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Posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:32 AM PDT by Siegfried X
IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll
Day 13: Oct. 21, 2012
Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%
Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.)
Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
A four-point jump for Obama??? Yeah.. sure.
Let me guess.. 0bama also has 5-point leads in all the battleground states, too... especially Ohio, where he`s leading by 12.
Even the Daily Kos poll on Friday had RR up by 4.
The whole point of sampling is to achieve something reflective of the average opinion of a far larger group ~ and you attempt to do that with a random sample.
If you subsequently adjust your random sample to reflect what you think you want, it is no longer a random sample poll ~ it's just an auger ~ rather like the ones the Roman's looked at.
The party weighting in this poll is pre set to 37 Dem, 30 GOP. It has been this way every single day since its inception.
It appears IBD are Obama prostitutes with the results of this poll using far more democrats then republicans.
I can’t remember the last time I bothered with responding to a call about politics. If there is any sign it is a “poll” or from a candidate, I either don’t pick up, or hang up. I have no idea what the political breakdown is of people who answer telephone polls, but I’d bet a lot of Republicans act like I do.
Any poll that gives someone a 1.7% lead one day and then a 5.7% lead the next day has something seriously wrong with it.
And Zero is getting 22% of conservatives according to this poll...yeah right...what a joke...
Relax it’s an outlier. Besides TIPP will have to adjust their samples next week.
Far from it, read their editorials which are also posted here every evening. This is a poll from TIPP that they use.
Investor’s Business Daily doesn’t appear to know who their audience is—Yet another reason why I don’t subscribe.
With technology changing the means of polling i.e., fewer landlines, caller ID and I suppose people just not wanting to “play” any more — when do you think the tipping point is as far as reliability in most any poll. This election? 4 years from now/
Please see Post #32 — I meant to send it to you.
Romney only up 1 in the South????
LOL!
What did they poll Austin and Charlotte?
Romney is up double digits in most every southern state, and he’s only leading Obama by one? Right!
Plus it has a tiny sample of 913 voters - which is about 130 phone calls per day which would equal about 2 people per state.
The bummer is that this cancels out the Gallup poll in RCP. Which I am sure is the intended purpose.
Don’t get hung up on the internals, you worry warts. Check the Gallup poll today. Check other polls. All of ‘em “scientific”. All of them garbage. Call 1024 people yourself and conduct a poll, it’ll be as valid as any of them. ANY!
Probably Austin and Asheville. Romney has the South sewn up. All he needs is Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, & Pennsylvania will be icing on the cake.
Siegfried X, I appreciate the fact that you brought this to our attention. It was out there, so I’m not faulting you.
It’s just so wildly fluctuating, that it means nothing other than that IBD seems careless. I think a commentary on their figures is warranted. That’s all.
Take care.
The TIPP poll was produced SOLELY for the MSM and RCP average narrative
I can understand a poll being +-2 of any other poll. For example, if you look at the cross tabs today on the Rasmussen poll, he has a R52 O48 number once he removes the undecideds. Well that is not so far off the R52 045 number that Gallup has, as Gallup has a 3% MOE
But to come and say that R is at 42% as TIPP said is unbelievable. In fact it is downright dishonest
Pre-first debate, having Romney in the low 40s would be more believable than now.
Sure seems deliberately aimed at manipulating the RCP averages.
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