Posted on 10/27/2012 11:55:43 AM PDT by Arthurio
Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos on Wednesday said Ohio will be critical to the presidential ambitions of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney with the path to victory in that state "difficult for the president," while former Gov. Michael Dukakis called the possible scenario of the election winner losing the popular vote "not very Democratic."
Paleologos, Dukakis and former Congressman and deputy Republican Party Chairman Peter Blute took part in a panel discussion Wednesday afternoon hosted by Suffolk University analyzing the presidential race and the state of presidential politics.
"Ohio is the road to the White House for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney," Paleologos said, noting that his most recent poll in that state showed the two men deadlocked at 47 percent apiece.
Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said any time an incumbent polls under 50 percent "it's very dangerous for you because you're the known commodity." Paleologos also outlined other challenges in the Buckeye State for Obama that include the diminished clout of Cuyahoga County and the potential impact of third-party candidates in a close race.
Though Obama leads Romney by 13 points among the 20 percent of Ohio voters who have already cast ballots, Paleologos said the Suffolk poll found independent Richard Duncan and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, of Massachusetts, capturing
2 percent each among votes already cast. "Those are Barack Obama voters, Jill Stein voters. You can't get those back," he said.
Cuyahoga County, which includes the greater Cleveland area, is also favorable to Democrats, but its share of the overall Ohio vote has been on the decline since the Clinton years from 12.4 percent to 11.3 percent in 2008. Paleologos said if Romney can win the other counties in the state by more than 225,000 votes, the former governor will win.
(Excerpt) Read more at lowellsun.com ...
This is the same pollster who startled just about everyone by announcing a couple of weeks ago that Romney had VA, NC and FL in the bag and he therefore would not bother to poll there any longer.
Did Dukakis just sit there and pick at his eyebrows ?
Comments?
Mike Dukakis is also an idiot who doesn't understand the Constitution and that we live in a Republic and not a "Democracy". Our founding fathers came up with the Electoral College, as opposed to a popular vote, so that Philadelphia, New York and Boston would not solely determine the president for the rest of the nation (due to their overwhelming populations at the time).
That sound reasoning still applies today. With a popular vote, we would only see campaigning in urban places like Los Angeles, Chicago, New York and Atlanta. People in states like Utah, Maine, Alaska, North Dakota and Iowa (not to mention a score of others) would simply not have a role to play in presidential elections nor would they have any say in who their president will be.
Mike Dukakis is also an idiot who doesn't understand the Constitution and that we live in a Republic and not a "Democracy". Our founding fathers came up with the Electoral College, as opposed to a popular vote, so that Philadelphia, New York and Boston would not solely determine the president for the rest of the nation (due to their overwhelming populations at the time).
That sound reasoning still applies today. With a popular vote, we would only see campaigning in urban places like Los Angeles, Chicago, New York and Atlanta. People in states like Utah, Maine, Alaska, North Dakota and Iowa (not to mention a score of others) would simply not have a role to play in presidential elections nor would they have any say in who their president will be.
Mike Dukakis is also an idiot who doesn't understand the Constitution and that we live in a Republic and not a "Democracy". Our founding fathers came up with the Electoral College, as opposed to a popular vote, so that Philadelphia, New York and Boston would not solely determine the president for the rest of the nation (due to their overwhelming populations at the time).
That sound reasoning still applies today. With a popular vote, we would only see campaigning in urban places like Los Angeles, Chicago, New York and Atlanta. People in states like Utah, Maine, Alaska, North Dakota and Iowa (not to mention a score of others) would simply not have a role to play in presidential elections nor would they have any say in who their president will be.
Hang on a minute! How do we know this??? These votes haven't been counted yet.Are they assuming that everyone who's registered as a Rat is voting for Baraq? Sounds like an effort to suppress Republican voters to me.
I am neither of those esteemed FReepers, but I will chime in, anyway. :)
Ohio is losing population, and the largest drains are from Lucas and Cuyahoga counties, both heavily Democratic. Cuyahoga alone has lost over 400,000 registered voters since 2008 (likely 80% of them Democrats), partly because of population decrease, partly because our Secretary of State has weeded out thousands of dead and fraudulent registrations (in part a legacy of the ACORN registration drives of 2008). Cuyahoga is the key to a win for Romney; if he can hold down Obama's margins there, he will carry Ohio.
The other factor is the real-time data provided by the absentee ballot requests so far this cycle. There have been 220,000 fewer Democrat requests and 30,000 more Republican requests, a swing of 250,000 in favor of the GOP since 2008. That does not count unaffiliated requests, which, if the current polling showing Romney was ahead in Independent voters is correct, should lean towards Romney.
The Republican vote on Election Day will swamp the Democrat vote for people who vote on Election Day (by as much as ten points), so it is possible that Romney has already won Ohio - we just need to turn out our voters on Election Day, and it's over.
13 point early vote lead is small compared to the ludicrous 30 or 40 point early voter leads some polls have been giving to Obama.
My main qualm about waiting til election day to swamp the Rats is other factors could come into play then... bad weather? terrorist attack?
In 2008 suffolk poll had obama by 9 in ohio, but election resultr was only by 4.
Polls
Is it just me - where is John Kasich in all of this? Is he not considered popular?
Help us Obi Won Kenobi(OHIO), you’re our only hope!
UGH! It’s so hard living in a country where even poli sci professors and former politicians are ignorant about the nature of the U.S. gov’t. Then they go and mis-educate the next generation until the U.S. is not even recognizable anymore.
To The “Duke”, former Haaaavaaaad professor: we live in the United STATES of America, a republic, not the American People’s Democracy. Popular vote means diddly squat for a very good reason. Go read the Federalist papers you fraud. You might learn something. (Though you probably feel you are smarter than all of the Founding Fathers combined so you don’t need to read about any of that ancient, irrelevant stuff.)
True.
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