Posted on 10/23/2012 1:35:05 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
With Romney gaining ground gradually in the swing state of Ohio, people have not paid enough attention to his surge in next door Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania casts 20 electoral votes and Ohio casts 18. And all electoral votes are created equal. It is possible to lose Ohio if you carry Pennsylvania and still win.
In Pennsylvania, polling by Republican John McLaughlin shows Romney three points ahead of Obama and a poll by The Susquehanna Polling organization shows Romney four points ahead in the Keystone State.
In Ohio, most polls have the race tied although all show significant progress by Romney in the past two weeks.
Why is Pennsylvania, nominally a more Democratic state, more hospitable to Romney than Ohio? Because Obama has run tens of millions of dollars of negative ads in Ohio smearing Romney, but has not done so in Pennsylvania.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
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Looks like the Big “O” machine will once again have to call on the talents of the Black Panther Poll Watchers.
Meanwhile a new Reuter/Ipsos analysis shows Obama trouncing Romney and claiming 332 electoral votes, inc. the states of FL, VA, OH, and CO.
Link to article about Reuters/Ipsos poll.
romney must move into PA - start in the Pittsburgh market, then Scranton, then Philly.
It’s not just a contingency plan, but it will also drain Obama dry.
If you go to RCP’s own map, Gov. Romney can win WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Ohio. If you give him he 206 they do, and add FL, CO, IA, NV, VA and WI, Romney gets 279. Add Ohio and/or Pennsylvania, he wins walking away. In addition, I don’t see any scenario where Pres. Obama can win if he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania.
We really blew it by not dividing our Electoral Votes by Congressional District as was proposed.
That being said...I do think Barry is in deep trouble here.
He has really rubbed the Bitter Clingers the wrong way with his War on Coal and racial divide-and-conquer game. Plus in the Johnstown region you had a cadre of very reliable Democrats who always pulled the handle cause they owed their jobs to John Murtha. He is dead, his district is no more, and they are now Free Agents in every sense of the word.
Anything can and generally will happen in Philly, but Mitt has a realistic shot here.
I know former Chair voters here in southeastern Montco who are now voting Romney. The Obama signs are invisible. Romney signs all over the place. New ones popping up every day.
And right now Romney is flush with some $80 million or more while Barry reportedly spent the majority of his money over the last few weeks. Romney can therefor outspend Obama by a wide margin, unless of course Barry’s Saudi Arabian friends start writing him illegal checks again!
The paths to victory without OH and PA are:
1. MI (unlikely)
2. IA and NV (Republican House breaks 269-269 tie)
3. WI and one of either IA, NV or NH
These assume FL, VA and CO, none of which Romney can realistically afford to lose.
Caddell on Neil Cavuto said that if Obumbler doesn’t get a substantial bounce out of last night’s debate by early Monday...game over...SO I am assuming that if Obumbler gets a small bounce but stays under 50% it will be Romney’s race to lose. God please get this EVIL man out of our WH...PLEASE keep his numbers under 47%...in Jesus Name!
Likewise in Virginia the only poll that shows an Obama lead is Dem oversampled CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll from the first week of October. Rasmussen also has Virginia outside the MOE.
Finally there is Wisconsin. Once again the most recent Rasmussen poll puts this state in Romney's camp outside MOE. The only poll on the list that shows Obama up is the heavily biased CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll from October 4-9. The post debate 1 surge wouldn't even show up in that poll.
The biggest problem with using RCP is that they rate all the polls equally. When there is a trend running, as there is now for Romney, they tend to understate it because of the older polls on the list. In addition they weight Democrat oversampled polls alongside Gallup and Rasmussen.
Caddell on Neil Cavuto said that if Obumbler doesn’t get a substantial bounce out of last night’s debate by early Monday...game over...SO I am assuming that if Obumbler gets a small bounce but stays under 50% it will be Romney’s race to lose. God please get this EVIL man out of our WH...PLEASE keep his numbers under 47%...in Jesus Name!
My opinion, it’s better for Romney to hit IA, NV and WI with ads than OH or PA. They should cost the same or less money but offer two chances for victory instead of one for the same amount of money.
Isn’t Romney on track to pick up 1 EV in Maine? Wouldn’t that break the tie in scenario 2?
NV and IA went Republican in 2004. PA hasn’t since 1988. Romney should win NV and IA for a 269-269 tie and call it a day.
It will but Maine has never before split their vote to my knowledge. So if that happened, it seems likelier Romney would be sweeping in with a much wider win anyway.
Now, THAT is a scary thought to contemplate..
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