Posted on 10/28/2012 3:37:05 PM PDT by Arthurio
Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.
Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.
The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report. Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.
The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
· President Barack Obama holds a slim one percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest whole percentage point.)
· Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio voters are undecided in this race.
· Early voters clearly favor the Democratic candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the 20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.
· The likely voters who have not yet cast ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent), while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).
· This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.
The poll itself says that 40% D and 32% R.
What is even more devastating is that Romney is up by 12 among independents. If this poll is even remotely accurate, Romney is going to win the state.
Gravis in Ohio was tied 47 - 47 last week.
Not sure what the partisan breakdown was on that one though.
I think his turnout models are wrong and the net effect will be to add 2 or 3 percentage points to expected Romney votes.
But, I could be wrong about that. Perhaps, the pollsters are subconsciously including democrat voter fraud already into their projections.
I was thinking 3-4, but it may be more than that. Of course, must stay outside the margin of Axelrod.
That all said, I would like to throw in here that Ohio is going to go to Mitt Romney this year. All this caterwauling needs to stop. Time for Mitt to start campaigning in places like Minnesota, Oregon and New Jersey.
That’s right, media.. Keep showing 0bama ahead! Love it, Freepers; This ‘news’ gives the scare the Undecideds need to go out and vote for Romney!
There are 4 other polls that show it tied in OHIO
Poll ping.
Yeah! Obama is more popular than in 2008!...Dem +8 to get him to win by 1 point....nice!/s(the /s is for those who could not figure it out)
The title???
There are 4 other polls that show it tied in OHIO
+++++++++
But are they D+8? That’s why this poll is so encouraging, the totally unrealistic D/R/I.
Great news. Looks like Ohio men and women are moving over To RR
Though I have lived outside the US for many years I am officially from New Jersey
I think that the polls there are somewhat skewed as well. While I don’t think it is a lock as an upset I think it may well be much closer than than the pre-election polls suggest.
If you get away from Newark and Camden NJ is fairly conservative place in some ways. I think that Chris Christie has shown a lot of conservatives there that they can stand up and say “No” to the faux moral high ground that liEberals try to occupy.
If the weather is bad the welfare queens and dopers may stay home but I think the more suburban voters - those not on the coast especially will get out and vote, many of them for Romney
It isn’t just Ohio that is in play.
Though I have lived outside the US for many years I am officially from New Jersey
I think that the polls there are somewhat skewed as well. While I don’t think it is a lock as an upset I think it may well be much closer than than the pre-election polls suggest.
If you get away from Newark and Camden NJ is fairly conservative place in some ways. I think that Chris Christie has shown a lot of conservatives there that they can stand up and say “No” to the faux moral high ground that liEberals try to occupy.
If the weather is bad the welfare queens and dopers may stay home but I think the more suburban voters - those not on the coast especially will get out and vote, many of them for Romney
It isn’t just Ohio that is in play.
These poll results are looking better, but it still doesn’t help that Romney hasn’t led in a single one. We are nine days out. That’s why Ohio still worries me.
The bottom line is, half these polls are going to be wrong on election night. Either Romney wins the popular vote and wins Ohio, or he loses the popular vote and loses Ohio. The possibility of a split is so unlikely.
Tell me how those exit polls worked in 2004.
The article stated a 63-35% advantage for Obama among early voters.
Found it.
Last week Gravis had it 47 - 47 with D +9.
This week it is 50 - 49 in favor of the Kenyan with D +8.
Certainly not a devastating development by any means, but also no cause for celebration.
If Obama really wins early voters by 28%, then he likely will win the state.
I think Adrian Gray’s numbers said the Dems were only winning by around 13% though.
Is that 13% margin consistent with what you heard, LS?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.