That someone wins and popular vote and does not win Ohio is a NON-ISSUE.
Remembering something devilishly tasty: The Dems demanding that the Electoral Vote be dropped, and the Popular Vote be used.
Let’s listen now to their reaction.....
** crickets **
How many of these 22 national head-to-head polls oversample DemocRATS?
I noticed that many California (mark as liberal) newspapers are endorsing Romney. I don’t believe this has ever happened before. Interesting twist of events.
The chance of winning the popular vote (PV) but losing the electoral vote drops exponentially as the gap in the popular vote widens. Gore outpolled Bush by a mere 0.51% in 2000. Currently Romney enjoys approximately a 2-3 point edge in the PV (probabaly more like 3-5 points if the oversampling of Dems is accounted for). Unless the polls are very, very wrong or something changes drastically Obama cannot count on history to repeat itself in his favor.
OBAMA has ZERO chance, and always did, of winning the popular vote, his only chance was to try to cobble together an EC win, which was never possible either.
Obama never had a prayer at getting over 42-43% of the popular vote.... and frankly he could get far less. The idea he could pull out an EC win, but lose the popular vote by the margin he’s going to lose by was a pipe dream.
I don’t care what the polls say, OHIO isn’t going to be close folks.. Romney will win it, and win it by at least 4.
FIGHT LIKE ITS NECK AND NECK! GOTV!!! but don’t think for one minute this thing is close.
2004 Bush won Ohio 50.8% 48.7%, vs national 50.7% 48.3%
So Ohio tracks the national results pretty well.
It's simply a correlation, that whoever wins nationally will likely also win Ohio. Obama appears to think there's some mystical significance to Ohio, so he's be putting lots of ads there. The net result may be that he wins Ohio, but loses enough swings states to make Romney the winner, and retire the meme that a Republican needs to win Ohio.
2. That is, if they don't vote for Romney, then they can't go to the White House making demands because they believe that Romney owes them.
3. My point is this: Blacks and Hispanics better be careful who they vote for if they vote for this election, because if Romney wins, Romney can do what he pleases because he won't owe blacks and Hispanics anything, because they didn't vote for him.
..... Fingers crossed that the Electoral numbers will be well over the minimum to prevent any legal challenges by the OPFOR.
What am I missing here?
Romney leads among male voters by double digits.
Romney has closed the women gap.
How can you not win the popular vote when you got those kind of stats?
Are there that many transgender and biosexual voters out there?
He also said if we win....needs to drop the if
| 2004 National | 50.7 | 48.3 |
| 2004 Ohio | 50.8 | 48.7 |
That someone wins and popular vote and does not win Ohio is a NON-ISSUE.
Remember though that early voting on the scale we see today is relatively new. That changes things - perhaps dramatically. There is a reason the Democrats support this so heavily and Republicans don't. Early voting gives the Democrats a lot of time to drag the drug addled, dependent, marginal, and very low information voter types out. It is a boon to them. Many/most of these types of people would have otherwise simply stayed home - especially in an election like this where GOP enthusiams is higher. Early voting is the only reason they are ahead or even in Ohio. Most of those polls are factoring in people who have already voted and Obama is winning near 2/3rds of them.
It depends on who is counting the vote
For someone to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, the popular vote margin would have to be razor thin. If the polls are remotely accurate (I still remain skeptical and only see them as momentum indicators) and Romney does indeed have a 3 point or large edge among likely voters, all the undecideds would have to break to Obozo. And that’s assuming these polls have the same Dem-R-Indy mix we’ll see on Election Day, which I kind of doubt.
So...if...IF...the polls are accurate, a pop-win-electoral loss by either candidate requires Obama to have great turnout plus get all the remaining undecideds. I think it’s too late to get that done, but we’ll see.
This article confirms what this election model has predicted all along:
U of Colorado Study: 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote
The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned.
The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.
“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.
That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.
Yeah, Dubya won Ohio and lost the pop vote, but Dick Morris has estimated that the early call for Florida cost Dubya a half million votes in the western time zones. So...if no early call, Ohio would still track with the pop vote.
Now, daggone it... where have I heard that "47 percent" reference before....
God bless Oklahoma! Not one county in that great state drank the kool-aid.