IBD Daily poll +5.7% Obama (but was only 1.7% yesterday)![Dem +7%]

IBD/TIPP ^ | 10/21/12 | IBD/TIPP

[Siegfried X]

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

Day 13: Oct. 21, 2012

Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%

Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20

Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%

Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.)

Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples

[Siegfried X]

I post this just to show it is a wildly fluctuating, unreliable poll. The differences between the two candidates over the past 3 days are:

Obama +0.5% 10/19/12 Obama +1.7% 10/20/12 Obama +5.7% 10/21/12

Those are huge jumps, especially considering that 6 daily polls are averaged

[God luvs America]

if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...

[ScaniaBoy]

And the Dems are really doing well. I think we’ll get a new majority in the House.

/Sarcasm!! (Just in case there are any nervous nellies out there.)

[goldstategop]

Ds are oversampled by 7+ and Obama is supposedly up by 5+. But he is still at 47% - bad news for an incumbent. He cannot get a majority no matter how much friendly pollsters “fix” it for him.

Its over.

[entropy12]

“if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...”

Fantastic memory you have!

[tatown]

Pure garbage. It has Obama leading among men! Also it has Romney down 6 yet leading Indy’s by 6? HAHA

[God luvs America]

found it....i was right in content but wrong w/the numbers...

IBD/TIPP: Dramatic McCain Shift – 2 Point Race

http://www.bucksright.com/ibdtipp-dramatic-mccain-shift-2-point-race-2178

[Yashcheritsiy]

This poll is junk. It’s such a far outlier, it’s got to be a 1 in 1000 fluke.

[God luvs America]

found it....i was right in content but wrong w/the numbers...

IBD/TIPP: Dramatic McCain Shift – 2 Point Race

http://www.bucksright.com/ibdtipp-dramatic-mccain-shift-2-point-race-2178

[muawiyah]

The problem isn't the methodology, nor is there a model being applied to the data ~ it's the sampled population ~ you call 10,000 people and you will end up with about 910 old enough and willing enough to answer a few questions.

With CALLER ID in general use what this means is the ONLY people responding to the poll are those who want to respond. That is NO LONGER A RANDOM SAMPLE!

My judgment is this isn't a reliable or meaningful poll. Ignore it. You can ignore all the others too. They are all like that according to PEW.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%

ROTFL! Yeah! Right.

[lacrew]

Dem +7 but O is only up 5.7. He is losing the independent vote.

[Red Steel]

if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...

Correct. And are now overcompensating the other way.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Probably taken in downtown Oakland.

[muawiyah]

A sample is what it is (although that doesn't matter since polling doesn't matter either) so it isn't like someone sits down and tries to call 7% too many Democrats.

The whole point of sampling is to achieve something reflective of the average opinion of a far larger group ~ and you attempt to do that with a random sample.

If you subsequently adjust your random sample to reflect what you think you want, it is no longer a random sample poll ~ it's just an auger ~ rather like the ones the Roman's looked at.

[DoughtyOne]

When a poll shows this much fluctuation without cause, it’s not worthy of publishing.

IBD is not doing anyone any favors with this poll.

You could get the odd Republican out there that would read this and think it’s all over for Romney.

It’s just nutty to publish this rubbish.

Not trying to give you a hard time Siegried X. IBD is exercising journalistic malpractice here IMO.

[Siegfried X]

IBD is included in Real Clear Politics averages, which is why I posted here.

[goldstategop]

Liberal pollster that doesn’t want credibility. If you believe as he does - that Obama can win without independents, you’re whistling in the dark.

There’s no way he’s leading with white men and independents. Apparently, the guys who took this poll missed that memo!

[Lacey2]

Attempt to cancel Gallup Poll effect on RCP avg of polls.