells a lot about the oversampling.

If one of our horrible judges didn’t shoot down voter ID I would say PA is in the bag. It actually went to the supreme court which was 1/2 Republican and instead of just upholding the law they sent it back to the judge with instructions that if this law could keep one voter from voting it should be shot down. Apparently having thousands of ballots stolen by fraud is preferable to having one person that is too lazy to get an ID not vote. Even worse, the law gave the right to use a provisional ballot with no ID and present proof later which should have guaranteed anyone could vote. Still the judge postponed the law until the next election. I hope that decision doesn’t ultimately determine this election or give the dems the Senate. Without the voter ID who knows what the limit is on fraud from Philly or if there even is a limit. At least this time we don’t have Rendell here trying to suppress the military vote by holding onto their ballots too long.

[Bigjimslade]

Great Internals !!!

We are winning Indies by 16 points and the poll only consists of 11% Indies, all the rest were shifted to the dem column as compared to last years exit polls.

The respondents reported voting 55 to 41 O to McCain last time and still the result is 48 to 44 a 7 point drop for O and 3 point gain for R. Since the 55 to 41 # is about twice the difference from the exit polls in 2008 this tells a lot about the oversampling.

If one of our horrible judges didn’t shoot down voter ID I would say PA is in the bag. It actually went to the supreme court which was 1/2 Republican and instead of just upholding the law they sent it back to the judge with instructions that if this law could keep one voter from voting it should be shot down. Apparently having thousands of ballots stolen by fraud is preferable to having one person that is too lazy to get an ID not vote. Even worse, the law gave the right to use a provisional ballot with no ID and present proof later which should have guaranteed anyone could vote. Still the judge postponed the law until the next election. I hope that decision doesn’t ultimately determine this election or give the dems the Senate. Without the voter ID who knows what the limit is on fraud from Philly or if there even is a limit. At least this time we don’t have Rendell here trying to suppress the military vote by holding onto their ballots too long.

[ConservativeInPA]

Chester county is no hood. We will go RR at a 10-1 margin. ;).

I was referring to Chester city, home of the Chester-Upland School District, where they graduate generation after generation of functionally illiterate hood rats. (A bankrupt school district, definitely the worst in the commonwealth and perhaps one of the worst in the country.)

You are completely correct. Chester County is no hood. Chester city is a hood. BTW, You can take the Conchester highway (rt 322) from Chester (city) to get to Chester (county). Along the way, you will pass Chichester, which is made up of Upper Chichester and Lower Chichester. Yes, there is a distinction between the two, and the upper and lower parts both apply.

I fully understand Chester County will vote for RR as they did for Juan McCain. On the other hand, Delaware, Montgomery and Bucks counties did not. I am most concerned about Montgomery county out of the three.

[old and tired]

I am most concerned about Montgomery county out of the three.

I'd have thought Delaware county (with Chester) to be the most worrisome. RR may not carry Montco, but it'll be very close. Until the last couple of weeks, I was certain RR was going to carry my county because there was virtually NO visible support for 0 here in Montco. I am in between Philadelphia and Norristown. Philly has a very unenthused African American population so the turnout won't be anything like 2008. Drive through Norristown and you wouldn't even know there was an election coming so I'd say their turnout is going to be way down.

Do you know where I can find the numbers for the specific areas for the 2008 election? I'm specifically interested in Conshohocken, Jenkintown, and Lower Merion

[ConservativeInPA]

Philly has a very unenthused African American population

I would think Chester city is less enthusiastic than Philadelphia. I grew up in Delaware county, but I have not lived there for 30 years, so I may be incorrect. It used to be Republicans could count on folks living west of the railroad tracks. ( Memory is failing me, the R3 line ... The train that runs from Wilmington to Suburban station.)

[dglang]

My wife and I did our patriotic duty today and cast our votes for the GOP.

Along the street to the early voting location we saw three Obama signs and over 30 GOP signs.

FWIW, we are in Central Florida.

[WomBom]

We’ll be in Vero for Thanksgiving! Can’t wait.

Good job casting your early ballot!!