The chance of winning the popular vote (PV) but losing the electoral vote drops exponentially as the gap in the popular vote widens. Gore outpolled Bush by a mere 0.51% in 2000. Currently Romney enjoys approximately a 2-3 point edge in the PV (probabaly more like 3-5 points if the oversampling of Dems is accounted for). Unless the polls are very, very wrong or something changes drastically Obama cannot count on history to repeat itself in his favor.
The Polls IMHO are indeed very wrong, but they are wrong in overstating the vote totals Obama will get, not Romney.. the idea of an EC win with Pop loss is a laughable premise in this election.
Obama has no chance, never did.