Dick Morris: Romney Will Win By a 4-8 Point Margin with over 300 Electoral Votes (Video)

Gateway Pundit ^ | October 23,2012 | Dick Morris

[Hojczyk]

Dick Morris predicted on The O’Reilly Factor tonight that Mitt Romney will win by 4-8 points and over 300 electoral votes. Morris also said Romney will likely take Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

[Lady Heron]

Does not account for 3rd party vote. In the past have they not gotten at least 1 or 2 points???

[Wyatt's Torch]

Exactly. Whatever Morris says you can bank on it never happening. I wish he would pick stocks...or football games.

[FrankR]

I would venture to say that, if obama loses, especially if he loses BIG, him and his petulant attitude will totally skip Romney’s inaugeration.

[mware]

That college in CO predicted a big Romney win over a month ago.

[Little Ray]

I wonder how much money he has on this an Intrade?

[Haiku Guy]

...him and his petulant attitude will totally skip Romney’s inaugeration.

Wouldn't that be something... Jimmy Carter is hoping this happens. It would really cement Obama's position as The Worst President of All Time, and get Carter's name off the top of that list!

[GOPsterinMA]

Yes, but yours truly predicted a blowout 4-6 months ago. I’ll state it again, look for Romney to get the percentage of the 1988 election and the EV’s of the 1992 election.

[trebb]

God Bless Dick for seeing the light. He’s about due to be right and this would be a perfect time.

[LibLieSlayer]

Dick has people from both parties that talk with him. He absolutley has info we are not privvy to. He is sometimes very wrong and he is not always the best at reading tea leaves but he has a pretty good idea of this election because most people do not realize that he has his own private polling firm and he has direct polling results to compare against the crap that is spiced up for public consumption.

LLS

[RPTMS]

By this time in 2008, he said Obama would win.

[Delhi Rebels]

How can you doubt him after his brilliant Hillary vs. Condi call in the 2008 election?

[RPTMS]

It’s a lot easier to pick the winner of the Super Bowl after the conference championships than during the preseason.

[tanknetter]

Obama cannot get over 50% in any poll. His approval rating is below 50%.

Yes, that's what Morris is looking at, how the undecideds will break. And the consensus has always been that the undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger and for the exact reason you cite.

However, this is a pretty weird year for polling (part of a trend that's been growing for a good number of cycles now). First, I believe companies like Gallup when they say they don't weight their results by party ID (so Party ID is just a question they ask at the end). I also believe polling companies when they say that over 90% of polling calls are failures due to non-answers or rejections.

Those things add up to the conclusion that participation in polls is now self-selecting, that the "science" is gone from them and they really aren't that much better than the online polls we're constantly FReeping.

Given that, I think that the polls this year are way, way, way off. But I have no idea how much and in what direction and I'm not confident at all in assuming that a D+9 poll just needs to be refactored for a D+2 or D+3 turnout model. My gut tells me to look at the enthusiasm numbers, and maybe the right-track/wrong-track ones ... but that's just a guess. My thought is that both campaigns are doing things not based on polls but on SWAGs/Expert Judgement (TX, UT and AK going for Romney, no further research needed for instance) and feedback they're getting from door-knockers (in swing states like OH, PA, WI and MI). Which right now may just be the best (if not "good") way of trying to figure things out.

[Revolting cat!]

[kempo]

I think too many people have been bumb down to believe an incumbent President can win with 4 years of 8 to 10 percent unemployment and $3.50 to $4 gasoline. No way Obama will win! We have a lot of stupid people in this country but not that many.

I'll go along with Dick Morris. Obama gets his ass kicked good.

[I_be_tc]

Do you think he will have a seal saying “President Reject of the US”. Can hardly wait.

[thecodont]

I have suspected for some time that 0 internals do not look very exciting in CA, and approvals of barely 50% in a dark blue state spells big trouble. Lowered d enthusiasm means lower d turnout. The GOP base should be emboldened and enthusiastic. Although the tracking polls won’t show it, the CA vote could be much closer than people predict....and it is possible that the boatload of CA EVs could go to Romney.

Call me crazy - but I’m saying it’s possible. Despite the color on all of the EV maps, CA is not as solid for the Big 0 as everybody thinks.

No, you're crazy like a fox.

On the way home today I looked at all the commuter traffic and thought, every one of those cars contains a driver with a job dearly held onto, and gas dearly bought, and necessities barely afforded. These are grim people, serious and purposeful people, and none of their cars carried bumper stickers -- not for BO, not for Romney or anyone else. If they were BO voters, they'd have stickers.

Even the people voicing support (such as it is) are more hesitant about BO. I saw one BO sign in a roll-down window, but on a window (taped inside to the window) the sign is less vulnerable but is also more easily removed.

Look in the SF East Bay Area and tell me what it is you see. Any cars with presidential bumper stickers (they are rare) are more likely to proudly sport old Kerry/Edwards or Dennis Kucinich bumper stickers than they are BO stickers.

And what of BO yard signs? There are none. I saw two in Oakland, and the one I saw in Berkeley was in a window, posted by a renter not an owner, likely a clueless college student.

BO's people have no idea (or perhaps they do) how angry Californians are.

Beware the silent majority. Nixon knew of them. Do they?

[thecodont]

Any third party votes are votes sucked away from BO. Yes, I’ve seen Gary Johnson yard signs in my general neighborhood. This tells me how BO is valued these days.

[gswilder]

Morris said tonight, there are 4 PA polls that he has seen that have Romney up (by 3 i think). 2 public, which we have seen. and 2 private.

He said he polled MI last weekend and it was a dead heat (44/45 - forget whether O/R was up 1). Also new Fox poll out of MI has it tied.

Polling is one of the things Morris made a living on, so I suspect he knows a lot more than we do.

Polling is just one tool the campaigns have now to grasp the state of things and develop their strategies from. Tons of early voting and absentee voting, which we didn’t have 8 year ago.

Also, what do you sense as the state of the race? Not who you want to win, but who looks like they are winning. What are the fundamental issues of the election? This all points to a Romney win. I wanted McCain/Palin to win. But by mid-October, I knew Obama was going to win. The crowds, the way the campaign was acting and reacting. Right now, Romney is drawing HUGE crowds. A lot of late donations. Romeny doing big picture stuff (did you see Ryan’s poverty speech today? excellent) Romney doing a major economic speech Friday in Iowa.

What is Obama doing? Talking about small issues. Flying around all night in a gimmicky GOTV effort. Romney is calm and self assured. Obama flailing around, throwing stuff at the wall.

Have faith my friends. I really don’t think this will be a razor thin Romney win. 52/47 Romney and 300+ EVs.

[Nervous Tick]

Interesting observations.

For ten years or so I spent about half my time in the Bay Area (the rest near Austin).

I never quite could figure out why Silicon Valley went so big for a marxist. Clinton, that at least made some sense. But Obama? Why?