Posted on 10/18/2012 4:13:37 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
Electoral Map Contest!
I recognized it and it made my heart glad at that time....now just wistful... working hard to get as much red as possible out there
Romney should flash a wicked grin and say to any potential Blue states.... if you go for Obama in 2012, you will get the treatment that Obama gave to the states that didn’t vote for him in 2008.
The only reason its not a route is due to population distributions.. it will be a route in the popular vote, but the EC won’t be a 49-1.
I believe Obama is going to be around 42-43% of the popular vote max, but due to the ideological distribution of the electorate, it won’t be a 49-1 EC... However it will be the greatest drubbing a sitting president has received since Herbert Hoover if I am right.
BTW....that's about what I have guessed...
I will settle for no less than the electoral map in ‘72.
You can toss in IA and WI in the R column NH and q EV from ME.
I put in PA so the total as I said is 327 which includes NM. If Obama carries the latter, its still 322. The high water mark would be 330 EV.
Same here but the Reagan Democrats died out or moved out of CA and NY.
I don’t see a landslide like that happening. I’d love for the Democrats to be steamrollered but O’s numbers would have to undergo a catastrophic collapse.
Anything’s possible, so we’ll see what happens over the next 19 days.
157 Obama/Biden
Toss Ups
0
Romney/Ryan 381
64 65 28 36 222 123
270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win (Recent Race Changes)
Pre-Fill Map: RCP Electoral Count No Toss Ups Obama vs. McCain
You are correct. I looked at a CA poll today ... it was a month old. In the poll, the only demographic that Romney won was the over 60 or 65. Those that had the ability to flee have fled.
What I did was use the 2008 electoral map- all states that went for McCain will go for Mitt. FL, VA, NC, IN, WI, NV, CO, OH will be in Romney's column IMO. This map shows Mitt winning 297-241. So even if Mitt loses Ohio (unlikely as he's leading nationally by 7 points [LV, Gallup]], he will win but by a very small margin.
201 East Lincoln Trail, Radcliff, KY
Like what happened to Carter?
I look at that map and shake my head. Not only does Minnesota have this stain on their record, they also have Jesse Ventura and Al Franken. What is wrong with those people?
http://www.theskanner.com/article/With-Zero-Percent-of-the-Black-Vote--What-if-Romney-Wins-2012-10-15
The thing is - I can almost see this happening. The reason is that Obama was not a normal candidate. He came out of nowhere, trounced the Clintons ... it wasn’t a normal popularity contest. People weren’t voting for ‘the better of the two’ ... they were voting for ‘the one, the perfect man.’ (the anti-Roarke in Rand terms)
Now that the illusion is gone, the intellectual hypnosis broken ... Now that he quit on his supporters, no longer has the glow ... looked at as simply a Chicago pol - he’s not a likable guy, doesn’t like people himself, can no longer shroud his record in “it’s part of a plan that’s BIIIGGGEEERRRRR THAN YOU” ...
Left as only a man - there is very little there. His youthful charm is gone, he looks weary, angry and unhappy, his policies haven’t worked (not that they ever could,) the Middle East is 1000 degrees hotter than it was after Bush, he’s gaunt, serious, a killjoy, an excuse maker, there is no vision. (Surprising that they couldn’t even whip up some kind of flowery rhetoric about how things would change in 2 years)
In fact - I think most dems would have a hard time arguing with Romney saying “Hey, I’m not Bush, and by the way, if you didn’t like Bush - this guy is worse.” We’re hated more, disrespected more, financial crisis turned into a bigger financial crisis ...
That’s why I’m still open to this thing being not an election that falls along a continuum, but a binary choice by America to ‘get the hell out.’
The Obama campaign was always a bandwagon campaign, almost a cult. The more people liked him, the more people followed the people that liked him. That dynamic is in reverse now. He’s betrayed his base, no one believes in HopeyChangey any more. The country is twice as divided as it was 4 years ago. Racial tensions are triple, but guilty whites have repented by electing him - the race card bank account is empty.
Now, he’s an un-cult.
There is a case to made that this will be a historic election. The gallup trend (I don’t trust their numbers, but I trust the trend) ... after a debate that most on the left and many on the right say he won ... and yet lost on every sub-question ... taxes, deficit, economy ... women swinging almost 20 points away from him ... losses in every single other demographic category ... I read that the Jewish vote is about half and half now.
I think there’s a one in three chance that blue states jump off the bandwagon as quickly as they jumped on it. He was never a normal candidate. People voted for an illusion. It’s not that the illusion fell short - it’s that they now see it was a complete illusion - the illusion has vanished entirely. ‘Falling short’ is a continuum thing. ‘Real vs Not Real’ is a binary thing. This is what I see in the liberals I know. Some say they will vote for him - but it seems only like needing to avoid cognitive dissonance regarding their initial choice.
Most just don’t want to talk about it much. No signs, no bumper stickers. No pride. Nobody believes in him anymore, and that’s because they never should have.
So I think we’re looking at a binary sort of election, and that introduces a certain volatility into the outcome.
As the Chechnyan terrorist leader said to Gary in Team America:
I Like Your .... Balls.
So I think we’re looking at a binary sort of election, and that introduces a certain volatility into the outcome.
I'm predicting Obama loses by 59% to 39% minimum spread in the popular vote, 395 to 140 Electoral Votes, and that any rioting will be confined to only a few inner-city locations.
We have NEVER seen this kind of lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters, and hype is their only hope.
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